RADIO
Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are in unfamiliar territory. Since Wilson was drafted in 2012, he and Carroll have never logged a losing season together, and missed the playoffs once. But the Seahawks are now 3-7 and are on a path to finish with their worst record in a decade and possibly in last place for the first time since they joined the NFC West in 2002.
From fantasy perspectives, there is the sudden and somewhat unfamiliar urge to reserve Russell Wilson. Fantasy players are starting to become concerned about the production of DK Metcalf. Many don’t even consider starting a Seahawks running back. Seattle has only featured one RB regularly worthy of consistent starting consideration since Marshawn Lynch moved on after the 2015 season. That is Chris Carson, who is now out for the season because of a neck injury.
Can the Seahawks get their season turned around enough to bolster the confidence of fantasy players?
The 2021 Seahawks: How We Arrived Here
This has been an incredibly frustrating and somewhat baffling season in Seattle. The Seahawks won 12 games in 2020 and were expected to at least contend for a playoff spot again. But the issues have persisted to the point where Pete Carroll actually walked out of a press conference for the first time any reporters could recall during his run in Seattle.
Pete Carroll leaving the press conference…
He did return to finish the question pic.twitter.com/Jeuz2jrqMP— Mitty (@MittySeahawks) November 22, 2021
When the Seahawks were an elite team seemingly on the verge of a potential dynasty seven years ago, they had three essential elements that made them a great team. They had an outstanding defense, one of the top RBs in the league, and a very good quarterback. Take any of those factors away and they were not the same team. Those who credit only the defense and running game for their Super Bowl appearances forget that Seattle missed the playoffs at 7-9 the year before Wilson was drafted, with Lynch on the roster and the pieces of the Legion of Boom secondary installed already early in its run.
But by 2016, Lynch was gone, and the LOB was dissolved by 2018. Yet Wilson, who has always been a consistent Top 10 fantasy QB throughout his career, continued to keep Seattle in the postseason hunt. In his career prior to 2021, he has finished as a Top 3 fantasy QB three times, and in the Top 8 six times. In 2017, he was the No. 1 QB in fantasy football. He remained a fantasy QB1 while the team changed around him.
But in 2021, Wilson has missed games for the first time in his career, as he sat out three because of a finger injury, and he has not quite looked like himself in the two games since he has returned. He is averaging 16.5 Fantasy Points Per Game, which ranks 18th at QB. He has scored a total of 15.9 points in his last two games.
Meanwhile, in the post-Lynch era, Carson had consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2018 and 2019, but his injury battles have been well-documented and the Seahawks rank 23rd in rushing. Current starter Alex Collins is just outside the Top 50 overall in total PPR points at RB and is averaging 7.2 points per game.
The offensive struggles have affected the star WRs, as DK Metcalf is WR18 at this point of the season and Tyler Lockett is WR24. Metcalf has scored 12.7 PPR points in his past two games. He has become openly frustrated to the point where Bobby Wagner had to rein him in with some veteran advice.
Longtime Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner told reporters that he sat down with Metcalf and talked with him about keeping his emotions in check. https://t.co/9p1CU9N5rQ
— The Seahawks Wire (@TheSeahawksWire) November 19, 2021
As an NFL team, the Seahawks are well beyond the days of having a dominant defense and running game, and their longtime star QB is experiencing a strange new reality, struggling after missing time. As fantasy players, we are left wondering if Wilson can soon regain more of his familiar form, because a rebound would obviously elevate the outlooks of the WRs, too. But in order for the offense to execute a turnaround, there are other factors at play besides Wilson looking fully recovered from his recent injury.
The Current Concerns
The largest problems that are currently facing the Seahawks and are looming concerns even with Wilson looking fully recovered are their season-long issues in terms of sustaining drives and converting on third downs. The lack of a solid running game and the inability to adjust well enough when defenses take away the deep ball have been persistent issues that have bogged the offense down and affected fantasy results in the process.
The Seahawks rank last in the NFL in average time of possession at 24:44, and they are next to last in third down conversion percentage at 32.41 percent. Wilson has a 35.1 completion percentage on third down, the lowest of all regular NFL starters, and 11 of his 20 sacks have come on third down. On third downs of eight yards or longer, his completion percentage is 48.0.
Seattle is 28th in rushing attempts at 231. Since the midpoint of 2020, opponents have been frequently employing defensive looks designed to take away the deep ball, as Wilson is well recognized as one of the best deep passers in the game. Defenses are often daring the Seahawks to run against them, and Seattle has not regularly taken the bait. According to playerprofiler.com, Collins has faced a light front carry rate of 71.3 percent, which is 11th overall. He has faced base fronts 22.3 percent of the time and stacked fronts just 6.4 percent of the time. Yet he has only rushed more than 10 times in a game twice this season in matchups where he has been the main ball carrier. Collins only has four goal-line carries as one ultimate result of the offensive inconsistency.
The overall combination of adversity has been created by a fusion of factors that most prominently include the lack of a dependable running game, the consistent inability to keep drives moving by flaming out on third downs, and a boom or bust approach to the passing game. Metcalf and Lockett are obviously explosive playmakers, but Seattle needs a trustworthy possession type. In the Seahawks’ past seasons of better all-around play, Doug Baldwin was a highly reliable target in key situations all over the field. His presence has also been missed since he retired after the 2018 season. Seattle may have to focus on finding a quality possession complement to Metcalf and Lockett in the offseason.
The Outlook for the Remainder of the 2021 Season
The rest of the season does not look hopeless at all for improved fantasy production in the Seahawks passing game. Wilson was obviously rusty in his first game back from the injury in Week 10 at Green Bay, but there were some signs of the Wilson we are used to seeing in Week 11 against Arizona.
Russell Wilson finds his guy Tyler Lockett ✅
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 21, 2021
History dictates that Wilson should revert back to being worthy of fantasy QB1 consideration soon, but if you want to keep him reserved until you see actual proof of him regaining his better form, that is understandable. Yet the schedule also eases up enough starting this week. Wilson faces the pass defenses of Washington (28th ranked), San Francisco (23rd in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to QBs), Houston (ranked 26th vs. the pass), Chicago (25th in FFPG allowed to QBs over the last four weeks), and Detroit (23rd in passing yards allowed to QBs) in the weeks ahead.
Pete Carroll said Seahawks have simplified offense lately:'Often simplifying is the way we go to make sure we’re getting enough turns and enough reps at stuff. We have trimmed some things a little bit in the last couple weeks. We’re hoping that we’ll reap the benefits of that.'
— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) November 24, 2021
Carroll said this week that the Seahawks will “simplify” their offense in an effort to achieve more balance and consistency. That could mean leaning on the running game more, as having a strong ground game has always appealed to Carroll. A respectable rushing attack leads to Wilson using play-action passing more effectively, and he is one of the best in the game off play-action. A truly “simple” approach to finding success again would be to run the ball adequately, which will make the passing game less predictable and productive.
Establishing a better offense is easier to talk about in concept, though, and it must be executed. For now, keep Wilson reserved in any tight lineup decisions involving him, keep Collins reserved while you monitor his workload, and also add DeeJay Dallas. He may get more involved in the offense with Rashaad Penny out again and the Seahawks possibly needing two RBs to boost the production at the position. Maintain fantasy faith in Metcalf and Lockett as starters, as the schedule, intended offensive adjustments, and Wilson moving further away from his recent injury should lead to good production from the Seattle passing game for your fantasy playoff push.
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