Over the first eight weeks of the 2017 season, 14 teams underwent a change in the closer’s role, whether as a result of injury or ineffectiveness. Two of those teams, the Nationals and the Phillies, are on their third arm. Some of these clubs have since turned back to their original ninth-inning man, but the point remains that closer is arguably the most volatile position in sports— certainly in baseball.
There is a case to be made for punting saves from the beginning, but it may even be a better strategy midseason. Drafting Craig Kimbrel, who compiled a league-high eight saves in April, and then flipping him for a major offensive or starting pitching upgrade could pay big dividends.
Let's examine the case for shifting gears mid-season and punting the most unpredictable category of all, saves, in order to gain an advantage for your fantasy baseball team.
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Flipping Closers for Profit
This strategy, which is best suited for Roto leagues — can be utilized in one of two ways. Adding newly-established closers and then continuing to flip them for profit, or holding onto these players to replace the arms previously dealt away.
Fantasy owners who have lost Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman or Jeurys Familia could still be looking to acquire a closer in a trade. There are certainly more injuries to come over the next two or three months, so it’s important to jump on an opportunity when an owner is feeling most vulnerable— especially if that owner is competitive in the saves category.
Five of the more reliable sources of saves down the stretch last season — Edwin Diaz, Kelvin Herrera, Ken Giles, Tyler Thornburg and Tony Watson — didn’t begin to consistently rack up saves until August. Neither Seung-Hwan Oh nor Jim Johnson held down the closer role until July; Brandon Kintzler not until June. There will continue to be plenty of opportunities to add a viable closer in the remaining months.
Fernando Rodney hasn’t given up a run since April, but still owns just a 6.10 ERA and is bound to implode at some point. Archie Bradley (1.46 ERA, 11.31 K/9, 20 percent owned) could be waiting in the wings. Watson has blown two consecutive save chances, and put up a measly 5.14 ERA in the month of May. The Pirates could eventually turn to Felipe Rivero (0.63 ERA, 9.57 K/9, 30 percent owned).
For those who are concerned about losing the dominant numbers that come along with most closers, there are always middle relievers to snag off the waiver wire. Tommy Kahnle, Carl Edwards, Jake McGee and Zach McAllister each possess an ERA below 2.50 with a K/9 over 12.00, and all four are owned in less than 15 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Owners who are competitive in saves would be smart to hold onto guys they add off the wire — guys like Koda Glover, Matt Bush, Justin Wilson — in order to hold onto those points, but if you’re already towards the bottom, it could be worth punting the category altogether, and building up the rest of your roster in the process.
Monitor the waiver wire for guys who could slide into a closer role, target the team with the most points to gain in the saves category, and load up on starting pitching and offense.