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The King's FFPC Classic Draft Analysis: Aggressive Against ADP

Michael Thomas New Orleans Saints

In late July, I made my first excursion of the year into the high stakes world, in a Fantasy Football Players Championship Classic Draft. Not only will you see my picks here, you will also understand my strategies and approaches for every selection and get an overall assessment of the draft. The goal is to provide helpful insights that you can utilize in your own drafts, especially against the higher levels of competition in the FFPC. Even at the more budget-friendly levels, you will encounter many savvy competitors.

The FFPC Classic Format has no head-to-head matchups from Weeks 1-13, and total points are accumulated weekly. Head to head matchups then are used in the playoffs. FFPC scoring categories include four points for a TD pass,  one point PPR except for TEs, which receive 1.5 points per reception. FFPC Classic starting lineups include 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX, one defense and one kicker.

The full draft board follows my selections and analysis.

 

The King's FFPC Classic Draft Picks and Analysis

The 2019 FFPC Scoring Leaders via FantasyMojo.com. Michael Thomas scored nearly 100 points more than Chris Godwin (No. 2 WR overall) and was sixth overall in total points. 

  1. Michael Thomas (Latest FFPC Classic Redraft ADP 5, as per FantasyMojo.com): : The very best elite four RBs were gone, and Thomas is the safest high-level pick you can make once those players are off the board. He scored nearly 100 points more than the next best WR last year and even if he regresses from his monster 2019 totals, he should still finish in the Top 3 at his position.
  2. Austin Ekeler (19): I have Melvin Gordon ranked higher than Ekeler, but I was looking at grabbing two ideal RBs after starting with a WR, and I was confident Gordon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be there on the turn. Ekeler wouldn’t make it back.
  3. Melvin Gordon (32): I went for Gordon ahead of his ADP. I like him better than a lot of analysts, though, and there are apparent concerns about Chris Carson’s durability. After that, I see a drop-off to the likes of David Johnson and Todd Gurley. Gordon was a necessary pick here, the last remaining available RB2 type I felt very comfortable with and I think he rebounds to low-end RB1 status in 2020.
  4. Zach Ertz (34): With the extra emphasis on TE scoring in the FFPC format, I had to make an early move at the position to assure myself of a Top 5 performer. Ertz fell off last year but remains the top target for Carson Wentz. I can still get 75 catches, 850 yards and six or more TDs as a floor.
  5. Tyler Lockett (52): A bit underrated, any second half concerns from last year were health-related. The rise of DK Metcalf can mean he faces less defensive attention.
  6. Kyler Murray (67): I was tempted to wait longer at QB, yet no other player at the position other than Lamar Jackson gives me more rushing promise and he now has DeAndre Hopkins.
  7. KeShawn Vaughn (87): Spare me the Ronald Jones positive talk, I have heard it before.  “Rojo” is just a lesser version of Jerick McKinnon. The Buccaneers drafted Vaughn  Jones is destined to fail and is from a previous regime. Vaughn will be the starter after a few weeks.
  8. Rob Gronkowski (96): I can use Gronk as a flex here, and there is still strong potential for a quality campaign. A season off for rest and working with Brady again fuels some optimism.
  9. CeeDee Lamb (116): Another spot where I was aggressive to get a player with upside who can be a difference-maker. Lamb can surpass Michael Gallup as Dallas’ WR2 this year and will be the best rookie WR of 2020.
  10. Breshad Perriman (145): Way ahead of the ADP here, but you can’t be hesitant against high stakes types. Perriman can be a more frequent big-play target than Robby Anderson was.
  11. Joshua Kelley (167): In retrospect, I reached too early here. Kelley has still been available three rounds later in other drafts with similar competition. I am higher on him than anyone else it seems, as he is destined to become the Chargers’ lead inside and TD runner.
  12. Irv Smith Jr. (154): He could be the second or third best pass-catcher for Kirk Cousins this year and may prove to be a real value as a third TE selection in this format.
  13. Damien Harris (155): He may be undervalued at that ADP. Harris will threaten Sony Michel’s job and could operate very successfully in an RPO attack with a revived Cam Newton.
  14. Philip Rivers (212): I would have taken Ben Roethlisberger if he did not have the same bye week as Murray. Rivers will play behind a better offensive line with a pretty good receiving crew. Good backup for Murray, yet I could have waited a bit longer for him.
  15. Allen Lazard (183): A prime late value play who should emerge as Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 WR.
  16. Ravens Defense (170): Wanted one of the better units as I was very confident in who else I could pick off late. Opportunistic big-play defense spurred by a tenacious secondary.
  17. Laviska Shenault (210): The Jaguars have been trying to fill that No. 2 WR hole for awhile.  He can be the answer.
  18. Zane Gonzalez (256): I don’t blindly draft kickers. Gonzalez is top 3-4 at his position. He finished fourth in the NFL in kicker points last year and made 31 of 35 attempts. Made both of his 50-plus yard attempts and had only one miss inside 40 yards.
  19. Dan Arnold (272): The Cardinals have some significant plans for Arnold, especially as a TD target. Gladly will take a late shot on another TE in this format.
  20. DeeJay Dallas (295): He is an intriguing speed/size RB who can figure in the mix if injuries continue to plague the Seahawks backfield this year.

Summary: I frequently drafted many players ahead of their ADP, but I could not take an approach of wait-and-see and lose out on players I really wanted in many cases. I had to be aggressive in this type of league because of the level of competition and type of scoring. There is a good blend of established players and value performers at RB and a strong base at WR with much upside. My TEs are ideal top to bottom. Sure, I could have waited on Kelley and a second QB, but otherwise this was a very satisfying draft.



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