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You always want to buy low in fantasy football, and one of the best ways to buy low with a high ceiling in a range of outcomes is to target star players coming off of disappointing seasons. Fantasy football owners tend to rank players coming off below-average or subpar seasons lower on their cheat sheets than they should. Fantasy owners sometimes have shorter memories than Drew Barrymore in the American Classic- 50 First Dates. Do not make the same mistake. It is imperative to realize why certain players struggled in the previous season, and determine if these players have what it takes to turn things around in 2016.
Fantasy owners know Andrew Luck will return to form after a disastrous 2015. He is easily the biggest bounce-back candidate in fantasy football heading into 2016. However, I am going to focus on three other studs from years past who are are being undervalued and should be ready to rebound after 2015 seasons that made their fantasy owners reach for the antacids. ADP data is provided Fantasy Football Calculator.
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2016 Fantasy Football Draft Values
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (QB) ADP: QB24 14.06 Overall
After not missing a game in his first seven seasons, Flacco finally got stung by the injury bug, missing the final 10 games of the 2015 campaign with a knee injury. Even when Flacco was healthy in 2015, he was not doing fantasy owners any favors. While his 279 passing yards per game were a career-high, his 14-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio was a steep decline compared to the career-best numbers he posted the year prior when he threw for a personal best 3,986 yards and 27 touchdowns.
Flacco should be ready to go at the start of the season and he will have a healthier corps of targets around him than he did last season. Top tailback Justin Forsett expects to be back at 100 percent, Steve Smith has staved off retirement for another year and former first-rounder Breshad Perriman will hopefully stay healthy for at least a game or two after numerous knee problems. Add in newly-acquired veterans Benjamin Watson and Mike Wallace and couple them with the improving Kamar Aiken, and Flacco will have more targets to aim at than if he was at a skeet shooting competition.
In an age where every starting quarterback seemingly throws for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, Flacco has done neither. But with a rebuilt offensive line protecting him and a vast array of pass catchers helping him, I would bet on Flacco breaking those barriers for the first time in 2016 and being a great value at his current ADP for late round quarterback drafters.
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (RB) ADP: RB9 2.06 Overall
Eddie Lacy went from being a battering ram to a lumbering log roller in 2015. You did not need to be a dietitian to know he was overweight. His feet were slow, he failed to break big runs and he was not able to avoid tacklers as well as he did during his first two seasons. After consecutive 1,100-yard years with 20 total rushing touchdowns to start his career, Lacy plummeted like a bad stock totaling only 758 rushing yards and three scores in 2015.
Lacy lost weight in the offseason thanks to using the well-known P90X system (I’m a treadmill guy myself), so shedding some extra ounces should help him shed some defenders this season --- if he keeps the weight off. And with only the usually mediocre James Starks battling him in the backfield for carries as well as targets, Lacy should have no trouble regaining his starting spot and getting 15-20 touches per week.
There is no reason Lacy cannot bounce back to his 2015 form. As long as he keeps his White Castle visits to a minimum and his workouts to a maximum, he should be able to benefit from all of the scoring opportunities Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers offense affords him, making him a bargain at his discounted ADP compared to his 1st round price in 2015.
Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (TE) ADP: TE10 9.02 Overall
Thomas had to prove to his doubters and detractors last year that he was not a product of Peyton Manning’s pinpoint passing and having Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders taking all the defenses’ double teams, so Thomas could consistently see single coverage when he was with the Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, the doubters and detractors weren't proven wrong in Thomas' debut season with the Jaguars.
After back-to-back 12-TD seasons where he was more comfortable in the end zone than Jon Gruden is with a chalkboard, Thomas only scored five touchdowns and managed a meager 9.9 yards per catch. In years past, blame would be placed on the Jacksonville quarterback, but you can’t blame Blake Bortles who connected with Allen Robinson and company for 35 touchdowns in his sophomore season in the NFL.
Another year in Jacksonville’s offense and another year building chemistry with Bortles will certainly help Thomas rebound. Staying healthy and getting off to a good start are two more necessities since he missed the first four games of last season due to a finger injury and was swimming upstream all season long after returning. Thomas has too much talent and has too much talent around him to be held down again. Look for him to snag 9-12 touchdown tosses from Bortles in 2016.
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