Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 11

The countdown to Thursday is on and this week we have a spectacular matchup. Since last week was very underwhelming for fantasy, this game couldn’t come at a better time. So far in the TNF breakdowns, I have covered games involving Brett Rypien, Nick Mullens, and Joe Flacco - I can’t tell you how excited I am to outline what could be the matchup of the year. 

Last time we saw these two teams meet we witnessed a 71 point, overtime barn burner that resulted in Arizona putting an end to the undefeated streak of the 5-0 Seahawks. Thankfully, the NFL is blessing us with the rematch to start week 11. These are two offenses that are top three in yards per game and the top seven in points scored per game. Not only are they offensive powerhouses, but these teams like to give up points. Seattle is currently averaging the most yards against per game while Arizona has given up the most fantasy points to the receiver position over the last month. 

Not only do the stars align for fantasy production, but this should be an excellent football game. Sitting at 6-3, both teams have the potential to head into the weekend atop the division. Will Seattle prevail and split the season series between the teams? Or will we see more “Murray Magic”? I am absolutely delighted to bring to you this week’s Thursday night matchup analysis. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 PM ET

Notable Injuries

• Budda Baker (S, ARZ) - Groin - Expected
• Kenyan Drake (RB, ARZ) - Ankle - Expected
• Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, ARZ) - Hamstring - Expected
• De’Vondre Campbell (ILB, ARZ) - Calf - Questionable
• Jordan Phillips (DE, ARZ) - Hamstring - Out
• Chris Carson (RB, SEA) - Foot - Out
• Carlos Hyde (RB, SEA) - Hamstring - Questionable
• Travis Homer (RB, SEA) - Knee/Thumb - Doubtful
• Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA) - Knee - Questionable
• Freddie Swain (WR, SEA) - Foot - Questionable
• Greg Olsen (TE, SEA) - Foot - Expected
• KJ Wright (LB, SEA) - Ankle - Questionable
• Shaquil Griffin (CB, SEA) - Hamstring - Out
• Quinton Dunbar (CB, SEA) - Knee - Out
• Jamal Adams (SS, SEA) - Shoulder - Expected

Must Starts

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA): To modify a quote from my favorite receiver, there are three things in life that are certain: death, taxes, and Russel Wilson will be a top NFL QB. Chef Wilson has been cooking up a storm for the past few years in fantasy, and this season Pete Caroll has given him free rein in the kitchen. A sentence we all wanted to hear for years has finally come to fruition: Russell Wilson is cooking. Here are the ingredients to the Chef Wilson Special: second in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns (28), fifth in rushing yards at the position, and sixth in passing attempts. Clearly, with these ingredients, the options are (in the words of Russell Wilson) “unlimited”.

The only downside to this meal is that Arizona’s defense is also better than people think, sitting middle of the pack in both rushing and passing yards allowed. Plus, the Seahawks have appeared to be in a little bit of a slump coming off back-to-back losses. However, you know what this meal needs? A divisional, primetime game at CenturyLink Field and that is exactly what we get this Thursday. 

Kyler Murray (QB, ARZ): Wow. Every year there is a QB that is kilometers ahead of any other for fantasy purposes. In 2018 it was Patrick Mahomes, in 2019 we had Lamar Jackson, and this year it’s Kyler Murray. Currently the QB-one by 20 fantasy points, KM has been destroying defenses through the air and on the ground. Murray is sitting with the most rushing yards at the position, which is 80 yards ahead of Lamar Jackson. If you were to only take his rushing production, he would be the RB-11 on the season.

While Murray is only 13th in passing yards, he sits in elite company for total touchdowns at the position. With 27 touchdowns on the year, he is tied with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes for second in the league, behind only Russell Wilson (29). Through the first 10 weeks, Murray is on pace for 48 total touchdowns and over 5,000 total yards. To put the cherry on top, Kyler Murray has 29 MORE fantasy points than Lamar Jackson’s first ten weeks during his MVP season. It’s the best QB in fantasy, going against the team allowing the most yards per game - you couldn’t ask for a better play.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARZ): “Stefon Diggs has been the best receiver in football this season,” said the commentator after Stefon Diggs scored the go-ahead touchdown last week. Well, someone must have told Nuk Hopkins about that because he clearly had something to say when he brought down the greatest Hail Mary since Richard Rodgers in 2015.

Not only is Hopkins a phenomenal player, but he is also getting the necessary usage to be a top fantasy asset. This season he is third in targets at the position (averaging 9.8 a game), and second in receiving yards with 861. Coming into week 11 with the fifth-most fantasy points at the position, Hopkins gets to face a defense that is bleeding fantasy points to WRs. I’ll need more than a paragraph to go through all the reasons why Hopkins should be the WR-one on the week, but unfortunately, a paragraph is all I have. Sit back and enjoy one of the league's best put on a clinic this Thursday. I almost forgot I’m calling for the Pie Shop to be open for Nuk as well. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA): What a season it has been for the second-year receiver. Metcalf has bellied up to the Chef’s table and is continuing his fantasy feast. Sitting with the fourth-most fantasy points on the season, Metcalf hasn’t been anything but spectacular. Not only is he near the top of the league in fantasy points, but he is also sitting third at the position in fantasy points per game, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Incredible. However, I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried about this matchup. This season, there have been two bad games from Metcalf and it’s no coincidence that they came in matchups with elite shadow cornerbacks.

In Metcalf’s two games against Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey, he has combined for four catches and 51 yards. Yikes. I have a Twitter thread displaying his other tough corner matchups if you want to check it out (@YoitsEllis_FF). In summary, I am questioning Metcalf’s ability to overcome elite coverage this season, and I think this week will decide my verdict. Thankfully, he is still young and can easily grow regardless of what happens on Thursday. Either way, he is another WR-one that will be playing in this matchup.

Chris Carson (RB, SEA): Chris Carson is finally healthy to return and the team desperately needs it. Bringing back Irish Dancer Alex Collins and relying on the unproven legs of Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas has not boded well for the Seahawks. I am not saying that this is a direct result of Carson, but the team’s three losses have come in the four games Carson missed or was injured in. The fan-favorite 7th round running back is essential to this team's success, and this Thursday is a huge game. Arizona is averaging the 16th most rushing yards per game, and have only allowed two touchdowns in their last four games to the position.

Quietly the Cardinals have been solid against the running back. However, in the first five games, Carson managed the fifth-most fantasy points at the position and should take advantage of any non-elite defense. Carson will be looking to keep the ball out of Murray’s hands, as well as keep their own defense off the field. I have a feeling the Pie Shop is open for him as well and he’s a top-10-play this week in all formats. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

UPDATE: Chris Carson has officially been ruled out for this week.

Zane Gonzalez (K, ARZ): Only the second kicker to make an appearance in this segment, I’m expecting a huge day from the fourth year’s leg. Going into this season I crowned Gonzalez as my “Breakout Kicker” for 2020 and so far I have been very underwhelmed as he is currently the K-14. However, he is coming off of a perfect performance, hitting all four of his field goals and both his extra-point attempts. I think he carries this confidence into Thursday night in a game against Seattle’s non-existent defense. Plus, these divisional matchups are gold for kickers. I have the confidence that Pete Caroll won’t let Arizona find the pay dirt on every drive, paving the way for multiple field goals and extra points. You’ll want to start Gonzalez this week. 

Solid Options

Kenyan Drake (RB, ARZ): This backfield has been very underwhelming for fantasy purposes. I put most of the blame for the running back’s lack of fantasy success on Kyler Murray, who has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Regardless, this is a fast pace offense that likes to get both backs involved. Last week we saw Drake come back from injury and average 6.3 yards per carry for 100 yards on the ground. Drake has been frustrating for fantasy this season, however, he is currently eighth in rushing attempts and seventh in rushing yards, meaning he is getting the workload needed for fantasy production.

Although Seattle is allowing the fourth-least rushing yards per game, we have seen Drake explode against this defense. Remember Week 16 last year in Seattle where he went for 166 rushing yards and two touchdowns? That performance won many fantasy managers championships. A high-scoring affair with his workload should make him a solid RB-two this week. 

Chase Edmonds (RB, ARZ): Both Arizona backs make this segment this week. After a disappointing performance without Drake in week nine, Edmonds has reclaimed his passing down work. Last week, Edmonds had 8 carries for 56 yards and caught all three of his targets for 21 yards. For a reason that is unclear to fantasy owners, Drake is not being involved in the passing game which has left Edmonds as a solid flex player in any PPR format. He should continue this production in week 11. Plus when you’re going against the Seahawks, there is always the threat the Cardinals will be down early which could increase his usage. 

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA): Adding to my D.K Metcalf analysis, Lockett is the clear beneficiary when Metcalf does in fact get shut down. Last game against Arizona, Lockett had 200 receiving yards and three touchdowns, leading to the top fantasy performance by a WR this year. Obviously, this would be absurd if he could repeat this success, but Lockett has been getting the targets to have a solid fantasy day regardless. For what has been a very “boom-bust” season for the veteran receiver, he has managed to have the ninth most targets at the position. This type of involvement, mixed with the defense focusing on Metcalf, should make for a high-end WR-two performance this Thursday.

Christian Kirk (WR, SEA): Fun fact: Christian Kirk has six receiving touchdowns on the year. This is tied for eighth in the league with Will Fuller and A.J Brown. Five of these touchdowns have come in his last four games, including two in their last game against the Seahawks. The best part of these touchdowns is that they have come from both the red zone and deep balls. Kirk has quietly been the WR-32 this year and has one game in his last five with less than four receptions. If you’re getting at least four receptions against the Seattle defense, you immediately enter flex/WR-three territory. He is a solid option in this week’s matchup. 

Consider Sitting

David Moore (WR, SEA), and Andy Isabella (WR, ARZ): The definition of upside plays with no floor. I stand by my favorite saying: you can’t win your week on Thursday but you can definitely lose it. Isabella has only one game with more than two receptions, and Moore has only had more than three targets once this year. Don’t be surprised if either of these players finds the endzone, but you can not play them in fantasy. 

You know it’s a good matchup when there aren’t any other “Sits”. Larry Fitzgerald could be a possible full PPR flyer as the last matchup between these teams he brought in 8 catches for 62 yards. However, as for Greg Olsen and Dan Arnold, they should both be benched if not dropped in your leagues. 

Not only am I projecting a fantastic game, but Vegas clearly is as well. With a 58.5 point over-under and only a three-point spread, this game should have it all. In what is basically a toss-up I’m putting my faith in Pete Carroll slowing down both teams by keeping the ball on the ground and figuring out something on the defensive side of the ball. However, Arizona is carrying all the momentum going into Thursday making my game picks: ARZ + 3.0 (4-6), Under 58.5 (3-7)

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