RADIO
In the NFL and fantasy football, things can change as easily as the snap of a finger from campaign to campaign. One season, somebody breaks a record, and the next, they are fighting for targets and struggling to produce.
Based on the game script, chemistry, and availability of weapons, targets can fluctuate for pass-catchers. In a position like TE, targets could be hard to come by at all depending on which team you are on. Naturally, some TEs could have breakout seasons too. Nevertheless, if your last name is not Kittle, Kelce, or Waller, you may have to work extra hard to snatch away targets from WRs.
Heading into 2022, there are quite a few TEs who should be due for a target regression. Let’s look at some candidates who are due for fewer targets come next season.
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2022 TE Target Regression Candidates
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Have you looked at the Miami Dolphins depth chart recently? No? Let me paint you a simple picture. Miami has four new WRs and two newcomer rushers. Those include the likes of Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Preston Williams. Those don't include impressive rookie Jaylen Waddle, now into his second year as a pro and already in sync with QB Tua Tagovailoa. Even if Gesicki was (he's not) the best skill-position player in Florida, odds are he is going to suffer a dent in terms of volume next season, inevitably.
Mikey had never reached 90+ targets before last season. He topped his prior high mark (89) by 25 targets in 2021 (112) and obviously caught more passes than ever (73) though his touchdown numbers sucked (just two of them) and his receiving yards (780) weren't that separated from his 2020 mark (703 with six TD) on a much much lower volume of targets. Not only did Gesicki play below the bar, he should have set being the no. 1 option of the Fins, but he's also about to get fewer targets come next season. Not liking this situation and upside just one bit.
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
Old pal Zacharias spent last season with two squads, his beloved Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals. All in all, his 112 targets were similar to those he was getting before missing five games in the 2020 campaign. Do we believe that will happen again next season? I'm not really into this one, folks. Ertz's volume went up, yes, but the Cards and the Eagles receiving corps sucked to incredible extents because of a lack of talent or bad injury luck.
Ertz himself put up a good-not-great 10.6 FPPG on the two franchises he played for, definitely bouncing back from his putrid 2020 mark of 7.0 but still ways below his bonafide peak in the 2016 to 2019 seasons (never below 13.1 FPPG). Arizona just drafted a new tight end (the best of his class), added a WR1 in Marquise Brown, and is bringing back A.J. Green after the veteran tested the free-agency waters earlier this offseason. Oh, and a certain DeAndre Hopkins should be healthy--though he'll miss six games with a suspension. Quite a steep climb for Ertz to pull off a good enough season for my liking.
Tyler Conklin/C.J. Uzomah, New York Jets
The Jets probably had the best offseason in real life and the worst offseason in the fantasy realm. New York added the best receiver of the class in Garrett Wilson while already boasting three talented receivers in Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Braxton Berrios. There is a chance all of them get some middling 55-to-65 targets, murdering each other's upside. Then, there is the tight end conundrum with these two involved at the position... and a rookie getting drafted by the Jets on top of everything.
Breece Hall (the first running back off the 2022 draft board) is probably not going to get a ton of targets off pass-catchers, but at the same time is another threat for all other skill-position players doing it for the Jets in 2022. And hey, have I mentioned the mediocre quarterback manning the Jets' pocket? Shout out to Zach Wilson! It's not that either Uzomah or Conklin gathered a lot of targets last year, sure, but there is no freaking way they improve their numbers on that front with very which probabilities of both of them actually getting lower marks in New York.
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