Surprising Winners from the NFL Draft - Wide Receivers

The NFL Draft has come and gone, so we now have a complete picture of each team's plans on offense. While we'll still see some player movement before the season begins, aside from an Aaron Rodgers or Zach Ertz trade, there won't be anything that really moves the needle.

There were some surprising decisions in the draft where teams decided not to invest premium draft capital in a positional need. Today, we're going to focus on this impact on wide receivers. There were a few teams who were expected to target a wide receiver early in the draft but opted to address another area of need, which has major fantasy implications.

We'll take a look at why wide receivers like A.J. Brown, Brandin Cooks, and Allen Lazard were major winners following their team's decision to avoid using an early pick at their positions.

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A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

2020 Season

Targets	Target Share	Air Yard Share	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	PPR PPG
106	26.17%	35.18%	70	1075	11	17.7 (WR6)

A.J. Brown had a fantastic sophomore season, putting aside any concerns over target share in a run-heavy offense. Brown put up 106 targets (37th in NFL) despite missing two games. He likely would have eclipsed 120 targets if he stayed healthy, especially since he came on strong down the stretch, totaling 29 targets in his last three games (includes playoff game vs. BAL). The Titans opted to let Corey Davis (23.47% target share), Jonnu Smith (15.48% target share), and Adam Humphries (14.77% target share) sign elsewhere in free agency.

Their only replacement was former Rams wide receiver Josh Reynolds (81 targets in 2020), so the team was expected to use high draft capital to target a wide receiver in the draft. Instead, they used three of their first four picks on defensive players, while the other pick was on an offensive lineman. The Titans traded up to take wide receiver Dez Fitzpatrick in the fourth round, a 23-year-old out of Louisville who isn't much of a threat to Brown's target share.

While Reynolds will likely set career-highs across the board due to his expanded role, this won't affect Brown's volume. The stage is set for an absolute monster season for Brown. The Titans began to feature him in the offense more down the stretch and they did not add any prominent prospect in the draft. Brown can easily approach 140 targets this season, which gives him mouth-watering upside due to his playmaking ability and touchdown equity. Brown is my overall WR1 heading into the 2021 season.

 

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

2020 Season

Targets	Target Share	Air Yard Share	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	PPR PPG
119	23.85%	30.17%	81	1150	6	15.5 (WR16)

Brandin Cooks addressed injury concerns with a healthy and productive 15-game season in his first year with the Texans. Will Fuller signed with the Dolphins, which is huge for Cooks' fantasy value. Cooks caught 29-of-41 targets for 431 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games following Fuller's season-ending suspension. He was a target hog during that span, posting a 29.73% target share and 45.52% air yard share. The Texans had limited draft capital in this year's draft, but they were still expected to target a wide receiver.

The team took wide receiver Nico Collins out of Michigan in the third round and tight end Brevin Jordan from Miami in the fifth round. However, both of these players do not represent significant threats to Cooks' volume. Collins is a deep-threat similar to Cooks, so it's hard to expect much in his rookie season, especially with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Jordan has a chance to ascend this depth chart, but as a first-year tight end, he's also not someone to worry about.

Deshaun Watson's days in Houston are all but over, but that doesn't mean there isn't fantasy value to be had in this offense. Cooks is primed for heavy volume as the main target for the Texans. While the team will run fewer plays with Taylor at the helm, the downgrade at quarterback and pace is mitigated by Will Fuller's departure. Cooks has fallen into the boring veteran tier of wide receivers. Add in the fact that he plays for one of the worst teams in the NFL, and you'll likely see him fall in drafts. Take advantage of this and buy this high-volume deep threat.

 

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

2020 Season

Targets	Target Share	Air Yard Share	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns	PPR PPG
46	14.29%	12.94%	33	451	3	9.8 (WR52)

Allen Lazard had a potential breakout season derailed by injury in 2020. He got off to a terrific start, catching 13-of-17 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns in his first three games. After a breakout performance on Sunday Night Football where he caught six passes for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, Lazard was forced to miss the next six games with a core muscle injury. Once he returned, it took time to get re-integrated into the offense, so he couldn't get back on track.

The Packers were expected to target a wide receiver in the first or second round of this year's draft, but they opted to wait until the third round to select Clemson's Amari Rodgers. Rodgers is undersized at 5-foot-9 but stout at 212 pounds. He should take over the slot role in this offense. This should not affect Lazard, who finished with the third-most slot snaps among Packers' receivers, behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Davante Adams. It's also hard to see Rodgers making much of an impact in his rookie year, so Lazard looks like he'll retain his role as the WR2 in this offense.

Aaron Rodgers might have played his last down in Green Bay, which is obviously bad news for this passing game. However, there could be a silver lining here, as Rodgers force-fed Adams with targets (36.19% target share). Perhaps with Jordan Love at quarterback, we could see the volume distributed a bit more evenly than it was in 2020. This could help mitigate the decrease in efficiency and touchdown upside for Lazard. It's likely that he'll see a career-high in targets in 2021. Let your competitors target the flashy new toy in Amari Rodgers, and go after the boring fourth-year receiver instead.

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