RADIO
Defense is often overlooked but has the ability to win you your weekly matchups. Last year, the top unit was the Rams, and they scored 9.9 points per game (according to ESPN standard scoring), which is equivalent to Giovani Bernard in PPR formats, who finished as the 34th-ranked running back. Any time we can get close to double-digit points (or more if we pick the right matchup), it's not something we should take for granted.
However, even though getting 10 points per game from your defense is certainly beneficial, we still don't want to reach and draft a DST early in our fantasy drafts. While some defenses like the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears have proven to be season-long holds in years past, you're far more likely to stream defenses each week. With that in mind, I'm going to focus on my DSTs by targeting according to their talent (duh!) but also their early-season schedule.
I will use one other factor in determining who I target. As you'll see more regularly from me during my weekly DST streamer column, I've created a DST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play. You can see the whole leaderboard based on last year's numbers here (I'm still working on a name for it).
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The "Obvious" Picks
Of course, we're not simply going to use last year's leaderboard to determine which DST you should target since personnel has changed in some cases and the schedules are totally different. However, we will use it as a resource to determine the ability of a defensive unit (if similar in personnel and scheme) to produce strong numbers. Yet, as I mentioned above, the early-season schedule is super important when choosing the right defense.
Since I'm usually never going to be the first person drafting a DST in my leagues (there is almost always somebody who starts a mini-run three or four rounds before the end of the draft), I'm not likely to wind up with one of the top units. However, I do love the following defenses this year and would be targeting them if they were somehow available in the final round or two when I'm finishing off my draft:
- Rams Defense
- Steelers Defense
- Buccaneers Defense
- Washington Football Team defense
New Orleans Saints Defense
The Saints always seem to find themselves near the top of the defensive rankings but almost never get any love. Maybe it has to do with their offensive firepower and the fact that their games can sometimes turn into shootouts; however, this has always been a well-coached unit under Sean Payton and one that has a tremendous amount of talent. They finished as the sixth-ranked unit last season using my formula, primarily because they were eighth in drives that ended in a turnover, eighth in sacks, and sixth in pressure rate. This is a consistently opportunistic defense that puts pressure on the opposing offense throughout an entire game, which often leads to mistakes and fantasy points.
Marshon Lattimore and Malcolm Jenkins remain to anchor the secondary, and the Saints made some low-cost veteran signings around them to add depth, but the real strength of this unit is in the presence of Cameron Jordan and a linebacking corps led by Demario Davis and Kwon Alexander. Losing Trey Hendrickson to free agency is a blow, but remember that he was simply a rotational lineman for the team before his breakout in 2020, so the Saints could fill his void by having another young rotational lineman emerge, like Marcus Davenport, Carl Granderson, or first-round pick Payton Turner. At this point, I'll bet on the coaching and the system. The Packers game in week one is a tough challenge, but I love the four games after that.
EARLY SCHEDULE: vs Packers, @ Panthers, @ Patriots, vs Giants, @ Washington
Buffalo Bills Defense
You might call me a homer, but I'm still going to stick with this pick. The Bills finished as the 14th-ranked defense by my formula last year and a big factor in that was them being 15th in sacks and 23rd in pressure rate. As we saw against the Chiefs in the postseason, they simply couldn't get after the quarterback consistently enough. However, the Bills also understood that and spent their first two draft picks on defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham to give them depth on the edges. With Jerry Hughes coming back and last year's top pick A.J. Epenesa reportedly taking clear steps forward in training camp, I think we'll see a massive improvement from the Bills' defensive line this year.
That should also hold true in the running game where the Bills will still have Vernon Butler and Ed Oliver but will also welcome back space-eater Star Lotulelei, who sat out all of 2020. With Lotulelei occupying multiple blockers, Oliver should face one-on-one blocks on most snaps, which is a recipe for success for the athletic third-year player. The added security and depth upfront will allow the Bills to do what they do best: create turnovers. They finished second in the NFL in drives that ended in an offensive turnover and figure to be equally as adept this year considering they were able to bring back their entire starting defense from 2020. They have another tough first matchup, but I love the three games after that.
EARLY SCHEDULE: vs Steelers, @ Dolphins, vs Washington, vs Texans
Denver Broncos Defense
You're going to start seeing a trend with these final three defenses: injuries. The Broncos have always been a formidable unit, but they struggled a little bit towards the end of last year, which is understandable when you get zero games from Von Miller, seven games from A.J. Bouye, six games from Mike Purcell, and three games from Jurrell Casey. Obviously, the biggest difference-maker there is Miller, who is one of the premier defenders in the NFL and should be fully healthy entering the 2021 season. That alone is a massive upgrade for a defense that still finished ninth in sacks with 42 on the season.
The Broncos will no longer have Bouye, but they brought in Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby to a secondary that includes Kareem Jackson and ball-hawk Justin Simmons. That should make the secondary slightly above average at worst, which is more than enough when you are pairing Von Miller with Bradley Chubb and Dre'Mont Jones and also blocking up the interior with Mike Purcell.
Our defense just got even scarier. ? pic.twitter.com/XakiSL168C
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) March 21, 2021
If the Broncos can finish just outside the top-10 last year while missing the level of talent that they were, I fully expect them to return to being an impact defense week in and week out if they remain fully healthy in 2021. Plus, look at those first three weeks. Woo boy.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @ Giants, @ Jaguars, vs Jets, vs Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers Defense
My interest in the Chargers stems primarily from them being overlooked pretty much everywhere, thanks to their poor season last year. However, there are a few major differences to the 2020 team that has me back in on the Chargers. For one, they hired Brandon Staley as their head coach right after Staley coordinated the Rams' dominant defense. He will surely have a hand in shaping the Chargers' defensive vision and scheme, so I'm confident he can take a defense anchored by Joey Bosa, Linval Joseph, Derwin James, and Chris Harris Jr. and make it a talented unit.
Another reason I'm in on the Chargers is because of one of the names I mentioned above: Derwin James. The talented 24-year-old missed all of 2020 with a torn meniscus and having him back drastically re-shapes the Chargers' defense. Add to that the fact that Joey Bosa was only able to make 10 starts last year and Chris Harris Jr. was only able to make nine and you realize that the Chargers were without all three of their best defenders for over a third of the season last year. With those three back, plus the emergence of Kenneth Murray and the arrival of second-round pick Asante Samuel Jr., I'm buying a return to form for the formerly feisty Chargers defense.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @Washington, vs Cowboys, @Chiefs, vs Raiders
San Francisco 49ers Defense
We can go from one injured Bosa to another to wrap up this article. Last season, the 49ers had Nick Bosa for all of two games and Dee Ford for only one. The loss of those two dynamic pass-rushers drastically re-shapes the ability of a defense considering Bosa had nine sacks in a Pro Bowl rookie season in 2019 while Ford had 13 sacks in his last full season, back in 2018 with the Chiefs. Having these two guys consistently pressuring the quarterback will drastically improve a pass rush that finished 22nd with only 30 sacks last year.
The increased pressure will also be a boon for a secondary that didn't create a lot of turnovers last year but has clear talent. The 49ers were able to bring back Jason Verrett and Jaquiski Tartt to a defense that includes stud linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, which means this team has skilled defenders at every level. That's good news for most defenses but especially a team that uses the defensive line to attack and set a tone as much as the 49ers have in the past. New defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, who was the linebackers coach, has said he intends to keep that philosophy and that the scheme won't be drastically different, which means we shouldn't have to endure that much of a learning curve in the early season with two-plus matchups.
EARLY SCHEDULE: @Lions, @Eagles, vs Packers, vs Seahawks (first two weeks could be top-five finishes)
Bonus Option
I likely won't be drafting the Browns' defense because their first game is on the road against the Chiefs and they face offenses like the Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals early in the year. However, I will definitely be keeping tabs on them on my waiver wires because I believe they'll finish as a top-10 unit this season.
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