RADIO
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! This year more than usual, it is very important we take a minute to recognize what we are thankful for and hopefully spend time with our loved ones. Seriously, much like fantasy football, life can be unexpected - I urge you all to hug the ones you love and hold them close if you can. I hope my fantasy advice reaches you in good health, and all of your weekends are filled with copious amounts of turkey, family time, and of course, football.
That’s right, it wouldn’t be Thanksgiving without some football. The feast begins early on Thursday as we begin with the Texans (3-7) traveling to Ford Field to take on the Lions (4-6). To follow this up we have the classic thanksgiving matchup in Dallas with two veteran quarterbacks going head to head. Alex Smith will be facing Andy Dalton for the first time since week four of the 2016 season, where the Bengals beat the Chiefs in a 36-21 point shoot-out. Finally, we end the night with one of the grittiest rivalries in the game, as the 10-0 Steelers take on the 6-4 Ravens.
This week I have my work cut out for me as I am bringing you analysis for all three Thursday games. You bet your boots I am very thankful for football and am honored to have you all start your Thanksgiving weekends with my analysis. So without further ado, I bring to you, RotoBaller’s Thursday Football analysis.
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Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions, 12:30 PM ET
Notable Injuries:
- Kenny Golladay (WR, DET) - Hip - Out
- Jeff Okudah (CB, DET) - Shoulder - Questionable
- Danny Amendola (WR, DET) - Hip - Out
- Marvin Hall (WR, DET) - Toe - Expected
- T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET) - Shoulder - Expected
- Mathew Stafford (QB, DET) - Thumb - Expected
- D'Andre Swift (RB, DET) - Concussion - Out
- Randall Cobb (WR, HOU) - Toe - Out
- Bryan Anger (P, HOU) - Quadricep - Questionable
- Kenny Stills (WR, HOU) - Quadricep - Out
Must Starts
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU): Since week five, Watson is the QB-four in fantasy points per game. The electric quarterback has been somewhat forgotten about in many fantasy leagues this year, however, since the firing of Bill O’Brian we have watched Watson ball-out. Watson has the seventh-most rushing yards at the position as well as the fifth most passing yards. He has been getting it done both on the ground and in the air. He is one of the most sure-fire quarterbacks in fantasy who will be taking on the team that is allowing the 5th most yards per game. The matchup alone locks Watson into a top 10 option this week and gives him QB-1 upside.
Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU): When two of the NFL’s best speed receivers are paired with the QB that is fifth in passing yards, you get fantasy production. Both of these receivers have made Houston into one of the most exciting passing teams in the league. Will Fuller has been getting it done all season and is currently the WR-14 in Half PPR. He is clearly the number one option for Watson and more importantly, has managed to stay healthy this season *vigorously knocks on wood*. Cooks, on the other hand, started slow but has become a consistent WR-two play each week. With eight or more targets in five of his last six games, the volume has been there to take advantage of good matchups. Thankfully, he has one of those good matchups this Thursday. Each of these WR’s possess the ability to explode, I would be starting Fuller as a low-end WR-one option and Cooks as a low-end two this week. Also, after Fuller’s six-game touchdown streak came to an end in a rainy game in Cleveland, I expect him to reopen the Pie Shop* this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET): In what has been a missing season for the fourth-year receiver, he’ll look to retake the field in week 12. Despite having only played four full games this year, Golladay has displayed his ability to be a high-end WR-one option in fantasy by putting up a hundred yards or a touchdown in each of these four games. Houston is allowing the second-most yards per game to their opponents which should pave the way for a great comeback game for Golladay. Mathew Stafford will be delighted to have his top option back. It will be important to monitor Golladay’s injury situation throughout the week, but if he is healthy, he is another WR-one who will open the Pie Shop* on Thursday.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
UPDATE: Kenny Golladay has officially been ruled out.
D'Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson (RB, DET): I do not expect Swift to play after suffering a concussion during practice in week 11. However, if he does he should be started everywhere. Houston is allowing THE MOST rushing yards per game to opponents. Plus, in a game where Detroit could easily be down on the scoreboard, Swift’s passing work should create a fantastic fantasy floor. If Swift is out, Peterson is a lot more exciting. He is only in this section as a result of the matchup and the injury to Swift, however, he should not be looked at as more than a flex player for week 12.
UPDATE: D'Andre Swift has officially been ruled out.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET): Considering the tight-end landscape, Hockenson is a great play this week. He has had six or more targets in four of his last five games and sits as the TE-five on the year. Although I expect these targets to dip if Golladay is healthy, you don’t bench the TE-5. Start him with confidence and hope he finds pay dirt in this matchup.
Solid Options
Mathew Stafford (QB, DET): It has been a disappointing fantasy season for the gun-slinging QB. After lighting up last season with a 5,000-yard pace, Stafford has crashed back to earth. You could attribute some of his struggles to missing his top wideout due to injury and dealing with health issues of his own. However, his fantasy production has been underwhelming far before his recent thumb injury. Sitting as the QB-18 on the season, Stafford goes against the team that averages over 22 points scored and allows the tenth most passing yards per game. Stafford should be able to find production at home against this defense, and will be a solid QB-two option for Week 12.
Duke Johnson Jr. (RB, HOU): For anyone who thinks that David Johnson is “washed”, you need to watch what Duke Johnson Jr. has been able to do in his place. Johnson Jr. has not looked half as good as the older back, and his fantasy production has displayed this. Last week, Duke Johnson Jr. managed a whopping 1.5 yards per carry on ten carries with three receptions for 20 yards. While he has not been great, he makes this list as running backs with this workload are hard to come by. Plus, Detroit is allowing the third most rushing yards per game. I expect a bounce-back performance for the receiving specialist. He should creep into low-end RB-two territory this week.
Consider Sitting
Marvin Jones and Marvin Hall (WR, DET): Although Jones has been a very functional flex player the last few weeks, if Golladay is back I will look to avoid playing him. Even without Golladay, Jones only managed to crack 55 yards once in the last four games. Thankfully, he has managed to find the endzone, scoring four times in his last four games. As for Hall he has become a viable deep threat but has yet to demonstrate any consistency. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the Marvin's can find a long touchdown, however, it could be either and I don’t like playing that risk on Thursday.
Jordan Akins and Darren Fells (TE, HOU): These tight ends are the definition of boom-bust. Watson is always a threat to pass for multiple touchdowns and has shown efficacy with Fells in the red-zone. However, he has not scored a touchdown since week six. Akins is coming off of a very nice game where he caught five of six targets for 83 yards. Before that, he only had more than three receptions once. If I had to choose between the two I would choose Akins, but neither of these players receives the volume I look for when I stream the position. Therefore, I would try to look elsewhere this week.
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET
Notable Injuries
- Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS) - Ankle - Expected
- Dustin Hopkins (K, WAS) - Groin - Questionable
- Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) - Ankle - Expected
- Dontrelle Inman (WR, WAS) - Hamstring - Expected
- Greg Zuerlein (K, DAL) - Back - Expected
- Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL) - Hamstring - Expected
- Joe Thomas (T, DAL) - Wrist - Expected
- Brandon Knight (T, DAL) - Knee - Expected
Must Starts
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS): Somehow with a combination of Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith, Scary Terry has managed to be the WR-11 this season. Given his situation, production and consistency are down-right incredible. McLaurin has one game below 60 yards on the whole season, which was week five against the Rams. If there is ever a matchup to excuse “poor” performance, that would be it - Kyle Allen throwing the ball in the direction of the league's best corner (Jalen Ramsey) isn’t a recipe for success. This Thursday, he goes against the team giving up the eighth-most yards per game with Alex Smith under center. We have already seen Smith throw for two 300+ yard games since his return, so the volume will be there for McLaurin to continue his excellent season. Start him as a low-end WR-one this week.
Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL): I never thought I would be excited to see Andy Dalton back under center, but he breathes life into this depleted Dallas team. In Andy Dalton’s two games, he has shown his “go-to” targets are both Cooper and Lamb where each receiver has 17 targets and a touchdown. Of the two, Cooper has been the better receiver, posting 160 yards compared to 98 for Lamb. Washington is allowing the least passing yards per game, capping both of their ceilings, however, both have the talent to outperform any matchup. I am not expecting a massive game from either receiver, but they should both be fringe WR-two’s this week.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS): One of the industry's most polarizing rookies heading into the year has proved to be a very electric player. Many people focused on his lack of carries in college, proclaiming he does not have the experience to transfer to the NFL. I was one of them. However, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong as Gibson has been very productive on a very mediocre team. Since week 7, Gibson is averaging the sixth-most fantasy points per game at the position (Half PPR), largely on the back of 5 touchdowns in his last four games. However, Dallas is allowing the second-most rushing yards against and Gibson is in-line for another great fantasy performance this Thursday.
J.D. McKissic (RB/WR, WAS): Although he may have let you down with his performance last week, he still makes this section. In a game where Washington was ahead and in control, McKissic only managed 7.4 fantasy points. The good news is that this was the worst possible game script for the passing back and he still managed a nice fantasy floor. Thankfully, Vegas oddsmakers have Washington as the underdog, meaning Dallas should lead this Thursday and McKissic will bounce back. With Alex Smith Under center, he is averaging 11 targets per game and that usage alone makes him a “Must Start” in any PPR format this week.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL): It wouldn’t be right having both Washington backs in this segment without mentioning Zeke. There is the reason for optimism with Dalton under center, not only because the offense as a whole is better, but because Dalton gets Zeke involved in the passing game. In Dalton’s first start he gave Zeke 10 targets, and last week he found Zeke for a passing touchdown. While he has been very underwhelming for fantasy this season, he is still getting a full workload. Washington is a tough matchup for running backs but Zeke is getting the usage to have another successful fantasy day. Although he isn’t the top three option he was earlier this year, he is a very solid RB-two this Thanksgiving.
Solid Options
Alex Smith (QB, WAS): What a great story this is. From potential leg amputation to starting NFL QB, Smith has earned the respect of the entire league. Unfortunately, he still hasn’t been great for fantasy purposes. However, in this matchup I think he will be a very solid QB-two. In a game where Dallas should be able to put up points, Smith will be looking to exploit Dallas’ weak secondary. Since coming back, Smith has two 300+ yard games but only has two passing touchdowns in three games. If he manages to combine this yardage with a touchdown or two, he will be a top-16 QB this week.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS): Thomas has been one of the most steady, mediocre tight ends this season. The Washington TE makes this section because he has yet to have a game below 4 targets and he is tied for 10th at the position in total targets. This involvement is hard to find at the TE position and Dallas has given up a touchdown to the position in three of their last six games. Although it may not be exciting, you could do worse than Thomas this week. To add to your confidence, I’m calling for him to open the Pie Shop* for the fourth time this year.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL): To round out the greasy tight ends in this matchup, Schultz sneaks into the “Solid Option” section for this week. Over his last three games he has managed 6 or more targets and has had at least 48 yards or a score over that span. Much like Thomas, this is not an exciting play, but you could do worse. If you are desperate you can take the shot on Schultz, however, between the two I prefer Thomas as I think Smith will have a more productive day under center.
Consider Sitting
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL): Two of Dalton’s three starts have been functional for fantasy as he cracked double-digit fantasy points. The third? Well, that was the last time he played Washington where he put up 1.6 fantasy points before getting hurt late in the game. As a Bengals fan, I’ve witnessed how Dalton performs against elite pass rushers, and let me just say it isn’t pretty. Washington is currently second in sack percentage and has the fifth-most sacks in the league. Mix this with the fact that Dallas is allowing the eighth-most sacks per game, and I see a long day for Andy Dalton. I would look to avoid him in all formats.
Micheal Gallup (WR, DAL): Once Dallas selected Ceedee Lamb with their first pick, we all knew one receiver would take the production hit. Unfortunately, that receiver has been Gallup. Gallup has been very underwhelming for fantasy this year - having only cracked double-digit fantasy points once. He is not getting the usage he needs to succeed and it has been clear he is the third (if not fourth) option on the team. Even if I was desperate, I would look for a higher upside play on the wire this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Tuesday 12/1 @ 8 PM ET
UPDATE: This game was originally scheduled for Thanksgiving evening, then moved to Sunday afternoon due to COVID-19 concerns, but has now been rescheduled for Tuesday night.
Notable Injuries
- Calais Campbell (DE, BAL) - Calf - Doubtful
- Jimmy Smith (CB, BAL) - Questionable
- Mark Ingram (RB, BAL) - COVID - Out
- J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL) - COVID - Out
- Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) - Thigh - Questionable
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT) - Foot - Expected
- Jaylen Samuels (RB, PIT) - Quadricep - Doubtful
- Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) - COVID - Out
- James Conner (RB, PIT) - COVID - Out
- Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) - COVID - Out
Must Starts
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT): Johnson has been on fire this season, especially lately. Over the last two weeks, he has more yards than any other receiver. If it weren’t for injuries, Johnson would be a top ten WR in fantasy football. Through seven full games played he is averaging 18 fantasy points per game. The best part is that Ben Roethlisberger has locked in on him as his favourite target. Through these seven games, he is averaging 11.1 targets per game which would be only behind Davante Adams. Unfortunately, the only full game he played without at least six receptions or ten targets was the last time these teams met. The matchup may limit some of his production but if he continues to receive double-digit targets, he will have a fine fantasy day. Play him as a locked-in WR-two this week.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT): It’s not often that I get to talk about a fellow Canadian in this segment. The Abbotsford, British Columbia native has taken the league by storm this season. In a year loaded with phenomenal rookies, Claypool has definitely made his case to be atop that list. As the only rookie in history to have 10 touchdowns in 10 games, Claypool has turned his breakout into a fantasy feast. Claypool is currently sitting as the WR-12 on the season and has one game in his last seven below double-digit fantasy points. Over the last four games he is averaging 10 targets per game, which shouldn’t change this week. Continue to start him with confidence as he is another locked in WR-two with massive touchdown upside. I think Mike Tomlin will find a way to get him in the endzone again in this match as well, reopening the Pie Shop* for the young stud.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL): In this “down” year for Jackson he has managed to be the QB-10 on the season. Although Lamar Jackson hasn’t been lighting up the league like he did last year, he has been very steady. His passing numbers have been heavily criticized this season, however, in his last five games, he is averaging 12.4 rushing attempts per game and 67.4 rushing yards per game. To put this in perspective, there are only eleven running backs averaging more rushing yards per game. It is this rushing floor that places him in this section despite going against the team allowing the fifth least yards against per game. This week, the team is missing its top two running backs, which should result in even more rushing attempts for the young quarterback. Continue playing Jackson as he will look to change his negative primetime narrative this Thursday.
UPDATE: Lamar Jackson (COVID-19) has officially been ruled out for this week.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL): This season Andrews has seemed more like a “solid option” than a “must start”. Even though it seems this way, Andrews has managed to be the TE-three on the season (only 9 points behind Darren Waller). After going on a three-game streak failing to break four fantasy points, Andrews has managed to get 60+ yards in each of his last two games. As Jackson’s favourite target, he has averaged 8 targets over the last two weeks and is always a threat to find the endzone. I think he has a good chance to score again this week and is one of the few “must start” tight ends in the league.
UPDATE: Mark Andrews (COVID-19) has officially been ruled out for this week.
Solid Options
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT): Many people don’t realize it, but Big Ben Roethlisberger has been the QB-11 this season. He has quietly been very relevant this season and should be a starting QB in most leagues. Over his last five games, he is the QB-eight and has at least two passing touchdowns in each game. This weekend his ceiling is capped by the matchup against a Baltimore team averaging the seventh-fewest passing yards per game. Despite the tough opponent, the abundance of elite weapons around him makes him a solid option this week. His fantasy floor makes him a great second QB in any two QB league.
Eric Ebron (TE, PIT): The red zone specialist has begun to find his groove with Ben Roethlisberger under center. Scoring three times in his last four games and having four or more targets in every game since week one, Ebron is doing what it takes to be a fantasy starter at the position. Although he is only the TE-14 on the season, not many tight ends get this kind of target-share. Ebron is a great streamer this week for any TE-needy fantasy team.
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL): With both Mark Ingram and J.K Dobbins out due to the COVID protocol, Edwards should be fed this game. We have yet to see Edwards as the featured back this year, however, he has looked to be the best between the tackles runner of the three. Although he did have a 31-yard reception against New England two weeks ago, Edwards, unfortunately, does not have the receiving chops to make him more valuable in PPR formats. It is also important to consider that since starting the year holding Saquon Barkley to 0.4 yards per carry, the Steelers Defense has been slightly more susceptible to the run. Over the last three weeks, they are allowing the 11th least rushing yards per game (118.7). If Edwards gets 20+ attempts this game he should be a fine flex play, and gets a bump in standard-scoring leagues.
James Conner (RB, PIT): It has been a rollercoaster of emotion over the last few weeks for James Conner managers. After being the RB-11 through the first eight weeks of the season, despite playing Dallas and Cincinnati he was the RB-55 and RB-34 in weeks nine and ten respectively. Ouch. Last week he was able to rebound with a RB-18 performance and a 6.8 yards per carry. This week he goes against a Baltimore team that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game over their last three games. Conner should be in line for a good game this week, however, both Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland have been siphoning some touches. Conner is clearly the lead back and should put up a top 24 play this week, especially because I am projecting the Pie Shop to be open for him.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
UPDATE: James Conner (COVID-19) has officially been ruled out for this week.
Consider Sitting
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT): JSS makes this section to give fantasy owners confidence to finally bench the big named WR. On a points per game basis he is the WR-30 and has flat-out disappeared in some matchups. Obviously, WR-30 is still very startable, however, I wanted to give managers reassurance to play lesser names over the fourth-year WR. For example, I would play both Allen Lazard (@ CHI) or Corey Davis (@ IND) over Smith-Schuster this week. It is important to recognize that he has 65 or more yards in four of his last five games, so he should be a safe volume player and can very well be started if you lack another option.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL): Please, bench Hollywood. Unlike Juju Smith-Schuster where he can be started, if needed, Brown should not be. Hollywood hasn’t cracked 10 fantasy points since week five this season. Plus, Lamar Jackson has not looked to be an accurate deep-ball passer this year. Although his speed could win you a week, this is exactly the thought process that has lost most Hollywood owners the last 6 weeks. Baltimore currently has the 7th least 25+ yard passing plays in the league, and I would not bet on Hollywood changing that against the team allowing the third least passing yards per game. Remember, you can’t win your week on Thursday, however, you can definitely lose it. It’s time to move on from the second year WR.
Ellis’ 2020 Picks
Spread (4-7), Over/Under (4-7)
Houston @ Detroit:
I love this matchup to start week 12. We saw a very depleted Lions team last week that was shut out by a very mediocre Carolina defense. I think they get some of their weapons back and take advantage of a weak Houston defense. However, Watson has been on fire lately and I think he can carry that team to a victory.
- My picks are: HOU -3, Over 51.5
Washington @ Dallas:
Coming off a big road win last week against the Vikings and getting their “starting” quarterback back, the Cowboys should have lots of momentum going into Thursday. However, Washington has an elite pass rush and I don’t trust the Red Rifle to weather the storm. With huge implications in this divisional matchup I think both defenses show up and we get a tight mid-day game.
- My Picks are: WAS +3, Under 46
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh:
This is the last “scary” matchup on the Steelers schedule. I am sure the Ravens would love to be the ones to ruin the undefeated streak of their division rivals. Having said that, I don’t see a reason why they should win but a 5.5 point spread is juicy. This should be a tight game and I think Baltimore might be in for another heartbreaking loss again this week.
- My picks are: BAL +5.5, Over 44.5
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