RADIO
Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.
For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.
The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.
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Overview
This week, I'm moving back to check in on the "classic" Outsider+ formula. Outsider+ is a league-adjusted score that combines several league-adjusted metrics into a single overall score. Some of the top pitching performers in all MiLB by Outsider+ this season are the top pitching prospects in baseball: Shane Baz, Cade Cavalli, Grayson Rodriguez, Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, D.L. Hall, Josiah Gray, Reid Detmers, and more!
The players on my Outsiders list are posting similar scores to these top pitching prospects. So, you can say that they are performing with a similar profile as some of the top young pitchers in the game.
Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021, with their stats for each level in 2021:
| Name | Team | Level | League | Age | OUT+ | EstRA | ZnDm+ | EstRA+ | K%+ | BB%+ | GB%+ | SwStr%+ | Strike%+ | GS% |
| Jean Pinto | BAL | A | East | 20 | 267 | 1.27 | 116 | 327 | 140 | 138 | 179 | 132 | 105 | 100% |
| Randy Vasquez | NYY | A+ | East | 22 | 196 | 1.74 | 113 | 229 | 140 | 140 | 139 | 124 | 106 | 100% |
| Brayan Bello | BOS | A+ | East | 22 | 182 | 1.91 | 113 | 209 | 134 | 174 | 129 | 128 | 103 | 100% |
| Brayan Bello | BOS | AA | NE | 22 | 122 | 3.23 | 105 | 127 | 129 | 106 | 93 | 116 | 98 | 100% |
| Tekoah Roby | TEX | A | East | 19 | 168 | 2.20 | 114 | 189 | 144 | 144 | 108 | 127 | 105 | 100% |
| Tommy Romero | TBR | AA | South | 23 | 167 | 2.23 | 120 | 185 | 147 | 193 | 85 | 129 | 114 | 82% |
| Jose Butto | NYM | AA | NE | 23 | 165 | 2.32 | 127 | 178 | 133 | 230 | 105 | 156 | 108 | 100% |
| Ryan Murphy | SFG | A | West | 21 | 164 | 2.19 | 108 | 185 | 145 | 170 | 94 | 114 | 104 | 100% |
| Bailey Falter | PHI | AAA | East | 24 | 157 | 2.48 | 115 | 174 | 144 | 148 | 106 | 125 | 109 | 86% |
| Connor Thomas | STL | AA | Central | 23 | 146 | 2.66 | 111 | 160 | 105 | 308 | 138 | 115 | 108 | 100% |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | A+ | East | 22 | 145 | 2.68 | 128 | 149 | 140 | 103 | 97 | 165 | 103 | 100% |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | AA | South | 22 | 105 | 4.17 | 116 | 99 | 125 | 75 | 73 | 137 | 102 | 100% |
Jean Pinto, RHP - Baltimore Orioles
Current situation:
This stocky Orioles right-hander shredded the competition in the Florida Complex League before being promoted to Low-A Delmarva at the end of July. He's getting tons of whiffs, strikeouts, and groundballs while being extremely stingy with the walks. He really has a feel for spinning the breaking ball and getting lots of uncomfortable cuts and half-swings from hitters. He also works his fastball low in the zone, leading to his high groundball rate. It's going to be fun to watch him tackle Low-A hitters for the remainder of the year.
Randy Vasquez, RHP - New York Yankees
Current situation:
Randy Vasquez got promoted to High-A after 13 appearances (11 starts) for the organization's Low-A affiliate in Tampa. Then his name was thrown around at the trade deadline as part of the haul going back to Texas in the Joey Gallo deal. However, the Yankees wisely held on to Vasquez. Vasquez has been very solid through his three starts at High-A, even despite the swirling trade rumors. Outsider+ is as enamored with his ability to generate groundballs as it is with his K:BB ratio. Next season should see him tackling the high-minors.
Brayan Bello, RHP - Boston Red Sox
Current situation:
Brayan Bello has been a frequenter of multiple iterations of the Outsider pitchers list this season. Why? Because he just presents the type of statistical profile that future MLB pitchers are built on. While the 22-year-old hasn't been quite as dominant at Double-A, he's still above league average in estimated ERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and swinging-strike rate. He's probably already off the board in your dynasty league, but if he's not, he should be snagged. He's a potential 2022 debutant.
Tekoah Roby, RHP - Texas Rangers
Current situation:
Still just a teenager, Roby was glistening in his full-season debut before going down with an injury in the middle of June. The team is calling it an 'elbow sprain' for now, so expect them to play it extremely safe with this young hurler. Roby could be a star, so make sure that you're stashing him in your minors in deeper leagues. His acquisition cost should be low due to his current injury situation.
Tommy Romero, RHP - Tampa Bay Rays
Current situation:
This 24-year-old righty has been on the Outsider radar for most of the summer. Romero was recently promoted to Triple-A, where he's stumbled out of the gate (10.50 ERA over 3 starts for Durham). However, I really liked what I saw from Romero earlier in the season and I think he's going to be a viable option for the Rays in some capacity next season. The MLB game might move away from the high four-seamer, downer curveball pitching template in coming years, but I think it's a profile that will still work for Romero, especially if his changeup rounds into form as well.
Jose Butto, RHP - New York Mets
Current situation:
New Outsider alert! Jose Butto jumped onto the Outsider radar with an excellent three-start stint upon being called up to Double-A Binghamton. Butto is a 23-year-old Venezuelan righty who signed as an older international free agent in the 2017 class. He's an athletic, broad-shouldered pitcher who gets good armside run on his fastball. The fastball pairs well with his changeup, which tunnels similarly to the heater but drops off the table as it approaches the plate.
Ryan Murphy, RHP - San Francisco Giants
Current situation:
This 21-year-old righty is making his Outsider debut this week. Ryan Murphy is a graduate of Le Moyne College, which is also the alma mater of top pitching prospect Josiah Gray. Murphy was promoted to High-A Eugene this week by the Giants. Murphy earned that promotion on the back of a spectacular performance at Low-A this year, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the course of 15 starts. Murphy could rise quickly if he continues this pace at High-A.
Bailey Falter, LHP - Philadelphia Phillies
Current situation:
This is a tough one. Bailey Falter, a 24-year-old lefty, looked excellent for Triple-A Lehigh Valley before getting the call-up for the Phillies. He looked like he could be a rotation bolster for a team vying for the playoffs again this season. However, Falter tested positive for COVID right as he was about to enter the Phillies rotation. Falter was in quarantine for 12 days and got significantly ill from the virus. What could have been a dazzling debut instead was a stark reminder of the situation we still find ourselves in as a society.
I'm rooting for Falter. After going through the illness, I'm hoping he can bounce back and fulfill the promise he flashed early on this year.
Connor Thomas, LHP - St. Louis Cardinals
Current situation:
Connor Thomas is an undersized lefty who was drafted by the Cardinals in the 5th round of the 2019 draft out of Georgia Tech. Thomas dazzled at Double-A this year, as he was extremely stingy with the free passes (308 BB%+) and got plenty of groundouts (138 GB%+). The Cardinals bumped him up to Triple-A, where he's split time between starting and bullpen roles. It's been more of the same profile for Thomas, with a low walk-rate and high groundball rate. He could be a backend starter if he's able to continue on this trajectory.
Spencer Strider, RHP - Atlanta Braves
Current situation:
If you've been following the Outsiders at all, you already know who Spencer Strider is. He pushed himself all the way to Double-A this year with some outstanding performances at the lower levels, but he has seemed to hit a wall there (6.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP through 7 starts). However, you can see from his Outsiders statistical breakdown that his Zone Dominance (Strike% and Swinging Strike rate) have been well above average at Double-A. Give him some time. I think he's got one more developmental leap in him this year.
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