The Outsiders: Deeper Hitting Prospects to Know For Dynasty Leagues

Welcome to the latest update where I highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

Overview

My Outsider rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average looks at the league-adjusted production of all qualified hitters in full-season baseball, age 24 and under, so far in 2021.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Trevor Hauver's 221 Estimated Barrel+ rate is 121 points above the average performance in Low-A Southeast so far in 2021.

OPS+ a measure of a hitter's overall offensive production, combining on-base percentage and slugging.

Estimated Barrel+ my proprietary quality of contact metric which estimates the percentage of batted balls that were Statcast Barrels. A full write-up on the metric can be found here.

Estimated xwOBA+ takes a hitter's Estimated Barrels, K%, and BB% and estimates his Expected Weighted On Base Average. Measures a hitter's total offensive production in a linear weights method for offensive events. You can read more on xwOBA here.

BB:K+ is the ratio of a batter's walks to strikeouts, to measure a hitter's plate discipline and selectivity.

Contact%+ measures a batter's ability to make contact and put balls in play. Vital for batting average and on base percentage.

Spd+ is the FanGraphs version of Bill James' speed score concept. Measures various factors of a hitter's in-game speed and baserunning ability.

SB%+ is the percentage of successful stolen base attempts. Measures a batter's stolen base efficiency.

SBO%+ is an estimate of how frequently a batter attempts to steal bases. Measures a batter's aggressiveness on the base paths.

Here's a breakdown of each of these 10 Outsiders.

Joe Gray Jr., OF - Milwaukee Brewers

Current situation:

The Brewers selected Joe Gray Jr. as a prep bat in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft. At the time of his selection, Gray was generally regarded as one of the most tooled up players in the draft class. However, there were questions surrounding his ability to hit against more elite pitching. Gray struggled with two levels of rookie ball, but something clicked for him during the lost 2020 season. He looks fantastic in Low-A so far this year, performing at an average or above level in every statistical component of Outsider+. This includes both his BB:K ratio and his contact %, showing that Gray is maturing when it comes to plate discipline. On top of that, he has an excellent power and speed profile that makes him a must-add for dynasty leaguers.

Izzy Wilson, OF - Los Angeles Angels

Current situation:

This is Izzy Wilson's second appearance on an Outsider leaderboard this season. He continues to perform at the Double-A level in 2021, racking up 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases in just 37 games. I created a "Power+Speed" score which uses estimated barrels and the three "speed" elements of the Outsider+ calculation, and Wilson is the 2nd best player on that list so far this season:

Scoop him up if you can. The power is legit. Here you can see him flashing pretty big opposite field game power:

https://twitter.com/AngelsMiLB/status/1403493137272631296?s=20
 

Josh Smith, SS - New York Yankees

Current situation:

Yankees' 2B prospect Josh Smith comes in not far behind Izzy Wilson on the "Power+Speed" leaderboard. He was the team's second round pick out of Louisiana State University in the 2019 draft. The team gave him a pretty easy initial assignment in Low-A ball, which he torched (1.275 OPS). He has  also continued to hit since his promotion to the High-A level (1.019 OPS). Smith has put up 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his 57 game minor league career. Look for the team to push him to Double-A later in the summer if he continues to hit at this pace. Another notable development is that Smith has been his team's primary shortstop at both levels, showing that the team wants to see if he can succeed in an important role.

Romy Gonzalez, SS - Chicago White Sox

Current situation:

This is Romy Gonzalez's second appearance on the Outsider leaderboard this season. While he's continuing to hit for Double-A Birmingham, the bat has cooled off a bit in June (.772 OPS) as opposed to May (.962 OPS). Similar to Josh Smith with the Yankees, the White Sox have handed Gonzalez the starting shortstop job to see how he holds up as a key contributor on both sides of the ball. The 24-year-old might be in line for a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte before the end of the year.

Griffin Conine, OF - Miami Marlins

Current situation:

The son of "Mr. Marlin" finds himself on the Outsider list yet again. I'm beginning to have an infatuation with Griffin Conine. His estimated barrel % is a whopping 19.6% on the season so far. He's hit 41 home runs in 673 career minor league at-bats. Sure, the contact rate and walk rates are low, but in the event he can reign in the strikeouts a bit, this is big time power that can carry him to MLB success. Here he is casually hitting one 435 feet to dead center:

Spencer Steer, 2B/3B/SS - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Spencer Steer was the Twins 3rd round selection out of the University of Oregon in the 2019 draft. He's been playing all over the infield for the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2021. He pops up on this week's Outsider list as he's showing an excellent approach at the plate (248 BB:K+ is 148% above league average) while doing damage when he makes contact (12.1% estimated barrel rate). It's the kind of patience and power profile that I tend to mine for at the MLB level, so seeing it happen early in the minors is hopefully a harbinger of things to come for Steer. He should be in line for a promotion to Double-A soon.

Jahmai Jones, 2B/OF - Baltimore Orioles

Current situation:

Prospect heads will remember that Jahmai Jones was once a pretty hyped back-end of the Top-100 level prospect. Well he's a post-hype guy now, but at 23-years-old and tearing up the competition at Triple-A, he should still be on your radar. Jones was traded from the Angels to the Orioles for Alex Cobb this offseason. He's currently performing above-average at every Outsider+ metric, which is an extremely difficult thing to do. He's walking more than he's striking out, which is an extremely difficult thing to do. He also presents an intriguing power+speed combination for fantasy owners. Don't sleep on him!

Jaxx Groshans, C - Red Sox

Current situation:

Toronto Blue Jays SS/3B Jordan Groshans already appears on the RotoBaller Top-250 prospects. What about his older brother Jaxx? Jaxx Groshans is a catching prospect out of Kansas University. Jaxx is currently dominating the competition at the Low-A level, with a promotion to High-A likely coming soon. Similar to Jahmai Jones, Groshans has walked more than he's struck out so far this season. He's posted an excellent .395 estimated xwOBA in 2021, showing that his plate approach combined with his ability to drive the ball should mean good offensive results for him moving forward. He's got the arm to stick behind the dish as well:

Kevin Smith, SS - Toronto Blue Jays

Current situation:

Similar to Jahmai Jones, Kevin Smith is another prospect who was receiving Top 100 buzz a few years back only to find himself an afterthought after some struggles. Well 2021 seems to be a consolidation year for this former University of Maryland Terrapin. Smith's excellent .397 estimated xwOBA is driven by his excellent 14.4% estimated barrel rate. He's also been very successful on the basepaths, swiping 9 bags to go along with his 10 home runs. He's been the primary shortstop for Triple-A Buffalo, but has also seen some time at 3B this year. His glove will need to be versatile in order to break into a young and talented Toronto lineup, but keep Smith on your radar in the event the team needs reinforcements for it's playoff run this year.

Chase Krogman, OF - Chicago White Sox

Current situation:

Chase Krogman is a Missouri prep product that the White Sox gave a $190k signing bonus to so that he would forgo his commitment to Missouri State for college ball. Krogman, 20, was a two-way player in high school. He's an excellent athlete with an arm strong enough for any outfield position. Don't be scared off by his smallish frame. He's a tightly-wound hitter with excellent power potential (16.2% estimated barrel rate so far this season). He should be available in deeper formats and is a good speculative add to see if he can grab some helium with his 2021 performance.

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