The Cut List – Who to Drop for Week 12?

In most leagues, there are only four games left before the playoffs, so it's time fantasy managers start thinking about Weeks 15–17 if they have that luxury. This is about the time of the season where I want to start to look at playoff matchups on the waiver wire and aim big. This applies towards quarterbacks and tight ends (especially if I'm streaming), but most definitely for defenses. I'm looking to lock up my handcuffs if I'm able to, assuming my starter has a legit handcuff behind them.

If you're still looking to lock up a playoff spot, we're living week-to-week. The only week that matters is the one we're in. Each win counts and fantasy managers need to be playing these weeks as if they're win or go home contests because they very well could be. I'm also looking for upside. Fantasy players that give you 7–10 points in PPR leagues are a dime a dozen and not worth holding onto unless there's an upside for more. Most of the time, this kind of production can be replicated by any player on the waiver wire if you play the matchups correctly.

So scour the waiver wire for those league-winners and high upside plays. Look for backup running backs who have an avenue to a large touch total should the starter get hurt. Start paying attention to future matchups. Every advantage counts.

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Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 12?

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

70.4% Rostership

It's been a rough three weeks for Carr and the Raiders' offense, but the reality is the struggles go back even further. He started off the 2021 season on fire with back-to-back-t0-back games of 21 or more points. He averaged over 400 passing yards per game and had two touchdowns in all three contests. His season, however, has been the tale of two halves. Fantasy managers have those first three games and whatever it is we've been seeing since then. In those first three games, he averaged 23.14 points per game. In the next seven, he's averaged 14.2 points.

In the last seven contests, he has just two games with over 20 points and another two under 10. He's been held to under 15 on four separate occasions. During that stretch, he's had nine turnovers compared to the two he had in Weeks 1–3. He went from averaging 401 passing yards per contest to 262 and from two touchdowns to 1.4 touchdowns per game.

What's absolutely absurd to me is that on ESPN Derek Carr is actually more rostered than Kirk Cousins. Carr's play recently has not provided fantasy managers with the confidence to put him into their starting lineup. In fact, at this stage, Carr is nothing more than a streamer and those aren't the kinds of players you need to keep on your roster week-to-week. The Raiders are severely lacking playmakers that Carr can utilize and threaten a defense.

 

Running Backs to Drop for Week 12?

D'Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns

74.5% Rostership

I had Johnson in this article last week and then Nick Chubb ended up missing Week 10 due to Covid-19, so that clearly did not work out well. I'm putting him back onto the Cut List this week. Outside of Week 10 when he was the starter, Johnson has averaged just 24 scrimmage yards since he burst onto the scene in Week 7. He did manage to find the end zone in Week 8, but that's just covering up how ineffective he's been with Chubb in the lineup. I dislike the argument of "if we take this play away...", but if we take away his one touchdown in Week 8, Johnson has scored just 7.6 points in the last three contests he's played with Chubb active for an average of 2.5 points per game.

Browns Hopeful Kareem Hunt Will Play In Week 12 https://t.co/ms3YP7zekK

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) November 22, 2021

Part of the reason Johnson was on the Cut List last week was because Hunt was eligible to come off the IR list. That didn't happen, but it's expected to happen for Week 12, which will send Johnson back to more irrelevance than he's been in the last three games he's played with Chubb. Fantasy managers can safely move on.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

70.2% Rostership

I wanted to hang onto Davis after Cordarrelle Patterson suffered an ankle sprain in Week 11 to see if that would give him life. What Week 12 told us was that Davis is 100% cuttable. In the past few weeks the Falcons' coaching staff has continued to find other running backs to give more touches to than Davis. Last week it was Wayne Gallman. Although, to be fair the majority of Gallman's touches came after the starters exited in the blowout loss to Dallas, which is part of the reason I wanted to give Davis one more week. Then this happened...

Last night, Mike Davis got out-touched by Quadree Ollison 11-6 and they each had 26 snaps.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 19, 2021

This really says it all and it's all fantasy managers need to know. Fantasy managers can safely move on from Mike Davis.

All Tennessee Titans Running Backs

Adrian Peterson made the Cut List last week and with good reason, but this week, we're just going to add every single Titans' running back. Don't bother wasting your time. This is a full-fledged committee and it's one fantasy managers should want nothing to do with. In Week 11, D'Onta Foreman led the backfield in snaps and touches, so naturally, fantasy football Twitter got all excited with his prospects of getting a game against the Houston Texans. And of course, the revenge narrative came because Foreman played for the Texans way back in 2014. Full disclosure, I have no idea when Foreman actually last played for the Texans, but it was a while ago and we really ought to put a time limit on what constitutes a revenge game. In any case, with all the excitement about Foreman entering Week 12, here's what actually happened...

#Titans 1st Half RB Usage

- Dontrell Hilliard: 46% snaps, 2 carries, 4 targets (44 yds)
- D’Onta Foreman: 27% snaps, 6 carries, 1 target (43 yds)
- Adrian Peterson: 27% snaps, 7 carries, 0 targets (37 yds) pic.twitter.com/cXus1Yztoi

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 21, 2021

To be fair, that was just the first half, but it didn't get any better. Dontrell Hilliard ended up with a halfway decent game in PPR scoring, but that's also the point. Who is Hilliard? The fact that fantasy managers don't know who to start or depend on from week to week is part of the problem. There are just too many unknowns for all the players and there's a complete lack of upside.

All Buffalo Bills Running Backs

Fantasy managers can safely drop Matt Breida, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Yes, all of them. There is an absolutely disgusting three-way committee in Buffalo and it is one all fantasy managers should be running for the hills from.

#Bills Week 11 RB usage ...

Snaps:
Devin Singletary - 38%
Matt Breida - 32%
Zack Moss - 29%

Routes:
Singletary - 36%
Breida - 25%
Moss - 25%

Carries:
Breida - 5
Singletary - 3
Moss - 3

Targets:
Singletary - 4
Breida - 2
Moss - 1

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 22, 2021

Look at that distribution between these three players. Fantasy managers are seeing a split in all facets of the game and it's rendering all players irrelevant. The Bills are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL and have a very limited number of touches available to their running backs, especially with Josh Allen commanding a share of the run game too. Fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting the offensive philosophy in Buffalo to change anytime soon, which means these three running backs will continue to be fairly useless in terms of fantasy value.

 

Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 12?

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots

67.6% Rostership

This one might catch some people by surprise, but Meyers is just a terribly boring player. He doesn't have a single game of 14 or more points in half-PPR scoring. He has seven games with less than eight points. Mac Jones has had a terrific rookie season, but the passing game has still been fairly limited. The Patriots' passing game is only attempting 32 passes per game and averaging just 1.4 touchdowns per game. Early in the season, Meyers was Jones' undisputed favorite target, but that is shifting and it's been drastically affecting his fantasy value.

Jakobi Meyers Weeks 1-4
PPG WR33
10.3 targets/GP
26% target share

Jakobi Meyers Weeks 5-11
PPG WR54
5.9 targets/GP
22% target share

— Dave Wright (@ff_spaceman) November 19, 2021

In the last three games, his target share has dropped even further. From Weeks 9–11, his target share has dropped to just 18.6%, which is tied with Kendrick Bourne and just 2.3% points ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry. With the limited passing volume and a lack of scoring opportunities, that decreased target share is minimizing his fantasy value. Right now, Meyers isn't producing any more different than a waiver wire wide receiver and fantasy managers shouldn't feel compelled to keep such a player on their roster.

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs

36.5% Rostership

Fantasy managers have hung onto this belief that Hardman will become a fantasy asset because he's on the Chiefs' offense and he's catching passes from Patrick Mahomes and because of his second-round draft capital. In principle, all of those reasons were good enough to believe in his potential. Unfortunately, that potential becomes a tough sell and production needs to follow. That's never happened for Hardman, and right now his decrease in playing time and routes run signals fantasy managers should not be expecting it to happen anytime soon or ever.

Mecole Hardman demotion was indeed sticky. Chiefs WR routes run yesterday on 45 Mahomes dropbacks:

Tyreek Hill 41
Byron Pringle 30
Demarcus Robinson 23
Josh Gordon 17
Mecole Hardman 8

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 22, 2021

It's fine to find value in a player because of their situation, but if the only thing you like about a player is their situation, they're likely going to disappoint. Eventually, they need to take advantage of their situation. Hardman hasn't and fantasy managers need to give up the dream.

 

Tight Ends to Drop for Week 12?

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers

54.3% Rostership

There's no need to be rostering Cook on a weekly basis. He's nothing more than a streamer and his rostership should reflect that. The main reason Cook finds himself on the Cut List is because his target share and role seem to be declining, ever so slightly.

In the 2021 season, he is sitting on a 13.4% target share, which is a small number to start with. He's been so clearly the fourth option in the passing game behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. If we look at Weeks 5–11, that number drops to 12.0%. In Weeks 7–11, it's down to 11.5%. In Weeks 9–11, it's down to 10.0%.

Week 4 has been the only week where fantasy managers can say Cook has provided them with a performance that gave them an advantage over their competition; he scored 16.0 points. The only other week he cracked double-digits was in Week 6 with 10.5 points. Fantasy managers can safely drop Cook and treat him as the streamer he is, especially with his declining role and target share.

 

On the Hot Seat

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

81.2% Rostership

It sucks to put a player you genuinely like on the Cut List, especially with how well he's played for Tennessee since becoming the starter, but this season hasn't been what we're used to seeing. Last year, Tannehill produced six games of 25 or more points. In 2019, he produced four such games in just 10 starts. This season, he has zero games of 25 or more points. The upside fantasy managers were chasing from the past is gone.

He has eight games with under 20 points. He had nine such games in 2020, but he has six more games on the docket. 36% of his starts have left fantasy managers with less than 15 points. And again, he's had exactly zero boom weeks. It's getting harder and harder to trust Tannehill and the offensive injuries are only getting worse.

We all know Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are on IR, but in Week 11, A.J. Brown got banged up and his status is unknown. Anthony Firkser also missed Week 11 and Marcus Johnson was ruled out with a hamstring injury he suffered early in that contest. It's hard to drop someone who has been so dependable for fantasy managers, but this is a new offense with a new offensive coordinator and no Derrick Henry. I'm not fully ready to drop Tannehill because I trust in the talent of Brown and am hopeful that they'll eventually lean into the passing game more than they have without Henry. However, I'm starting to lose my patience and fantasy managers should be too.

 

Hold On

Alex Collins, Seattle Seahawks

50.5% Rostership

It's tough to hold onto Alex Collins and I can understand if it's a tough sell, but here's the thing... he's a starting running back. Now, I know I proposed cutting all of the running backs for the Titans and Bills, but they don't really have a starting running back – they are true committees. The Seahawks do, he just hasn't been very effective. However, since becoming the starter in Week 5, Collins has averaged 14 touches per game. Unfortunately, he's only been able to post double-digit points in one of those games. It should be noted, however, three of those six games were played without Russell Wilson, which is unquestionably going to negatively affect the offense.

With Chris Carson on IR for the rest of the season and Rashaad Penny hurt again, Collins is pretty much the only guy Pete Carroll can turn to. DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are not guys who are going to run in between the tackles and they're not goal-line backs. As long as Collins continues operating in the role he currently has, fantasy managers should continue stashing him. He can't be started right now, but the fact of the matter is, there are very few running backs getting 14 touches per game. With Wilson at quarterback and Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf at receiver, it's only a matter of time before this offense starts producing more points. When they do, Collins will be the one getting the chance to punch in those short-yardage scores. It's been tough for a few weeks, but it's impossible to drop a de facto starting running back this season with all the injuries across the league.

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

45.7% Rostership

It's been an awful sophomore season for Shenault. There's no way around that. Many fantasy managers had hopes of his role expanding when D.J. Chark when down with his season-ending injury, but all that did was push Shenault out of the slot and out wide where he's had a much harder time being successful. The injury moved Jamal Agnew into the slot and he immediately became a streaming-worthy flex play in full-PPR leagues. Shenault struggled to maintain his fantasy relevance. In Week 11, however, Agnew became the latest injury for the Jaguars' skilled players. He went down with a torn ACL, which allowed Shenault to move back into the slot.

In Week 11, he ran the most routes out of the slot for the Jaguars since Week 4. Any guesses on what Shenault did in Week 4? He had seven targets, which led the team. He turned those seven targets into a team-leading six receptions and 99 yards. In Week 11, he had five targets and caught all of them for 50 yards.

Trevor Lawrence is running out of weapons to throw the ball to. He's essentially down to Marvin Jones Jr., Dan Arnold and Shenault. Shenault is likely going to be the full-time slot receiver. Since Agnew became the full-time slot receiver in Week 5, he's been the WR31 in full-PPR scoring. I understand no one is getting excited about a WR3, but that's a quality player to have on your bench. The slot position has been a fairly productive one in the Jaguars' offense and Shenault will now revert back to the role he seems best suited for.

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