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2016 Third Base Prospects And Dynasty Rankings

We've taken a look at first base, second base, and shortstop dynasty prospects. Now it's time to move on to third base.

The position isn't terribly deep at the moment, but that's because Kris Bryant and Miguel Sano have reached the majors. The other top third base prospects either have a serious flaw or they are far from the majors. Often, shortstop prospects will eventually move down the defensive spectrum to third base - think guys like Corey Seager.  As always, if you feel like I missed somebody, call me out on Twitter @BaseballATeam.

Don't forget to read all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings columns. There's lots of great rankings analysis including redraft, dynasty/keeper, prospects and positional tiers.

The statistics reported are for the listed level only.

 

Third Base Dynasty Rankings

1. Joey Gallo (3B, TEX, MLB)
Stats: 123 PA, .204/.301/.417, 6 HR, 3 SB, 46.3% K rate, 12.2% BB rate
Age 22

An injury to Adrian Beltre led to an early taste of the majors for Gallo. The future three true outcomes scion was overmatched in the majors and at Triple-A. However, he hit well at Double-A with a scary .314/.425/.636 line. He'll return to Triple-A to start 2016.

Gallo is a risky type of prospect. The bust risk is just so high on a guy like this. The best case scenarios probably look like Pedro Alvarez or Chris Carter. Reach back in time, I see a lot in common with Russell Branyan. He had a solid 14 year career, but his whifftastic ways led to just 12 career WAR. He was usually a bench or platoon bat.

The Rangers will continue to hope for an epiphany from Gallo. If he can keep the strikeout rate even halfway under control, he'll be a valuable prospect. His homer happy profile makes him a better fantasy than real world asset.

 

2. Rafael Devers (3B, BOS, A)
Stats: 469 PA, .288/.329/.443, 11 HR, 3 SB, 16.5% K rate, 4.7% BB rate
Age 19

In many ways, I would prefer to own Devers over Gallo in a dynasty league. The risk involved is still fairly large due to his distance from the majors. An international signee, Devers has an advanced feel at the plate. Some scouts worry about his build. They wonder if he'll stick at third base. He may even slow down so much that he losses his prospect status.

After a successful 2015 campaign, I'm less concerned about him adjusting to professional baseball. The next step is to see him tap into more in-game power. His 11 home runs are fine for a player of his age. Excitingly, he hit 38 doubles and a triple in 508 plate appearances. As he matures, some of those doubles will leave the yard.

Aggression is a weakness. Thankfully, his swing is geared towards going with the pitch. That will make it harder for big league pitchers to find an exploitable hole in his game. I foresee him being an aggressive, middle-of-the-order power threat with 25 home runs annually. His statistical profile is reminiscent of Yoenis Cespedes.

 

3. D.J. Peterson (3B, SEA, AA)
Stats: 393 PA, .223/.290/.346, 7 HR, 5 SB, 22.9% K rate, 7.9% BB rate
Age 24

Peterson is a divisive prospect. Like many internet writers, I'm forced to lean heavily on statistics and second-hand scouting reports. His 2015 numbers don't read like any sort of prospect. After popping 31 home runs in 2014, he's hit just nine bombs this year. Two of those have come in the Arizona Fall League.

The soon-to-be 24-year-old is expected to eventually land at first base. He could still spend his first few seasons at the hot corner before swinging across the diamond. A former 12th overall pick, Peterson needs to rebound from his lost 2015 campaign. He's a solid buy low target at the moment. His upside still includes 30 home runs with a solid batting average. There's real risk that he never does anything in the majors.

 

4. Ryan McMahon (3B, COL, A+)
Stats: 556 PA, .300/.372/.520, 18 HR, 6 SB, 27.5% K rate, 8.8% BB rate
Age 21

McMahon was the 42nd pick in the 2013 draft. Rockies position players always come with helium, so it's not a bad time to jump on the McMahon bandwagon. He's popped 18 home runs in two consecutive seasons. A .401 BABIP artificially inflated his .300/.372/.520 slash. Remember, high BABIPs in the minors can indicate luck or mastery of a level. They rarely translate to the majors.

Power is his calling card, but scouts aren't positive he'll hit in the upper levels. He's clearly feasting on mistakes in the lower minors. His 27.5 percent strikeout rate against inferior competition is cause for concern. He's be challenged as one of the youngest players in Double-A next season. It should be informative.

McMahon has plenty of talent, but he'll still need to tighten up his plate approach. You may recall the Rockies have a stud at third base - Nolan Arenado. McMahon's future with the club likely depends on extension talks with Arenado. If the Rockies do manage to lock him up long term, McMahon will probably be used as a trade chip.

 

5. Rio Ruiz (3B, ATL, AA)
Stats: 420 PA, .233/.333/.324, 5 HR, 2 SB, 19.2% K rate, 12.9% BB rate
Age 21

When the Astros signed Carlos Correa for less than slot value, it allowed them to ink Lance McCullers and Ruiz. Houston dealt Ruiz to the Braves as part of the Evan Gattis trade. He immediately slotted in as one of the top prospects in Atlanta's system behind Ozhaino Albies.

Ruiz had some difficulty in his first try at Double-A, but he was young for the level. How he performs next season will be telling. Unlike most of the others on this list, Ruiz features strong plate discipline with solid contact rates. Unfortunately, his power still needs to develop as evidenced by his .090 ISO. Speed will never be part of his game - in fact he's a candidate to swipe zero bases by the time he reaches the majors.

There are some questions about his defense. He reportedly has a strong work ethic and has focused on improving at the hot corner. If he can't stick there long-term, he doesn't have enough bat to work as a first base prospect. For now, he looks like a high risk, high reward buy-low candidate for dynasty owners.

 

6. Eric Jagielo (3B, NYY, AA)
Stats: 248 PA, .284/.347/.495, 9 HR, 23.4% K rate, 7.3% BB rate
Age 23

In his first exposure to Double-A, Jagielo was hitting well until a knee injury ended his season. He's expected to make a full recovery, but it won't help his already negligible speed. Like several other third base prospects, there is doubt that he'll stick at the position long-term.

Jagielo, a left-handed hitter, does have enough power to work as a first base prospect. The big question is how far his contact skills will develop. Presently, he's holding his own in the minors. Triple-A is often viewed as a big test for power prospects like Jagielo. Because he can feast on mistakes, it can inflate his power numbers in the lower minors.

Since he missed most of 2015, he'll likely open the season in Double-A. If he continues to thrive, he'll quickly join the Triple-A squad. An injury to Chase Headley could even induce a promotion to the majors. He looks like a .230 to .250 hitter with 20 to 30 home run power. He should also benefit from Yankee Stadium's short right field porch.

 

7. Travis Shaw (3B, BOS, MLB)
Stats: 248 PA, .274/.331/.491, 13 HR, 23.0% K rate, 7.3% BB rate
Age 25

I debated Shaw's eligibility for this list. I decided his owners probably still view him as a prospect since he's well and thoroughly blocked in Boston. Barring a trade, either of another veteran or Shaw himself, he'll open the season in the minors.

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Scouts have long viewed Shaw as a fringy starter - the kind of guy who fits better in Oakland than Boston. It's tempting to see his 13 home runs in 248 plate appearances and project a 30 home run ceiling. Unfortunately, scouts are confident he's more of a 10 to 20 home run guy.

Shaw teased a pull-happy approach and thrived at Fenway Park. On the road, he hit a miserable .224/.294/.383. At home, a .345 BABIP helped him to a .319/.364/.588 line. He also possessed reverse handedness splits. He hit much better against fellow lefties. Overall, his splits look incredibly fluky. Expect regression.

The best case scenario for Shaw involves a trade to a second division club. He could provide decent fantasy value for a team like the Brewers.

 

Names To Watch

Most of these players should catch a cup of coffee in the majors. Some of them will be fantasy building blocks with 20 home run power, good speed, or a solid average. Unfortunately, determining which will breakout and which will become bench fodder is a difficult exercise.

Renato Nunez (3B, OAK, AA)

Nunez, 21, has impressed with his bat while sprinting through the minors. He spent the entirety of his season at Double-A, and the A's also handed him a spot in the Arizona Fall League. To date, he's hit a combined 22 home runs in 473 plate appearances. Power is his game. Scouts worry about his defense.

Colon Moran (3B, HOU, AA)

Moran is a polarizing prospect. His talent has always been highly regarded, but I've seen a lot of comments questioning his work ethic. The Marlins sold low as part of the Jarred Cosart deal. Moran, 23, hit .306/.381/.459 in 417 Double-A plate appearances. It would be nice to see more power.

Jeimer Candelario (3B, CHC, AA)

Candelario split his season between High-A and Double-A. He's also in the Arizona Fall League. He profiles as a pesky hitter with a high contact rate and average. He possesses adequate power, but he doesn't access it with regularity in games. Still, 13 home runs over 569 plate appearances isn't bad for a soon-to-be 22-year-old.

Brandon Drury (3B, ARI, AAA)

Drury is similar to Candelario, but he's also a year older. He received 59 mostly unsuccessful plate appearances in the majors. His power numbers declined drastically (26 HR in 2014, 7 HR in 2015), and he leaned heavily on a high BABIP in Triple-A. He could platoon with Jake Lamb.

Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT, A-)

Hayes was selected 32nd overall in the 2015 amateur draft. The 18-year-old hit well in short-season ball without showing a lick of power (six extra base hits, no HR in 227 PA). He's a long way from the majors.

Tyler Nevin (3B, COL, R)

Another 18-year-old draft selection, Nevin was selected 38th overall. He hit .265/.368/.386 over 223 plate appearances. Rockies hitting prospects always possess a little extra bonus value.

Austin Riley (3B, ATL, R)

In many ways, Riley was the best of the 18-year-old draftees. Taken 41st overall, he popped 12 home runs in 252 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he also showed off a high strikeout rate. The power is real, but he might not make enough contact.

Jomar Reyes (3B, BAL, A-)

Reyes is also 18, but he was signed as an international free agent in 2014. The 6'6'' behemoth is expected to eventually wind up at first base. Scouts love his mechanics and consistency at the plate. However, he's yet to tap into game power.

Hunter Dozier (3B, KAN, AA)

Dozier was selected eighth overall in the 2013 draft. The 24-year-old still has plenty of time to make good on his promise, but I view him mainly as a utility man. He has too much swing-and-miss in his bat with insufficient power to make up for it.

J.D. Davis (3B, HOU, A+)

The Astros development team does impressive work. Davis, 22, is coming a 26 home run season. He hit .289/.370/.520 with a high 28 percent strikeout rate. He's an underhyped prospect who could fly way under the radar.

Jae-gyun Hwang (3B, KBO)

Hwang was a candidate to be posted this winter, but his club has opted to post Ah-Seop Son instead. Korean teams are allowed to post just one player per season. Hwang will probably jump to the majors next offseason when he's a free agent.

Patrick Kivlehan (3B, SEA, AAA)

Another relatively unheralded prospect, Kivlehan hit 22 home runs with 14 stolen bases in 518 Triple-A plate appearances. He's nearly 26 years old, but that could help to keep him off the prospect radar. Kyle Seager blocks him, but the Mariners have other offensive needs too.

Garin Cecchini (3B, BOS, AAA)

Cecchini, 24, was a relatively well-regarded prospect entering 2015. Despite a second short stint in the majors, he took a big step back developmentally. His .213/.286/.296 line in 469 Triple-A plate appearances ensures he's buried on the Boston depth chart. He could still recover and improve.

 

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