RADIO
The playoff stretch has officially started. Most leagues are now just four weeks out from the start of the fantasy playoffs and fantasy managers are getting down to the nitty-gritty. Tough decisions have to be made as injuries continue to pile up and unfortunately there are still four weeks of bye weeks fantasy managers need to work around.
This is also where fantasy managers need to change how they approach the waiver wire and who to drop. Fantasy managers should be prioritizing high-upside plays and handcuffs where available, especially of players on their own teams.
The flip side can also be true. Often times fantasy managers get so preoccupied with the playoffs that they forget they actually need to make the playoffs. That means if you're holding onto a lottery ticket that you don't trust but need a win – well, hard decisions may need to be made. That lottery ticket doesn't mean anything if you don't get into the playoffs. It's a game of strategy and probability, also a game of numbers and I wish you all the best of luck as we enter the stretch run! Let's get to it.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 11?
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
54.5% Rostership
Matt Ryan cannot be trusted. It's as simple as that. He's just as likely to cost you your fantasy matchup than help you win in. At this stage of his career and season, Ryan is nothing more than a decent streamer in the best of matchups, but a player who can be defined like that doesn't need to be on fantasy rosters. He's scored under 10 points in three matchups this season. He has had three games of 25 or more points, but it should be noted two of them came against bottom-five defenses. This comes back to Ryan being a decent streamer and nothing more.
To make matters worse, the offensive talent around Ryan keeps dropping off. First, he lost Calvin Ridley to mental health concerns. Now he's lost perhaps his best offensive weapon in Cordarrelle Patterson. Ryan is left having to make do with Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts, and Mike Davis among his top weapons. Hayden Hurst was also injured in last week's contest. His play has been all over the place and there's nothing here to give fantasy managers faith moving forward. He can be safely dropped and picked back up when the matchup is right.
Running Backs to Drop for Week 11?
Adrian Peterson, Tennessee Titans
58.9% Rostership
Adrian Peterson is not what he used to be. He's not even close to what he used to be. Fantasy managers shouldn't have expected it. There's no need to make excuses for his limited time with the offense. The problem is not his lack of knowledge around the playbook. The problem is the fact that he's 36 years old. There is no other position in the NFL that can be defined as a young man's game more than running back. It has one of the shortest shelf-lives in the league and there's a good reason why. Peterson has defied Father's Time for several years, but as the saying goes, "Father's Time is undefeated."
Last season, he was the RB37 with a 7.4 point-per-game average in half-PPR. His ranking in points per game would have been even lower than the RB37 he finished at overall. During that campaign, he finished with 3.9 yards per carry. The problem is the complete lack of upside. Adrian Peterson is looking at 8–14 carries per game at the most. Even with a 4.5 yard per carry average, that would equate to 6.3 points, which means that he absolutely needs to find the end zone to give fantasy managers a halfway decent showing. If fantasy managers are looking for a good game, they'll need two touchdowns.
It's clear Adrian Peterson is a shell of what he used to be. Occasional old school flashes, sure, but he's logged a miserable 2.11 YAC/att and forced one missed tackle on 18 rush attempts.
Expect D'Onte Foreman's role to grow. What better way then against former employer HOU.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) November 15, 2021
Peterson is not going to provide fantasy managers with any involvement in the passing game and making your living solely on rushing production is a hard way to make a living in fantasy football. There's no reason to hang onto 2018. It's over.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 11?
Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
82.0% Rostership
What a disappointing season for Julio. He's only played in six games all year and he's been in double-digits only one time, which was all the way back in Week Two against Seattle. With his current IR stint, he won't return until Week 14. With fantasy football playoffs likely starting around Week 15 or Week 16, that doesn't give fantasy managers any time to see what Julio's got in his return before having to put him into their starting lineups. At this point, with what we've seen and the circumstances moving forward, there's very little incentive to keep him on your roster.
If fantasy managers haven't been able to trust Julio all season, I'm not sure how anyone could trust him coming off a three-week IR stint.
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
49.3% Rostership
This was supposed to be his breakout sophomore campaign – especially with the draft selection of Trevor Lawrence – but Shenault has disappointed in spectacular fashion. He's been in double-digits just one time this season, which was way back in Week 4. The past several weeks he's been outdone by tight end Dan Arnold and slot receiver Jamal Agnew. Over the last five weeks, he's averaged 5.08 points in half-PPR scoring.
Laviska Shenault Jr. continues to struggle playing outside receiver.
He got open 3 out of 16 opportunities (19%) yesterday versus single-man coverage and defeated press-single-man 0 out of 6 times.
He is now 5 for 26 vs. press-man on the season (19%).
— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) November 15, 2021
There are only two Jaguars fantasy managers should be trusting right now and that's James Robinson and Dan Arnold. The Jaguars have been one of the worst offenses in the league, and with the limited number of scoring opportunities, Shenault needs consistent volume to overcome those concerns. That is not happening on a weekly basis. Fantasy managers can safely move on.
On the Hot Seat
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
72.7% Rostership
Davis hasn't been as bad as fantasy football Twitter would lead you to believe. While he certainly hasn't lived up to his RB2 billing this summer, that doesn't mean he becomes an unusable fantasy asset. To start off the season he had five straight games of 8.5 points or more. There's no reason to try to make it sound like that's an amazing fantasy player –it's not – but it is useful. The past four weeks have been something else entirely. He's scored just 14.2 points over the last four weeks and if you're in a roster crunch, fantasy managers shouldn't hesitate to drop Davis if push comes to shove. He's played his way into this spot. The only reason he finds himself on the hot seat as opposed to outright drop is because of Cordarrelle Patterson's injury. Patterson is said to have a high ankle sprain and could miss the next several weeks.
Davis hasn't shown much in recent weeks and when Patterson went down, Wayne Gallman played a lot more snaps than he's seen all season. While fantasy managers will look at the box score and see Gallman's 15 carries, nine of them were in garbage time after Matt Ryan was benched. Fantasy managers should be expecting Gallman to get a shot and more touches than he has all season with Patterson's injury, but with the injury, the door has opened for Davis to get more involved too. Will it happen? That's the biggest question. If I have the luxury to hold Davis for one week to see how the backfield breaks between Gallman and Davis, that would be ideal.
Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
77.4% Rostership
The Jaguars' passing game is not one fantasy managers should want to be investing in right now. When D.J. Chark fractured his ankle, the pathway seemed to part for Jones to become the No. 1 receiver in the Jacksonville offense. That has not happened. He's been in double digits just one time in the last seven weeks. There are another four games with under five points in half-PPR scoring. That's not a guy fantasy managers need to hang onto, so why is he held?
He's averaging 87 air yards per game, which is 27th among all receivers. His targets per game rank 34th at 7.3 targets per game. When looking at Jones' usage, fantasy managers should expect to have a WR3 on their hands. That hasn't been the case recently, but the utilization continues to be that of a roster-worthy fantasy player.
With matchups against the Falcons in Week 12 and then the Texans and Jets during the fantasy playoffs, Jones might yet find his way into some playoff lineups. Based on his usage, he is Lawrence's preferred No. 1 wide receiver. The production hasn't followed, but we shouldn't be chasing points, we should be chasing volume. Jones' volume isn't that of a top-24 receiver, but he can easily be a top-36 wide receiver and that's worthy of a roster spot.
Hold On
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
49.3% Rostership
Shepard has missed three games this season, which is honestly something fantasy managers should have been expecting. There's really no reason to be upset about it because it was baked into the draft-day price tag. He's been effective when he's been on the field though and fantasy managers shouldn't forget that. He has scored 12 or more points in three out of the five games he's been active and one of them he left early. That's always the risk with Shepard, but when he's healthy, he's a solid asset.
Top-10 players in receptions per game this season:
Cooper Kupp (8.2)
Tyreek Hill (7.6)
Davante Adams (7.3)
Keenan Allen (7.1)
Diontae Johnson (6.4)
Sterling Shepard (6.4)
Cole Beasley (6.4)
Brandin Cooks (6.3)
Chris Godwin (6.3)
Jaylen Waddle (6.2)Full PPR is a helluva drug
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 10, 2021
He's averaging 8.6 targets per game, which ranks 16th among all wide receivers. He ranks the same in receptions per game. Shepard is a very strong PPR asset. He has a solid schedule down the stretch with five good matchups. The injury woes are frustrating, but Shepard is worth the hold. Kadarius Toney largely disappointed when Shepard and Golladay were hurt. Once Shepard returns, he'll quickly assume the mantle of Daniel Jones' most targeted receiver.
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