RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I also write “The First Serve” for Tennis if you have not checked it out yet!
Today we will entertain the smallest main slate of the season so far with only four matches. However, we have two huge favorites on the slate, Manchester City -750 and Liverpool -525. They will both be largely owned in all contests and Manchester City stacking will be the difference maker from the over-popular Liverpool plays.
If you want to truly win a GPP look for lower-owned midfielders from either side to hopefully score one of their only goals of the season and also a possible defender goal from a set-piece. All writeups are based off projected lineups.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 3
[H] Norwich (+245) at [A] Watford (+115): Total: 2 1/2u
Both clubs are struggling for points, but they are both playing well enough to win matches against equal competition. The Canaries have lost their last two matches by one goal each to Leicester and Arsenal. Prior to that, they lost 5-0 and 3-0 to Manchester City and Liverpool respectively. They have also had a few injuries which has also made it tough to figure out set-pieces. However, they look to be healthy coming into this match and Rashica should take back over sets if that is the case. Watford has been playing decent football, but they have lost some questionable matches and they have yet to gel since their home opener against Aston Villa. In terms of raw skill, Watford should edge it out, but with the home crowd involved and slightly better form, Norwich will at least find a point, if not better.
Expected Outcome: 2-1 Norwich
NOR:
Cash/GPP:
M/F: Cantwell($5.6K), Rashica($5.1K), Gilmour($3.7K)
GPP: Sargent($6.4K), Pukki($5.6K), Tim Krul($5.1K), Aarons($4.3K), Williams($3.9K)
WAT:
Cash/GPP:
D: Masina($3.8K), Rose($3.7K)
M/F: Sarr($7.9K), Cleverley($4.5K)
GPP: Dennis($5.8K), Bachmann($4.6K), King($4.3K)
[H] Burnley (+280) at [A] Arsenal (+100): Total: 2 1/2u
Burnley has not fared well with only a single point so far this season. Meanwhile, Arsenal continues to disappoint with just one domestic win so far this season, which they just picked up last weekend in a 1-0 win over Norwich at home. The most surprising stat between the two clubs is that Burnley has outscored Arsenal so far this season with 3:1 respectively. This should be one of the more boring matches of the slate and weekend and should easily hit under 2 ½.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
BUR:
Cash/GPP:
G: Pope($4.2K)
D: Taylor($4.7K)
M/F: McNeil($8K), Westwood($6.1K)
GPP: Gudmundsson($4.7K), Lowton($4.5K)
ARS:
Cash/GPP:
M/F: Pepe($8.7K), Aubameyan($7.7K), Saka($7.1K)
GPP: Odegaard($5.5K), Ramsdale($5.3K), Tierney($5.1K), Tomiyasu($4K)
[H] Liverpool (-525) at Crystal Palace [A] (+1300): Total: 3o
Palace started the season awful at best, but they are now coming off their first win under new bench boss Patrick Viera and it was a huge 3-0 victory over the Spurs. It will certainly give them a boost heading to Anfield. However, Liverpool has a strong history against the Eagles and it is most likely going to continue. Over the past three meetings, Liverpool is 3-0 and has outscored Palace 13-0. If there was any team to stack in this slate, it is definitely Liverpool. If you want to be the difference-maker to win a GPP, play some of their midfielders and hope they score one of their few goals on the season.
Expected Outcome: 4-0 Liverpool
LIV:
Cash/GPP:
G: Alisson($5.8K)
D: Alexander-Arnold($9K), Roberton($6.4K)
M/F: Salah($10.8K), Mane($10K), Jota($8.3K)
GPP: Thiago($6.2K), van Dijk($4.2K),Henderson($3.5K)
CRY:
Cash/GPP:
GPP: Gallagher($6.8K), Zaha($6.3K), Edouard($6K), Guaita($3.7K), Kouyate($3K)
[H] Manchester City (-750) at [A] Southampton (+1600): Total: 3 1/2u
Southampton still has yet to claim their first domestic win on the season and they have also been in some questionable form thus far. They have managed to tie both Manchester United and West Ham United at 1-1 and 0-0 respectively. But they have also tied Newcastle United 2-2 after they were thought of as slight favorites. On the flip side, the hosts of the Etihad have gone on a rampage since their back-to-back 1-0 losses to start the season. In that span, they have three domestic wins and one Champions League win and they have outscored their opponents 17-3 in that timeframe. That is beyond impressive for the lack of a true striker in their starting XI. The only issue is trying to pinpoint where the production will come from each match.
Expected Outcome: 3-0 Manchester City
MAC:
Cash/GPP:
G: Ederson($5.9K)
D: Cancelo($5.5K)
M/F: De Bruyne($10.2K), Jesus($8.5K), Torres($8.1K), Gundogan($7.8K), Sterling($7.6K),
GPP: Ake($3.2K), Dias($3.5K)
SOU:
Cash/GPP:
M/F: Ward-Prowse($6.5K)
GPP: Elyounoussi($4.9K), Walker-Peters($3.6K), Djenepo($3.6K), Livramento($3.4K), McCarthy($3.5K)
Top 5 Pace:
Bottom 5 Pace:
Top 5 Crosses:
Top 5 Crosses Conceded:
Expected Corner Takers:
Norwich: Milot Rashica/Billy Gilmour
Watford: Cleverley/Sarr/Masina
Burnley: Dwight McNeil/Ashley Westwood
Arsenal: Nicolas Pepe
Liverpool: Trent Alexander-Arnold
Crystal Palace: Conor Gallagher
Manchester City: Kevin De Bruyne
Southampton: James Ward-Prowse
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me bmwvolleyball94@gmail.com or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
