RADIO
Brian Harman sank a 28-foot birdie putt to capture the Wells Fargo Championship (-10), his second PGA Tour victory. Harman looked destined for a playoff against Dustin Johnson and Pat Perez after flubbing his chip shot, but converted his birdie putt, which had an 8 percent chance of going in. Dustin Johnson looked dead after the first two rounds, just making the cut line at 1-over, but consecutive 5-under 67's put him in the clubhouse lead, until Harman made birdie.
I'll be looking to rebound after a bad week and most importantly, stay atop the PGA Expert leaderboard. I will be providing you with my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for THE PLAYERS Championship.
My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. Additionally, if anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Reviewing Last Week's Pick
It wasn't a good week for me...
Patrick Reed ($9,800)- T-12, 5-under. Was 8-under and in sole possession of the lead heading into the final round, but shot 3-over final round 75.
Webb Simpson ($9,700)- Cut. You'd think a club member would at least make the cut.
Lucas Glover ($8,600)- T-52, 2-over.
Kevin Kisner ($8,400)- Cut
Daniel Berger ($8,300)- T-36, 1-under.
Shane Lowry ($6,900)- T-24, 3-under.
Carl Pettersson ($6,200)- Cut. Same idea with Simpson. You have to make the cut if you're a club member.
THE PLAYERS Championship
THE PLAYERS Championship is the most lucrative tournament on the PGA Tour, with $10.5 million in prizes. The winner will receive $1.89 million and second-place will receive $1.134 million.
48 of 50 players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings will be playing in what is the most competitive field on the PGA Tour. The two exceptions are Brandt Snedeker and Thomas Pieters. Snedeker has an injured wrist and wants to be ready for the U.S. Open, while Pieters just isn't playing.
The course has been completely renovated since last year. TPC Sawgrass was shut done immediately after last year's tournament for around five months to redo the greens and bunkers, with three major changes taking place. The 12th hole was turned into a drivable par-4, 285-320 yards, maxing out at 358. A lagoon was dug up and placed to the left of the hole, around eight yards away from the green and there is a long bunker in front of the green. There were dirt mounds between the sixth and seventh holes, but that was dug up and turned into a body of water. And finally, the greens used to be MiniVerde ultradwarf Bermuda grass, but are now TifEagle, so they can withstand the Floridian weather better. The last three holes are still the same– including the 17th island green– so not to worry.
I've been scouring other websites trying to determine the best metrics and stats to handicap this tournament. These are the four I believe will be the most effective in determining a winner: Scrambling, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation Percentage, and Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green. Long hitters aren't usually so effective here (cough cough Dustin Johnson) while accuracy is vital. Players won't really be using driver off the tee, but rather 3-woods and hybrids.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Cost Players
Dustin Johnson is the highest-priced player in this tournament, ($12,000) but this isn't a tournament for long-hitters. He's never finished in the top-25 at THE PLAYERS and is 138th in driving accuracy, but is second in SG: Approach-the-Green. Take that for how you want, but I'll be avoiding him. My pick to win is Rory McIlroy ($11,200). Although he doesn't qualify for any stats because he hasn't played enough rounds, he'd be right there near the top for the important stats at this event. However, I did find this stat, the top-25 performers on less-than-driver courses since 2013-14, and McIlroy is number one with 2.861 strokes gained: total. McIlroy missed the cut at THE PLAYERS the first three times he played in it, but the last four times has finished 8-6-8-12 (12th being last year) with a 70.06 scoring average. He has finished in the top-10 in seven straight stroke-play tournaments and should do so again this week.
For the second high-priced player pick, I like Hideki Matsuyama ($9,700). His best outing since winning the Phoenix Open back in February was a T-11 at the Masters, his last individual tournament competed in (he finished T-32 at the Zurich Classic). He will not be a popular pick by any means, which is why I think he has a ton of value. His stats are ripe for this event; 74th in DA, 15th in scrambling, T14 in GIR, and 39th in approach. This will be his fourth time competing at THE PLAYERS where's each year finished inside the top-25 and improved his finish each year; 23-17-6.
Middle-Cost Players
Kevin Chappell ($8,500)
I believe he will be a very popular pick. He finished T-7 at The Masters, two weeks later won the Texas Open, and has not played since being cut at the team-event Zurich Classic. Last year he was runner-up at this tournament, and although his stats aren't particularly good for this tournament– the best stat is 64th in approach– sometimes you have to value recent form over metrics.
Adam Scott ($8,400)
In the last five PLAYERS, Scotty hasn't missed a cut and has three top-25's (15-19-38-38-12). He's 44th in GIR and 61st in approach, which isn't so great. His last two outings were the Masters, T-9, and Wells Fargo last week, T-36.
Paul Casey ($8,300)
If you don't like Scott or need to save salary by $100, I highly suggest going with Casey. He finished 23rd here last year, and is in good form; 6th at the Masters, and 12th at the Wells Fargo last week. He ranks 66th in DA, 5th in scrambling, 11th in GIR, and 18th in approaching-the-green. I'm a little nervous he may withdraw as he's done that the previous two times he's played this event, 2012 and 2015.
Matt Kuchar ($7,900)
I have no clue how Kuchar is priced this low. He's a past winner of this tournament, 2012, and finished third last year. Of the nine times he's competed here, he's only been cut twice. He's 45th in driving accuracy and ninth in scrambling, but 90th in GIR, and T110 in approach. The two latter stats don't really worry me because he's such a veteran and can get hot at any time. His last three events; T4 at the Masters, T11 at the RBC Heritage, and T40 at the Texas Open.
Ryan Palmer ($7,600)
In the first seven times competing at THE PLAYERS, Palmer was cut six times and finished 75th the other time. Since then, 2012, he's finished, 5th, 59th, cut, and 23rd. It seems like he's finally figured out how to attach TPC Sawgrass. He's in incredible form as of late; T11 at the RBC Heritage, T6 at the Texas Open. and 4th at the Zurich Classic. He's outside the top 100 in driving accuracy and scrambling, but is 45th in GIR, and eighth in approaching-the-green.
Low-Cost Players
Martin Kaymer ($7,300)
Another player who's price is so so off. He's eight-for-eight on cuts made on the year and is off a T32 finish at the RBC Heritage. He's T8 in driving accuracy and 76th in approach, but in the 100's in scrambling and GIR. Nevertheless, he's an experienced player on this course.
Adam Hadwin ($6,800)
He's only played this tournament twice; cut in 2015 and 39th last year. He's 70th in driving accuracy, 4th in scrambling, 55th in GIR, and 21st in approach. Hadwin won the Valspar Championship in March, finished T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invt'l, T36 at the Masters, T22 at the RBC Heritage, and T72 at the Texas Open. Pretty good form if you ask me.
Graeme McDowell ($6,700)
McDowell has been playing great as of late; T29 at RBC Heritage, T26 at Texas Open, and most recently, T18 at the Wells Fargo last week. In the past eight times playing THE PLAYERS he's finished, 78, 26, 33, cut, cut. 62, 56, and ninth last year. He's seventh in driving accuracy, 58th in scrambling, but in the 100s in GIR and approach.
Best of luck!
