RADIO
What's up readers. Week 13 is upon us along with Fourth of July weekend, and nothing is more American than baseball. If you've been following along with this series all season, you know the drill. If not, this article is to help you uncover starting pitcher options that may have been overlooked in your league or dropped after a poor start.
As always I include options for shallow and deeper leagues. I also add my list of pitchers discussed previously in at the end of the article with ownership levels to boot. Make sure to check them out, and grab any that are still out there.
Don’t forget to check out our Starting Pitcher Matchups & Streaming Tool for expert guidance during the week too, including what pitchers to start/sit for seasonal and DFS leagues. Let’s get to it.
Editor’s Note: to read about even more waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.
Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Shallow Leagues
Yovani Gallardo (TEX, SP)
OWNED IN: 58% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in 10 + team leagues
I made the foolish decision to cut Gallardo in a 14-team league early this season and I've been paying for it since. Surprisingly there's still a good portion of you that can still invest, but the main question is has the ship already set sail?
Gallardo was dominant this weekend vs the high powered Jays, throwing 8.1 shutout innings with two walks and four strikeouts. Gallardo now has 23.1 consecutive scoreless innings and before that start he had compiled a 0.72 ERA and limited hitters to a .191/.250/.227 line in the month of June. Safe to say he is on fire.
To this point Gallardo has posted a 2.72/1.16 pitching line with a 70/28 K/BB ratio over 96 innings, very respectable and much more than the Rangers envisioned they'd be getting. Both the ERA and WHIP would be career lows while his .275 BABIP would match his lowest ever (2009). His K and BB rates are in line with his career to date but his ground-ball rate (53.1%) would be his highest ever. So what changed?
Gallardo Dealin'
One key to his success has been his slider. He's increased the usage by 4% (28.4) and according to Pitchf/x it's been his best pitch (3.9). In the month of June, Gallardo's slider has produced a .143 AVG and .238 SLG while hitters have whiffed 14.2% of the time. Another key factor is his curve ball. He can locate the loopy curve but mainly uses it to bait hitters, and hitters have flailed at the curve ball to the tune of a .125 AVG. Now that his fastball hovers around 90 MPH, both his off speed offerings are critical to his success in 2015.
The advanced numbers don't seem to agree on Gallardo maintaining this success. His FIP is 3.53 and his SIERRA is 3.86, aka they expect regression. If you dig a big deeper you can start to understand the reasoning behind those numbers. While Gallardo's GB rate is a career-high, the Texas Rangers infielders have a league-worst 44 errors among them.
I tend to agree with the advanced numbers that regression is due, but even if Gallardo records a 3.50 ERA that's still serviceable for deep fantasy rosters. If he's available in any league above 10 teams he should be added, and for 42% of you the opportunity awaits.
Marco Estrada (TOR, SP)
OWNED IN: 26% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVER: Stream Watch / Add in 12+ team leagues / AL-Only
Estrada made headlines this past week with his perfect-game bid vs Tampa Bay which included this incredible Josh Donaldson catch. If you haven't seen it I demand you click on that link.
Estrada ended up with 8.2 scoreless frames with two hits, no walks, and 10 strikeouts. Estrada now has a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 63/23 K/BB ratio over 73 innings. He has allowed one earned run in his last 15.2 innings and has a 3.10 ERA in his past six starts.
Estrada was last fantasy relevant in 2013 for the Brewers when he posted a 3.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 21 starts. The AL East is not the ideal situation for pitching; the Yankees and Orioles join Toronto in the top four of runs per game. That said, Estrada's ability to limit base runners in his career (1.17 WHIP) should help him avoid big innings. In addition his change up has been extremely effective to this point, limiting hitters to a .159 AVG while producing a Pitchf/x value of 7.7.
I'm buying Estrada in deeper leagues, although I caution using him in his next start vs Boston. He threw 129 pitches his last outing and 118 the one before, so Estrada may see his pitch count limited to reduce his workload. In addition the BoSox are the only team to rough him up in the month of June (5 IP, 5 ER). Regardless, he should be added in 12 team leagues and larger.
Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Deeper Leagues
Ivan Nova (NYY, SP)
OWNED IN: 14% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Stream Worthy / Add in 12+ team leagues
Nova came back from Tommy John surgery this past week and was everything Yankees fans could've hoped for, completing 6.2 innings of shutout ball with three hits (one XBH) and two walks to go with one strikeout. Yes, it was the Phillies, but still a good outing nonetheless. Nova's last full season came in 2013, when he started 20 games and produced a 3.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 116/44 K/BB ratio over 139.1 innings.
One takeaway from first start was his four-seam fastball was the same velocity as it was pre-TJ, averaging 94 MPH. He mixed in his change up more often to compliment his curve, perhaps to help alleviate the stress the curve places on his elbow. Again the sample size is small for now but there's reason for optimism.
His next outing is at LAA so we should have a better understanding of where Nova stands in regards to comparative pitchers. Both Pujols and Trout are slugging over .590 vs RHP so this should be a more formidable litmus test for Nova's value. Available in 86% of leagues, it's likely you can buy a share if your team is weak in the pitching department.
Andrew Heaney (LAA, SP)
OWNED IN: 4% of Fleaflicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Stream Worthy / Add in 14+ team leagues / AL-Only
A Rotoballer asked me to look into Heaney's situation and I'm a man of the people. Andrew Heaney was the return the Angels saw for Howie Kendrick this offseason and they have to be pleased with his Angels debut. Heaney was recalled for Matt Shoemaker's start in the rotation and was superb vs the Astros, hurling six innings of one-run ball with five whiffs, five hits, and a walk on just 83 pitches. Video highlights can be found here. Safe to say Heaney earned himself another start which will come due to Jered Weaver (hip) needing some extra time to heal.
Heaney wasn't overly impressive in the minors this season but he has shown an ability to limit free passes throughout his career. His arsenal includes a sinker and curve while mixing in a change up. He isn't going to dominate anyone with his offerings but he has the tools to be a middle-rotation pitcher for most teams. I have a tough time seeing Heaney develop into a top 30 SP anytime soon, although he has the potential to develop into a backend SP for mixed leagues. Anaheim is a good park for Heaney as well, ranking in the bottom five of all stadiums since 2014 for runs.
For now it's tough to buy in considering his run in the rotation may be short-term combined with his next scheduling outings (vs NYY, @ COL) . Fantasy players looking for a stream may want to look elsewhere for Heaney's next start vs the Yankees; New York is 5th in MLB in R, HR, and RBI vs LHP this season. For now keep Heaney on your watch list, and if he continues to excel consider making a move. At 4% ownership, it's like you can be patient with this one.
Other Pitchers Previously Highlighted to Consider
In Order of Ownership %
Taijuan Walker (SEA, SP / 66%; up 13%); Jaime Garcia (STL, SP / 63%; up 9%) Noah Syndergaard (NYM, SP / 59% ; down 4%); Jesse Chavez (OAK, SP / 55% ; up 3%); Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL, SP / 53% ; up 2%); Wei-Yin Chen (BAL, SP / 51%); Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP / 48% ; down 12%); Jesse Hahn (OAK, SP / 40% ; up 6%); James Paxton (DL) (SEA, SP / 38% ; down 3%); Mike Leake (CIN, SP / 31% ; up 1%); Charlie Morton (PIT, SP / 30% ; down 11%); Matt Moore (DL) (TB, SP / 25% ; up 7%); Chase Anderson (ARI, SP / 19% ; down 1%); Brett Anderson (LAD, SP / 19%); Roenis Elias (SEA, SP / 9% ; down 3%); Wandy Rodriguez (TEX, SP / 7% ; down 3%); Tsuyoshi Wada (SP, CHC / 4% ; no change)
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