RADIO
In this article, I'll lay out the second part of my draft strategy for the ideal slot in order to maximize fantasy potential in MFL10 leagues. The foundation was laid in the first part of this draft with two upper-echelon running backs, a trio of high-ceiling receivers, and pair of San Diego Los Angeles Chargers at QB and TE.
As you know, the middle rounds are often where many drafts are truly won. How do we best supplement our team from rounds 9-16? Here's how I would proceed, in my perfect MFL10 draft:
ADP values are taken from recent MFL10 drafts, based on a 12-team, PPR format.
My Ideal MFL10 Draft - Rounds 9-16
Round 9: Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) 9.03 - Wait, didn't we just draft a QB in the eighth round? Yessir and now we're following up wily veteran Philip Rivers with up-and-coming gunslinger Dak Prescott. The past few years I've employed a strategy that has worked remarkably well regarding quarterbacks. I wait until the middle rounds and then grab two QB in consecutive picks - one with a high floor but somewhat limited upside and one with a high ceiling but includes some risk.
This approach worked wonders back in 2012 when I was able to secure Michael Vick and Peyton Manning in rounds 7-8 (I actually got Vick first). Believe it or not, Manning was the risky pick at the time since he was just coming off of a neck injury that cost him all of the 2011 season. He was moving to a new team for the first time and the uncertainty of his health was enough to scare people away. His ceiling was too much for me to ignore, so I took a chance and wound up with 4,659-yard, 37-TD season from my #2 QB. Vick had been a solid QB the year before, but fell off quite a bit that season. Even luckier for me, I managed to trade him by Week 3 to a QB-needy owner in exchange for a pretty good second receiver. The point here is that if I'm waiting on QB (I am) then I'm securing two within the same tier. Last year, I wound up with a combo of Kirk Cousins/Derek Carr on three different teams, which made me ecstatic. Prescott's rookie season went about as well as it possibly could have. He will maintain a high floor due to his running ability and playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football should keep him upright all season long. Now we won't have to think about the QB position until the bitter end when we take a lottery ticket on someone like Colin Kaepernick or Paxton Lynch (spoiler alert).
Round 10: Kenny Britt (WR, CLE) 10.10 - I'm tempted to go with Breshad Perriman if he's still around, but there may be a veteran with more upside around in Kenny Britt. I had to convince myself that Britt was as good as he showed in a pathetic Rams offense last year, but I am a believer now. We already discussed Terrelle Pryor, so now we must imagine Britt in that role. Cleveland's QB play couldn't possibly get more shaky (could it?) so 1,000 yards is definitely possible given that Pryor missed some time with injury yet still achieved the feat in 2016. Britt isn't the fleetest of foot, but his length gives him an advantage catching balls over the middle. His lack of TD production over the years makes him better suited for PPR leagues, which we're assuming in this mock.
Round 11: Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) 11.03 - This is more of a want than a need, but when I see another second-year tight end with upside this late, I'm all in. Hooper was a minor part of the Falcons' high-flying offense last year, but he flashed his talent once Jacob Tamme was out injured, catching eight passes in a two-week span. You may remember Hooper's touchdown in the Super Bowl, which goes to show their trust in the young man. While Kyle Shanahan may be gone, they will not simply revert to a mediocre offensive team. As an athletic tight end in a dynamic passing attack, Hooper could even blossom into a TE1.
Round 12: Christian McCaffrey (RB, ?) 12.10 - At this point in the draft, we start seeing fliers go off the board. Others may burn picks on the likes of Josh Gordon or Marshawn Lynch, but we're going to bolster our depth at running back. After all, both our main backs (Le'Veon Bell and Jay Ajayi) have a history of injuries and we know the attrition rate at the position. None of the veteran backs available are going to help us much, so we dip our toes into the rookie pool. Assuming Leonard Fournette is already taken, we'll go with combine stud McCaffrey. McCaffrey ran a 4.48 40-yard dash and finished in the 97th percentile in his Agility score, so we know the skills should transfer to the NFL. Fournette's current ADP of 138 overall should rise once the NFL Draft takes place and Dalvin Cook is likely gone too. McCaffrey has a better chance of contributing in the passing game than Fournette and doesn't have character questions like Cook, so this may turn out to be the safest pick after all.
Round 13: J.J. Nelson (WR, ARI) 13.03 - After last season, you may be wary of taking any Arizona receiver not named Larry, but at this stage we could be getting a bargain. Michael Floyd isn't there to take us space any more and John Brown is proving less reliable than expected. Fitz will still get the lion's share of targets, as he more than doubled Nelson, the next leading WR. Nelson is the best deep threat in town, however, and even garnered 11 red zone targets - third behind David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. If we're going to take a chance on a receiver in a best-ball format, why not a third-year player on a pass-happy team who ended the season with four TD in his last five games?
Round 14: Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, TB) 14.10 - Will the Bucs re-sign Doug Martin? Are they in the mix for AP? Are they planning to draft a running back, such as local product Dalvin Cook? There's a good chance one of these scenarios plays out to provide competition for Rodgers, along with pass-catching specialist Charles Sims. Martin returning might be the best scenario for Rodgers' value, considering he will be suspended for the first three games of the year. Rodgers was the only back in Tampa to provide fantasy value in 2016 and at times he looked downright dominant. His 30-carry, 101-yard performance in Week 5, followed by a 154-yard rushing game the next week made him waiver wire gold for a period. Unfortunately, injury derailed that magical ride, but he came back strong in the final two weeks once Martin was a non-factor. Even if we only squeeze a few good games from Rodgers, he is well worth the lotto ticket at this point.
Round 15: Charles Clay (TE, BUF) 15.03 - Don't assume we're about to take a kicker or defense any time soon - those will be filled in through the last couple of rounds, which don't require analysis here. Instead, this is the time to secure a third and final tight end for depth purposes. Since we went young with our first two picks (Henry and Hooper), six-year veteran Charles Clay will fit nicely on our squad. Despite a relatively quiet fantasy season, Clay actually led the Bills in targets, mostly due to injuries to Sammy Watkins and pretty much every other receiver on the team. Clay just signed a five-year deal to remain the featured TE in Buffalo and my counterpart Nathan Powell already laid out the reasons he is one of his top MFL10 targets at the position, so you don't have to take my word for it.
Round 16: Paxton Lynch (QB, DEN) 16.10 - Tony Romo's unofficial retirement definitely has a ripple effect on the fantasy landscape. Lynch now gets the chance to compete with Trevor Siemian for the starting job and prove why Jerry Jones was so disappointed to end up with Dak Prescott as a consolation prize (imagine that). Lynch is a classic case of a player who was hyped up tremendously before the draft and then quickly discarded because he didn't look like an All Pro in his first NFL season. Lynch only got two starts under his belt and didn't exactly embarrass himself by completing 59% of his passes and finishing with a positive 2/1 TD/INT rate. The Broncos still have one of the best pass-catching duos in the league, so Lynch still possesses a high ceiling, which is all we're looking for in a QB3.
Certainly your ideal MFL10 will differ from mine here and there (or everywhere), but this may at least give you a sense of where some of the best values are according to current ADP. If you're dying to @ me in order to tell me how you couldn't agree more or can't believe how I came up with these picks, the floor is yours: @pfunk00
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