RADIO
There's a Sheryl Crow song from the '90s in which Crow sings that "a change would do you good." It's a sentiment that works well when applied to someone's personal life, but it's a complicated notion when it comes to sports. Players who move between teams often find themselves struggling to fit in with their new environment, failing to mesh with new coaching staffs and new offensive schemes. For every successful move--DeMarco Murray going from an afterthought with the Eagles to a workhorse back last year in Tennessee--there's a less than successful move, like Brock Osweiler's ill-fated season with the Texans.
We saw a good deal of player movement this season. Some of these players have found their way onto my DO NOT DRAFT list--Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Latavius Murray are all in new situations that don't seem ideal--but there are also some who really will find greener pastures after their change of scenery, players you should seriously consider drafting.
Here are four names that should be on your radar this preseason. (Note: All Average Draft Position (ADP) information is for a 12-team standard league and taken from FantasyFootballCalculator.com.)
NFL Free Agents with Rising Stock
Mike Gillislee (RB, NE)
Current ADP: 5.10
Last season, the logic that fantasy players should never trust the New England backfield went out the window when LeGarrette Blount finished as a top-10 fantasy back. Blount is gone now and the Patriots have brought in Gillislee and Rex Burkhead as replacements. With those two players, plus Dion Lewis and James White behind the quarterback, it would make sense for you to revert to your old Patriots plan--don't draft any of their running backs.
But wait! Lewis, White, and Burkhead are all variations of the same thing--backs who are quick and good at catching from the backfield. None of them resemble Blount. That's where Gillislee comes into play.
Last season, playing as LeSean McCoy's backup, Gillislee averaged 5.1 yards a carry, with eight touchdowns. He added nine receptions as well, but the majority of Gillislee's work came from his rushing ability. Trying to figure out who to own out of Burkhead, Lewis, and White is going to be nearly impossible, but Gillislee should be on the field on first and second down more than any of them, he should see the majority of the goal line work, and he should the back that New England uses to run the clock when they get ahead. Gillislee doesn't have a history of fumbling, so expect Bill Belichick to trust him right out of the gate.
Eric Decker (WR, TEN)
Current ADP: 10.02
Anything has to be better than being a Jet still, right? Decker is a tough case because he missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, but moving to Tennessee is a huge, huge move up from what could have been a wasted season with the 2017 New York Jets.
Last season, the Titans offense had a lot going for it--the RB5 in standard scoring in DeMarco Murray, a top-15 fantasy quarterback in Marcus Mariota, and the TE5 in Delanie Walker. All that they were really lacking was a top tier receiver--Rishard Matthews finished with 945 yards and nine touchdowns last year despite being on no one's radar at the start of the season. Decker--who finished with 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns in three of his last four full seasons--should slide right into the Tennessee offense and put up those kind of numbers again. Health is a concern, but it shouldn't deter fantasy players from giving him a chance. Decker gives a good offense its one missing piece.
Jeremy Maclin (WR, BAL)
Current ADP: 9.06
Maclin's raw numbers from last year don't look great: 44 catches for 536 yards and two touchdowns. Remember, though, that those numbers came in 12 games and that Maclin wasn't 100% healthy in all the games he played. Also remember that Kansas City receivers--minus Maclin's 2015 campaign--have struggled under the Andy Reid/Alex Smith regime.
Maclin still averaged 12.2 yards per catch last season--just .3 less than in his 1,088 yard and eight TD 2015 season. Yes, it was a career low, but Maclin still displayed his ability to get first downs and keep the chains moving.
Now, he finds himself in Baltimore, a team that is looking to replace the departed Steve Smith. Smith put up 799 yards and five touchdowns last season and did that while being thirty-seven years old. Look: I'm not trying to say that Jeremy Maclin is a better player than a prime Steve Smith, but it seems pretty reasonable to assume he can give the Ravens AT LEAST what Smith gave them last season. Factor in the Baltimore run game being...well...underwhelming, plus the Ravens no longer having Dennis Pitta there to be Joe Flacco's sure thing safety valve, and Maclin's future season looks really, really enticing for fantasy owners.
Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI)
Current ADP: 3.08
This ranking is dependent on Carson Wentz showing continued growth in 2017. Wentz was a below average quarterback in his first season--both in real life and in fantasy, where he was only owned in most leagues by that one Eagles fan who always overdrafts Eagles players. Still, there are signs that he could look better in 2017. His success over his team's first four games shouldn't be disregarded, and the addition of Jeffery gives him a number one receiver. That helps Wentz.
It also helps Jeffery. A combination of injuries and suspension limited Alshon to just twenty games over the past two seasons. Chicago signing Mike Glennon and drafting Mitchell Trubisky would have limited Jeffery's output had he stayed with the Bears, but a fresh start in Philadelphia should be just what Alshon needs to get back to the heights of his 2013 and 2014 seasons. The Eagles already had a strong defense--this offseason they went all in on improving an offense that ranked 22nd in yards per game.
Again, this ranking depends on a lot of factors--can Carson Wentz average more than one touchdown per game?Regardless, Alshon Jeffery should be a solid pickup for both the Eagles and your fantasy team, though be warned that his expected ADP is higher than the other players mentioned here. Jeffery is definitely a risk, but he's one who could pay off big time.
