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Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.
For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.
The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.
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Overview
This is the second update of the 2021 season for the Outsider Pitcher ranks. These rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average weighs the production for each pitcher that has logged at least 10 innings pitched in 2021. This week, I sorted the overall pitchers by their Estimated ERA, and listed the Top-10 starting pitchers that aren't on our Top-250 rankings.
Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:
| Name | Team | Level | League | Age | EstRA | OUT+ | EstRA+ | K%+ | BB%+ | GB%+ | SwStr%+ | Strike%+ | GS% |
| Caleb Kilian | SFG | AA | NE | 24 | 0.59 | 508 | 662 | 147 | 848 | 128 | 129 | 117 | 100% |
| Jason Bilous | CHW | AA | South | 23 | 0.93 | 339 | 422 | 165 | 283 | 98 | 150 | 113 | 100% |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | A | East | 22 | 1.07 | 314 | 380 | 201 | 128 | 57 | 185 | 108 | 100% |
| Peyton Battenfield | TBR | A+ | East | 23 | 1.33 | 243 | 295 | 150 | 234 | 111 | 117 | 108 | 86% |
| Brandon Williamson | SEA | A+ | West | 23 | 1.37 | 241 | 287 | 164 | 140 | 96 | 143 | 108 | 100% |
| Tylor Megill | NYM | AA | NE | 25 | 1.51 | 228 | 269 | 147 | 149 | 141 | 145 | 107 | 100% |
| John Doxakis | TBR | A | East | 22 | 1.79 | 198 | 227 | 136 | 411 | 98 | 132 | 116 | 100% |
| Santiago Florez | PIT | A | Southeast | 21 | 1.88 | 195 | 225 | 137 | 212 | 115 | 128 | 112 | 83% |
| Brayan Bello | BOS | A+ | East | 22 | 1.91 | 180 | 206 | 131 | 176 | 127 | 131 | 102 | 100% |
| Glenn Otto | NYY | AA | Northeast | 25 | 1.95 | 181 | 208 | 154 | 148 | 94 | 121 | 109 | 86% |
Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Roansy Contreras's 149 K%+ rate has been 49 percentage points above the average performance in Double-A Northeast in 2021.
- EstRA+ is a run estimator that uses a pitcher's K%, BB%, and GB% to estimate how many runs he would have allowed given neutral luck.
- K%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher struck out.
- BB%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher walked.
- GB%+ shows what percentage of balls in play allowed by the pitcher were groundballs.
- SwStr%+ shows the percentages swings and misses a pitcher generated on every pitch that he threw. A companion to K%+ to help measure dominance.
- Strike%+ shows the percentage of pitches that the pitcher threw for strikes. A companion to BB%+ to help measure command.
- GS% shows the percentage of appearances that the pitcher made in a starting role. A measure to determine what role the organization plans on using the pitcher in.
Caleb Kilian - RHP, San Francisco Giants
Current situation:
After a fantastic 4-start stint at High-A, Caleb Kilian was promoted to Double-A Richmond where he continues to shove. He's flashed excellent control (117 Strike%+) and command (848 BB%+, 12.75 K:BB ratio) while also showing enough dominance to strike out hitters (129 SwStr+). The Giants selected Kilian out of Texas Tech University in the 8th round of the 2019 draft, and he has steadily added velocity in the pros. His fastball is now reportedly touching 97 mph.
Jason Bilous, RHP - Chicago White Sox
Current situation:
Right-hander Jason Bilous earned a quick promotion to Double-A Birmingham after making three strong starts in High-A to open the season. He's struggled a bit upon settling in to Double-A (1.50 WHIP, .309 batting average against), but he's really been getting killed by a home run rate against him that's likely unsustainable (1.84 HR/9). The rest of his underlying metrics are sound, so as he settles in, look for Bilous to bring his ERA down below 4.00 as the season wears on.
Spencer Strider - RHP, Atlanta Braves
Current situation:
Spencer Strider earned himself a quick promotion after making six dominant starts for Low-A Augusta to start his 2021 campaign. He has now made two starts in High-A and has settled in pretty well already. He's posted a combined 44:10 K:BB ratio while holding opposing hitters to a .169 batting average against this season. Strider is a Clemson alum and displays great athleticism on the mound. He pairs a high octane fastball (touches 100) with good feel for spin on his breaking stuff and a potentially above-average changeup. He's a must add in any format with over 250 minor leaguers rostered.
Peyton Battenfield, RHP - Tampa Bay Rays
Current situation:
Battenfield was recently promoted to Double-A Montgomery after seven excellent appearances in High-A to start the 2021 campaign. Battenfield, 23, is a burly right-hander that profiles as a potential innings-eater moving forward. He has shown excellent command of his four-pitch mix and has transitioned well from college reliever to professional starter thus far for the Rays. As long as he keeps making strong starts, he should be added in the majority of formats.
Brandon Williamson, LHP - Seattle Mariners
Current situation:
Brandon Williamson has been electric in six starts for High-A Everett so far this season. He's generating tons of whiffs (143 SwStr+) backing up an elite strikeout profile (164 K%+) while also keeping the ball in the zone at a good rate (108 Strike%+). Williamson is a lanky lefthander that was drafted by the Mariners out of TCU in the second round of the 2019 draft. He presents a tough angle, especially to left-handed batters, and has a great feel for landing his looping curveball for strikes.
Tylor Megill, RHP - New York Mets
Current situation:
This monstrous (listed at 6'7", 230) righty was promoted to Triple-A Syracuse after chewing up the competition in Double-A over the course of five starts. Megill's appeal is that he can generate a bunch of whiffs while also racking up a ton of ground balls (141 GB%+). This means that he should be good at limiting damage from opposing hitters and should be able to work deep into games. He's a fastball-dominant hurler with a short arm action. I wouldn't be surprised to see him up in Queens sometime during 2021.
John Doxakis, LHP - Tampa Bay Rays
Current situation:
John Doxakis was the Rays 2nd round selection in the 2019 draft out of Texas A&M. The southpaw cruised through seven starts for Low-A Charleston before earning a promotion to High-A Bowling Green this week. Statistically speaking, he's been phenomenal in 2021, throwing a ton of strikes (116 Strike%+) while also generating tons of whiffs at the same time (132 SwStr%+, 136 K%+). He's a lower-arm slot lefty with great deception and has good feel for a potentially plus slider. He mixes in a changeup that works as a whiff generator as well.
Santiago Florez, RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Current situation:
It seems like the Pirates have a wealth of solid pitching prospects at the moment. A pop-up guy in the 2021 season thus far is Santiago Florez, a Colombian right-hander who was signed as an international free agent back in 2016. Florez, 21, is chewing up hitters at the Low-A level, posting an eye-popping 32.8% K-BB ratio so far this season. He's doing it while throwing tons of strikes (112 Strike%+), limiting walks, and generating lots of ground balls. He's a big righty with a fastball that touches the mid-90s and great feel for a breaking ball that shows two-plane break and depth.
Brayan Bello - RHP, Boston Red Sox
Current situation:
This 22-year-old athletic right-hander has been promoted to Double-A Portland after six strong starts in High-A ball. Bello's delivery is electric, allowing him to sit in the 96-97 mph range and reach back to touch triple-digits at times. His control could improve some with a cleaned up arm action, but even as things stand, he's throwing more strikes than the average pitcher (102 Strike%+). He's still a young hurler, so there's time for more development in what is already a very exciting package.
Glenn Otto, RHP - New York Yankees
Current situation:
He's a burly (6'3" 240 lbs) right-hander that the Yankees drafted out of Rice in the 5th round of the 2017 draft. He has been racking up the strikeouts for Double-A Somerset so far in 2021, looking strong with a starter's workload (41 innings pitched). His delivery is unorthodox, hiding the ball from hitters by starting his delivery with his back halfway turned away from home plate. His slider is a legitimate strikeout weapon, and it pairs well with a mid-90s fastball that he can climb the ladder with. Next stop, Triple-A!
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