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Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

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In Week 8 we witnessed a few unfamiliar names register QB1 performances. Mike White finished as QB-2 in his first career start, Justin Fields seemed to have turned a corner to finish as QB-5 and Geno Smith took advantage of a great matchup against a bad Jaguars defense to finish as QB-8. Josh Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz and Cooper Rush were the other QB1's. T.J. Hockenson saw 11 targets to finish as TE-1 on the week while Brevin Jordan took advantage of garbage time to finish as TE-3. Dan Arnold continues to grow more comfortable in the Jaguars offense and saw a whopping 10 targets and was able to haul in eight of them for 68 yards to finish as TE-5.

The top-12 wide receivers from Week 8 were A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Cedrick Wilson. Wilson came through because he had a 73-yard touchdown catch from Cooper Rush and Brandin Cooks took care of business in garbage time. The main surprises from Week 8 were the poor performances from D.J. Moore and Justin Jefferson whose offenses both struggled this week.

Running back was a little surprising in Week 8 as Michael Carter finished as RB-1 and in that same game the Jets did everything within their power to slow down Ja'Marr Chase but Joe Mixon burned them for two touchdowns, finishing as RB-2. Two Eagles running backs, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard, finished inside the top-12 and Elijah Mitchell continued to get it done, finishing with 137 yards and a score to finish as RB-7. Darrell Henderson, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Melvin Gordon and Ty Johnson rounded out the top-12.  Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 8 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

 

Mike White, N.Y. Jets

Week 8 Stats: 37-of-45 passing, 405 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 5 carries, -1 yards, 2 PT

Mike White made his first career NFL start for the Jets in Week 8 and he went off for 405 yards to finish as QB-2 on the week. White didn't really throw the ball down the field a ton, opting to take what the defense gave him. The Bengals were exploited all day with passes into the flat and intermediate areas and they seemingly failed to make any adjustments. The Bengals defense also missed several tackles which allowed shorter throws to go for bigger gains.

Bottom Line: The Jets play the Colts on Thursday night and while their defense is pretty good, they have given up the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year, including a QB1 performance from Ryan Tannehill in Week 8. White is a viable option in 2-QB leagues this week but other than that there's at least 20 more viable options than him heading into this week.

 

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Week 8 Stats: 19-of-27 passing, 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD

Justin Fields had his best game of the season in Week 8 against the 49ers. Things seemed to slow down for Fields and he played with confidence. Fields also destroyed the 49ers on the ground which really elevated him. The Bears called a few designed runs for Fields but he was also quick to take off and run at times if he didn't see any of his receivers get open.

Bottom Line: Justin Fields is starting to come around which is good but it's hard to rely on him and trust him in shallower leagues unless you're desperate. If Fields can put together two or three consecutive good performances, he may emerge as a stud later in the season. Fields should be rostered in all leagues, but we need to see more out of him before we start him in shallower leagues.

 

Elijah Moore, N.Y. Jets

Week 8 Stats: 1 carry, 4 yards, 6 targets, 6 catch, 67 yards

Elijah Moore played just 30 snaps (35.7%) against the Bengals but when he was in the game he was heavily involved. It's also worth noting that Mike White narrowly missed Moore on a deep ball which would have gone for a touchdown that would have put him over 100 yards receiving.

Bottom Line: Elijah Moore is a budding star and you should pick him up now before he has a full on breakout game.

 

Michael Carter, N.Y. Jets

Week 8 Stats: 15 carries, 77 yards, 1 TD, 14 targets, 9 catches, 95 yards

Michael Carter had the second-most targets in the NFL this week behind only Michael Pittman Jr. who had 15. Carter played more than 70% of the Jets offensive snaps for the second week in a row and he really looks to be taking full control of the job. The Bengals missed several tackles this week and didn't do a great job defending the flat which allowed Carter to absolutely crush them in the passing game.

Bottom Line: Michael Carter has a tough matchup in Week 9 against a Colts defense that doesn't give up much production to running backs. Carter is still an RB2 heading into this week but you may want to temper expectations. Carter is available in 32% of Yahoo leagues so you may want to check your waiver wire just to make sure he's not available. You never know.

 

Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 8 Stats: 12 carries, 57, 2 TD

Kenneth Gainwell was supposed to carry the load with Miles Sanders out of the lineup but instead he only played 30.8% of the snaps, while Boston Scott played 44.6% and Jordan Howard played 24.6%. Both Scott and Howard carried the ball 12 times while Gainwell carried the ball 13 times towards the end of the game to grind down the clock. The Eagles have been a very pass-heavy team so far this year but they absolutely dominated the Lions and didn't need to throw much.

Bottom Line: I think it's safe to expect similar usage from Jordan Howard in Week 9 because the Eagles play the Chargers who get absolutely gashed in the running game. Jordan Howard will likely be viable for a second week in a row because the Eagles will likely try to pound the rock trying to control the ball against the Chargers who play with two high safeties and basically invite teams to run the ball against them.

 

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Week 8 Stats: 10 carries, 47 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 3 catches, 15 yards, 1 TD

Melvin Gordon played 56.6% of the Broncos offensive snaps in Week 8 which is his usual compliment, compared to just 43.4% for Javonte Williams who logged under 50% of the snaps for the fourth week in a row. While Gordon out-snapped Williams, he received just one more carry than him and saw three targets compared to the four that Williams received. This is a timeshare but Gordon has been scoring more which makes him the higher fantasy producer.

Bottom Line: Javonte Williams appeared to be a little banged up towards the end of the game against Washington this week so monitor that situation, because if Williams isn't a full-go Gordon may see a lot of work against Dallas in Week 9. Use Gordon while you can but Williams is clearly the future in Denver. You may want try to sell-high on Gordon in a trade.

 

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Week 8 Stats: 12 carries, 27 yards, 5 targets, 5 catches, 24 yards, 1 fumble

D'Andre Swift failed to take advantage of a good matchup against an Eagles defense that had given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. In the second half Swift fumbled, the Eagles recovered it and took it the other way for a touchdown. After that fumble, Jermar Jefferson played some snaps down the stretch and actually scored. Swift didn't play more snaps with Williams out of the lineup, he actually logged 71% which is the least he's played since Week 3.

Bottom Line: The Lions are on bye this week so D'Andre Swift will have to wait until Week 10 to bounce back from this hiccup. Swift leads all running backs with 47 catches and 415 yards so he's actually a good buy-low player after that performance, especially in PPR leagues.

 

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 8 Stats: 7 targets, 4 catches, 44 yards, 1 TD

Eric Ebron missed Week 8 which led to a larger role for Pat Freiermuth who played a season-high 78.4% of the Steelers offensive snaps. With JuJu Smith-Schuster out of the lineup Freiermuth is becoming one of Ben Roethlisberger's favorite targets in the middle of the field.

Bottom Line: The Steelers play the Bears in Week 9 who have been very good against tight ends this season so it's tough to trust him this week. Freiermuth's long-term outlook is very promising and he should prove to be a viable option down the road this season even in shallower leagues.



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