Tape Tells All: Sterling Shepard's Week 8 Performance

After a week off because of #life, we're back with another edition of Tape Tells All.

This week, we're talking about New York Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard, who is looking pretty good since returning to the football field. Is he a consistent fantasy option going forward? Can we really trust someone in this Giants offense?

Let's turn to the tape and the data and see what we find.

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Background Information

It's hard to believe, but Sterling Shepard is in his fifth NFL season. A second round pick in 2016, it seems like we've been expecting Shepard to be The Guy in New York for awhile, especially since the Giants traded away Odell Beckham Jr.

But that hasn't really materialized. And this year, a toe injury in Week 2 looked to derail Shepard's chances at finally breaking through, as did the emergence of Darius Slayton across the field. The Slayton and Daniel Jones connection grew immensely at the end of 2019, to the point that it seemed that Slayton was set to steal the lead receiver role away from Shepard.

Not so fast, though. In the three full games that Shepard has played this season, the former Sooner has been targeted 24 times, including 10 times in Week 8.

In the two weeks since Shepard has returned, his snap percentage trails Slayon's 91.79 to 73.13.

But Shepard's had 30 percent of the air yards in those two games to Slayton's 32.98 percent -- so, a much tighter situation there than the snap counts might suggest. Shepard has out-targeted Slayton 18 to 12 and has four red zone targets to Slayton's zero.

Slayton had eight red zone targets over the first six games, so it seems clear that Shepard is sliding into that role as Jones's main wide receiver target when the ball needs to get into the end zone, yeah?

Anyway, let's look specifically at Week 8.

 

The Game

It's been a long week -- hi, the presidential election -- so this week, I didn't have the time to actually make video clips for each play. It's a long process to do so -- I've got to do some screen recording, then I have to crop the screen recording, then I have to convert the recording to a different format, and then I have to make GIFs -- so, instead, I'm watching all of Shepard's 10 targets and writing about them in list form.

Let's start:

1. This first target is less of a "target" and more of a sweep play. Shepard winds up gaining nothing on this play, but it takes a long time for him to gain that nothing. He starts by going right then runs into a wall, so he reverses field. But the Buccaneers Defense has speed and is able to stop Shepard. Good effort play here and he probably should have lost yards.
2. Quick out rout with Shepard as the only receiver on the right side of the formation.
3. Shepard gets 12 yards on this one. Starts out wide on the right side and gets a HUGE cushion. Is able to turn around and make one of the easiest catches you'll see along the sideline. He's at the top of the picture here. Look at the cushion:
   
4. Another one of around the same length as the third catch, but this time Shepard is on the left of the formation and slants inside, not outside. Has a pretty good cushion again. Shepard is doing a good job finding and exploiting space.
5. Oops. This target does not go well, as the Daniel Jones pass gets picked off. Jones was under pressure and looks like he just throws this ball way short of where Shepard was. Maybe he expected Shepard to curl back to the ball? Maybe it was a really bad throw?
6. Deep attempt! Jones has Shepard on the streak here, but the ball gets throw just a hair in front of where it needed to be thrown to actually hook up on this play. So close, but nothing winds up happening.
7. Later in the quarter comes one of my favorite plays of this game. Shepard shifts across the formation before the snap, then the Giants offense all appears to be heading to the right. That leaves Shepard wide open for the screen pass, and with a solid block, he's able to run after the catch and gain 15 yards on 2nd and 16. Great fun here.
8. Well, this isn't going to work on third down. Shepard has a nice cushion again, but he's positioned well short of the first down marker, and once the ball gets to Shepard, the defense collapses on him.
9. FOURTH DOWN CONVERSION. The Buccaneers defense lets Shepard get 20 here, as he finds a soft spot down the field and Jones gets him the ball. This is something Shepard appears to be very good at: finding the exact spot he needs to be in to catch a pass.
10. The very next play, Jones finds Shepard again, this time out on the sideline, where he's able to make the contested catch.

 

Fantasy Impact

So, what do we think of Shepard going forward?

He made some solid catches, and aside from that screen play, none of his production felt abnormal, which is always a good sign. Shepard wasn't finding success via fluke; he was getting the ball as part of the natural play of the Giants offense.

That's good, as was the fact that he appeared to be the first read for Jones a good bit of the time, and that he was able to find so much open space over and over and over.

Shepard's going to keep getting targets, which is going to continue giving him chances to find success, especially with Washington and Philly games coming up before the bye.

Shepard is, in my opinion, moving into solid WR3 territory. While it'd be nice if he had a more trustworthy quarterback getting him the football, the game scripts should be in his favor most weeks, and his target share should give him a low-end WR4 floor most of the time too.

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