Conference Championships Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Fantasy Football Matchups Analysis

There are just three games left in the NFL season as we enter the Conference round of the playoffs. Like last week, we have two matchups between teams that faced each other for the first time. Understanding how the games went the first time (or second in the case of the 49ers and Rams) is an important piece of information that helps us understand potential outcomes in the playoffs. This information is especially important when it comes to daily fantasy and fantasy playoff pools.

The first game between the Bengals and Chiefs occurred in Week 17 and was a high-powered shootout. Kansas City rushed out to an early lead before ultimately giving up a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Chiefs had a well-balanced attack, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns while their run game combined for 23 carries for 155 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. Six players had at least 25 receiving yards. Cincinnati leaned heavily on the passing game and started an amazing run of ariel production sparked by this game. Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns and Ja’Marr Chase had a record-setting day. The rookie finished with 11 receptions, 266 yards, and three touchdowns. This game should once again be an explosive affair between two of the better passing attacks in the NFL.

The 49ers finished the regular season with two victories against the Rams, including a crucial Week 18 win that cemented their spot in the playoffs. San Francisco showed their offensive versatility throughout both matchups. In the first victory, the 49ers passed for 182 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing 44 times for 156 yards and an additional score. The second game was led by Jimmy Garoppolo (316 passing yards and a touchdown) with a complimentary rushing attack (31 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown). The explosive Rams offense has struggled to get on track in both matchups, failing to throw for over 250 yards or rush for 70 yards in both games. It’s always difficult to beat a team three times, so this should be an interesting matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

• Game time: Sunday, January 30, 3:00 p.m.
• Game line: Kansas City -7
• Game total: 54

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams 

• Game time: Sunday, January 30, 6:30 p.m.
• Game line: Los Angeles -3.5
• Game total: 46

Must Start

Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)

Joe Burrow has continued to put up ridiculous numbers as he pushes the Bengals closer and closer to the Super Bowl. Burrow followed up a strong game in the Wild Card round (244 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions) by completing 75% of his passes for 348 yards and an interception in a last-second win over the Titans. Burrow now has at least 300 yards passing in five of his last seven games. Burrow will face off against a Kansas City secondary that he torched in Week 17 (446 yards and four touchdowns). Kansas City allowed the third-most points to quarterbacks in fantasy this season (19.4) and could struggle to slow down the Bengals' passing attack once again in the playoffs.

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Patrick Mahomes consistently takes his play to another level in the playoffs and this season is no different. In two games, Mahomes is completing 75% of his passes for 782 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception. He’s also added 10 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes will once again try to get Kansas City into the Super Bowl by avenging a loss against the Bengals in Week 17. Mahomes threw for only 259 yards and two touchdowns in that game, so they will need a better effort from him to continue on this postseason. Cincinnati allowed just 16.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, the second-best mark of any team remaining in the Super Bowl hunt.

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)

There is some risk in trusting Matthew Stafford against the 49ers this week, but he has starting upside given his play throughout the postseason. First, the good. Stafford is completing nearly 75% of his passes for 568 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions during this postseason run. He has also added two rushing touchdowns in his first two games. However, Stafford struggled in both losses against the 49ers this season. Stafford completed 64% of his passes against San Francisco in 2021 and threw for 481 yards and four touchdowns with four interceptions. Stafford can have a huge game any time he takes the field, but it will be interesting to see if he can overcome his issues with the 49ers secondary that continually showed up this year.  

Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)

Joe Mixon has struggled to produce on the ground during the playoffs, but is still finding ways to be fantasy-relevant. Mixon has just 102 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries through two games. However, his role in the passing game has helped him put together a solid playoff run. In two games, Mixon has caught 10 of 12 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. That has made him very productive in PPR scoring formats. In his first game against Kansas City, Mixon had just 12 carries for 46 yards but added seven receptions on eight targets for 40 yards. Look for Mixon to keep up his receiving role, especially with the defense dedicated to stopping Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC)

Jerick McKinnon took the lead role in the backfield in the Wild Card round with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams out and didn’t give it up once Edwards-Helaire returned to the lineup last week. McKinnon has at least a 70% snap share in his last two games, carrying the ball 22 times for 85 yards. His role in the passing game has also solidified during this year’s playoff run. McKinnon has caught 11 of 13 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown so far this postseason. If Darrel Williams is still too injured to play in this round, then look for McKinnon to continue to get the high-value touches in the Chiefs’ offense. Kansas City had a great game on the ground in their first matchup against the Bengals, with Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore combining for 17 carries, 125 yards, and two touchdowns while adding four receptions for 27 yards.

Cam Akers (RB, LAR)

Cam Akers hasn’t been productive in his remarkable return from an Achilles’ tendon tear, but his workload keeps increasing. In the Wild Card round, Akers played in just 53% of the team’s offensive snaps and had 17 carries for 55 yards and one reception for 40 yards. Akers had less production against the Buccaneers (24 carries for 48 yards and three receptions for 20 yards) but played in 81% of the team’s snaps. Tampa Bay is notoriously stingy against running backs, so look for Akers to bounce back against San Francisco this weekend. The Rams allowed 16.3 fantasy points to running backs this season thanks to 14 total touchdowns surrendered.

Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)

Elijah Mitchell has played a higher percentage of his team’s offensive snaps in the playoffs than he did at any point in the regular season. Through two games, Mitchell has 44 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown. He’s also added four receptions for seven yards (despite having -11 yards against the Cowboys in their Wild Card matchup). Mitchell had solid performances against the Rams this season, totaling 48 carries for 176 yards on the year. His role as the lead back in San Francisco is locked in, which gives him a high floor due to volume.

Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)/ Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)

The Bengals wide receiver duo remains a must-start regardless of matchup. Ja’Marr Chase has been more consistent lately and has shown the ability to take over games. Chase has 14 receptions on 18 targets for 225 yards through two playoff games. He’s had at least five receptions and 100 receiving yards in four of the Bengals’ last five games. Chase went nuclear in his first game against the Chiefs, accounting for 11 receptions on 12 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns. Kansas City will likely try to scheme against him better this week, but ultimately it shouldn’t matter. Tee Higgins has been stellar in his own right and earned the trust of fantasy managers as a solid WR2. Higgins has caught eight of 13 targets in the playoffs for 106 yards. He had four games with over 100 receiving yards after Week 12, although he did fall flat in his first matchup against the Chiefs (three receptions for 62 yards). Given how the first matchup played out, Higgins could find more room to operate if Kansas City decides to dedicate their game plan to controlling Ja’Marr Chase.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

 Tyreek Hill had an inconsistent season (by his standards over the years), but has turned the corner since the playoffs began. Hill has combined for 16 receptions on 18 targets for 207 yards and two touchdowns in Kansas City’s two playoff games this season. Hill is arguably the most explosive player in the league and the Kansas City play-callers are finding creative ways to get him the ball to maximize his ability to gain chunk plays. Hill had an underwhelming day against the Bengals in Week 17 (six catches on 10 targets for 40 yards) but should get the volume he needs to have another big game in the playoffs.

Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)

Deebo Samuel has continued his dual-threat role that started in the regular season as the NFL playoffs have gone on. Through two games, the hybrid offensive weapon has six receptions on seven targets for 82 yards while adding 20 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown. Samuel is a one-of-a-kind chess piece that can attack defenses in a multitude of ways, making him nearly impossible to scheme against. In two games against the Rams this season, Samuel totaled nine receptions on 11 targets for 192 yards, 13 carries for 81 yards, and three total touchdowns. Samuel hobbled off the field at the end of the Packers game, but logged a practice on Wednesday, suggesting he will be good to go this weekend.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

What more can be said about Cooper Kupp? The veteran receiver caught nine of 11 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers, including a deep pass from Matthew Stafford to get Los Angeles in range for the game-winning field goal. Kupp now has 100 receiving yards in six of his last eight games and has found the end zone in his last four contests. Kupp put up huge games in both matchups against the 49ers this season, finishing the regular season with 18 catches on 20 targets for 240 yards and a touchdown despite Matthew Stafford’s struggles. Kupp is as dependable as any skill player remaining in the playoffs at this point.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

The playoffs have started and Travis Kelce is back to providing high-level production from the tight end position. In two playoff games, Kelce has 13 catches on 16 targets for 204 yards and two touchdowns. The veteran tight end is on a roll when it comes to finding the end zone, scoring six times in his last five games after a four-game scoring drought earlier in the season. Kelce was held in check during the first matchup against the Bengals, catching five of seven targets for just 25 yards and a touchdown. Even if his yardage is suppressed again, few players remaining in the playoffs have as much touchdown upside as Kelce, especially when his team gets inside the red zone.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

Tyler Higbee isn’t the flashiest tight end remaining in the playoffs, but of all the options he’s getting the most consistent workload. Since Week 12, Higbee has at least six targets and four receptions in five of six games. He also has at least 41 receiving yards in all six of the Rams contests and has found the end zone twice. Higbee was targeted 13 times against the 49ers this year which resulted in nine receptions for 75 yards and three touchdowns. Higbee is a safe way to pivot off the bigger names in DFS or playoff fantasy leagues this week.

Consider Sitting

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)

The 49ers find themselves in the NFC Championship game this week despite underwhelming performances from Jimmy Garoppolo in the playoffs. Through two games, the 49ers starting quarterback is completing just 59% of his passes for 303 yards and two interceptions. Garoppolo had some success against the Rams this season, throwing for 498 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions. If San Francisco is going to advance in the playoffs yet again they will likely rely on their run game and limit Jimmy G’s passing.

Sony Michel (RB, LAR)

Cam Akers’ return has officially relegated Sony Michel to a minor role in the Los Angeles offense. Michel saw enough work in the Wild Card round (13 carries for 58 yards on 40% snap share) to give him a chance going forward, but he was barely used against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Michel played on just 19% of the team’s snaps and had one carry for four yards and two receptions for -4 yards. Unless something happens to Akers (or the Rams get a massive lead), then Michel just can’t be trusted at this point.

Van Jefferson (WR, LAR)

Van Jefferson has been relegated to the fourth option in the Rams offense as the playoffs have gone on. Stafford has relied on Cooper Kupp all season, but the offense is targeted Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyler Higbee at a higher rate or utilizing Cam Akers out of the backfield. In two playoff games, Jefferson has just three receptions on four targets for 70 yards despite playing at least 65% of the team’s snaps. Jefferson is just hard to trust at this point, although he does have some touchdown upside and has shown the ability to get loose if the defense is too busy focusing on the other pieces of the offense.

Upside Plays

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned from his injury against the Bills and played in 30% of the team’s offensive snaps. CEH finished the game with seven carries for 60 yards and added a reception for nine yards. Jerick McKinnon’s emergence has once again capped the second-year running back’s role in the passing game, but he will likely still have a goal in the run game and looked explosive last week. If Kansas City gets out to a lead, Edwards-Helaire will have a chance to produce in the run game and give some fantasy value.

Byron Pringle (WR, KC)

Byron Pringle has created a consistent role for himself in Kansas City’s passing attack as their WR2 and third most consistent option in the passing game. Pringle caught five of seven targets for 29 yards and a touchdown against the Bills in the Divisional round. Pringle has at least seven targets and five receptions in four of his last five games. During that stretch, he’s also added at least 35 receiving yards in each game and scored five touchdowns. This game will likely have shootout conditions, which should mean a repeat of targets for Pringle.

Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)

Mecole Hardman doesn’t have a big role on offense for Kansas City, but they are creative in how they use him. Hardman had just one target and one catch for 26 yards against Buffalo, but he added two carries for 31 yards and a touchdown in that game. Despite a lesser role on offense, Hardman has at least 49 all-purpose yards in the last four games for Kansas City. He is inconsistent but could get more work if the Chiefs need to keep pace with the Bengals this weekend.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

Brandon Aiyuk’s confusing second season has continued into the playoffs. From Weeks 16 to the Wild Card game, Aiyuk had 24 targets, 19 receptions, 307 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Aiyuk came plummeting back to Earth against Green Bay last week, receiving just one target and finishing with zero catches. Aiyuk’s production goes with Jimmy Garoppolo, and with Jimmy G. struggling to throw the ball then Aiyuk is little more than a dart throw. Aiyuk could bust if the 49ers can get the lead and control the clock, but could have a huge role if they’re forced to throw and keep up with Los Angeles.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LAR)

Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t find the end zone against the Buccaneers last week, but still had one of his more productive games as a receiver with the Rams. Beckham Jr. caught six of eight targets for 69 yards against Tampa Bay even though the Rams held a big lead up until the fourth quarter. OBJ’s fantasy production has relied on finding the end zone, so it was nice to see him have a solid day as a receiver without the touchdown. If the 49ers' offense can score points, then Beckham Jr. could have a great day. Odell Beckham Jr. was held in check against the 49ers this season, catching four of eight targets for 36 yards in both matchups combined.

Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)

Tyler Boyd was once again relegated to the fourth option in the passing game in a tough matchup against the Titans in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Boyd caught two of three targets for 17 yards against the Titans and finished fifth on the team in both targets and receptions. Boyd has shown the ability to put together big games when he gets passing volume but typically needs to find the end zone to have a big fantasy impact. Boyd had a four-game stretch with a touchdown (including Week 17’s game against Kansas City), so he can produce in a shootout.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

The 49ers' offense has become extremely run-heavy, which has severely limited George Kittle’s ability to have a big impact in the passing attack. Kittle has nine targets, five receptions, and 81 yards in the playoffs. Kittle has just two games above 60 receiving yards since Week 14. Kittle had mixed production in games against the Rams this season, finishing with 10 receptions on 14 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. It could be another quiet game for Kittle unless the Rams force San Francisco into a negative game script.

C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN)

C.J. Uzomah has seen his role in the Bengals’ offense grow at the end of the season and into the playoffs. From Weeks 1-15, the veteran tight end averaged 3.6 targets, 2.9 receptions, 30.4 receiving yards. He did have five touchdowns, but they came in just three games (all before Week 8). From Week 16 to the Divisional round, Uzomah is averaging 6.7 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 50.7 yards with one touchdown. Teams have been dedicated to trying to stop Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside, which has opened up space in the middle of the field for the tight end. 

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