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The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off a special edition of the Thursday Night prop picks as we’re grabbing one game from each of Thursday’s games in Week 12 between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys, and the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears: More or Less Contest
- Darnell Mooney MORE than 63.5 receiving yards
- D'Andre Swift LESS than 60.5 rushing yards
We have a few different factors working in our favor in terms of having a good day for Bears’ wideout Darnell Mooney. For one, the game is taking place indoors at Ford Field, so he won’t be contending with any weather issues. For two, teammate Allen Robinson (hamstring) didn’t practice on Tuesday, and that would leave Mooney far and away as the primary receiving option in this offense. Mooney has hit this number just three times this season, but he continues to see a high volume of targets with 25 more than any other pass catcher on the team. Against a team that ranks 28th by DVOA against the pass, Mooney should have a solid shot at hitting this mark.
Lions’ running back D’Andre Swift has smashed through this mark in each of the last two weeks to the tune of 266 yards over his last two games. This week, we’re going for the less than mark. Prior to the team’s Week 10 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Swift’s season-high in rushing yards was just 51 yards. The team hasn’t been using him as a traditional bellcow back. Instead, they’ve been using him out of the backfield as a receiver more to get him the ball in space. This Bears’ front is hurt up front, but they still have the defenders to give this Lions’ front trouble and slow Swift down on the ground.
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Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders: More or Less Contest
- Ezekiel Elliott MORE than 65.5 rushing yards
- Darren Waller MORE than 69.5 receiving yards
This is another situation where we have two different props that are actually working in tandem to make them come true. With wide receivers Amari Cooper (covid) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion) in doubt to play, the Cowboys will likely have to run the ball more. While Tony Pollard will see his fair share of touches, Ezekiel Elliott will remain the leading man in this backfield. He hasn’t hit this mark since Week 6 against the New England Patriots, but the Raiders rank 15th against the run, and left tackle Tyron Smith should finally be back from his ankle injury after being a full participant in practice. If Dallas is able to get an early lead or at least keep the game close, this mark is in reach for Zeke.
Waller has seen seven or more targets in all but one game this season, and he’s the team’s primary source of offense through the air. Since scoring 26 or more points in each of their first three games, the team has stumbled a bit. They put up a combined 67 points in two games prior to the bye week, but they haven’t scored more than 16 since then. If they’re going to keep up with this Dallas offense, they’ll need to throw the ball. When they’re throwing, Waller is the man getting the ball, and he should have a matchup advantage against these Dallas safeties.
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New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills: More or Less Contest
- Josh Allen MORE than 25.5 passing completions
- Trevor Siemian LESS than 19.5 passing completions
Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen has 20 or more completions in all but two games this season, with those two games being blowout wins earlier in the season. They have no ability to consistently run the ball, and this Saints’ defense, which ranks number one against the run by DVOA, won’t make that any easier. This Saints’ defense is going to throw weird looks at Allen, and they will be able to keep the game close which should keep him on the field longer and throwing the ball consistently.
Last week was just the third time this season the Bills had allowed over 100 yards on the ground to an opponent. They still rank 12th against the run, and the Saints are expected to be without Alvin Kamara (ankle) again this week. In four games this season, Siemian has gone for less than this mark in two of his four games, and he’s now facing off with the best passing defense in the NFL. His two games under 19.5 completions both came against teams in the top half of the league against the pass with the two overs being against bottom half defenses. The Bills can’t get after Siemian and slow him down. Plus, with lackluster receiving weapons, this secondary has a huge matchup advantage.
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