RADIO
Suddenly we are into the 10th week of the season. Week 9 gave us some incredible NFL games along with some incredible individual team performances. Thankfully, this also turned into some amazing fantasy performances (Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees to name a few). The season is setting itself up for a great finish with multiple fantasy pieces on teams fighting for playoff spots.
Please excuse this next part but I feel I need to mention my article last week. Last Thursday, we witnessed outstanding fantasy performances from Davante Adams, Richie James Jr., Aaron Rodgers, and… Marquez Valdes-Scantling! I hope you stuck with me and started MVS as he posted 53 yards and two scores, finishing as the WR-14 on the week.
This Thursday, we have two quality teams going against each other. The defensive juggernaut Colts are traveling to Nashville to take on the well rounded Titans. Starts, sits, and game picks, it’s time for your RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET
Notable Injuries
Mo Alie-Cox (TE, IND) - Knee - Questionable
Jack Doyle (TE, IND) - Concussion - Out
T.Y Hilton (WR, IND) - Groin - Questionable
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN) - Knee - Expected
Jadeveon Clowney (DE/LB, TEN) - Knee - Expected
Adam Humphries (WR, TEN) - Concussion - Doubtful
Must-Starts
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN): AJ Brown is an incredible receiver. After all the efficiency questions of last offseason, Brown has come out and continued to look dominant. The second-year receiver is currently tied for fifth in fantasy points per game (Half PPR), and is averaging 76 yards and a touchdown a game. The Colts are one of the best defenses in the league, but so are the Bears, and Brown just torched the latter for over 100 yards and a touchdown.
Before last week, the Bears had only allowed one 100+ yard receiving game and that was to Calvin Ridley in week three. AJ Brown is matchup proof, and the entire passing game for this team runs through Brown. Last week, he caught 40% of the team’s total receptions and accounted for 50% of the team’s targets. While the percentages were largely due to the game script, Brown has shown all season that he is clearly Tannehill’s first option when looking down the field. You have to start Brown as a WR-one even in this tough matchup. In my opinion, it’s time dynasty managers start discussing Brown in the same conversation as DK Metcalf.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN): After an underwhelming fantasy game, Henry will look to rebound against the third-best rushing defense in the league that is only allowing an average of 83.6 rushing yards per game. Thankfully, even without any passing work, Henry is game script proof. The team is committed to running the offense through the 247-pound back. It is interesting to note that in the two games Henry has played against top 16 rushing defenses (based on opponent yards per game) Henry has not cracked 75 yards. This is a very small sample size and can easily change this week. You’re playing Henry with confidence this week, but you may want to keep this in mind and look for upside from your depth positions.
Solid Options
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN): Tannehill has quietly been one of the most steady quarterbacks for fantasy this year. Although he only has three games over 20 fantasy points, he only has one week below 14 points. This week, Tannehill faces the Colts, who give up the third least passing yards per game. Thankfully, in Tannehill’s two games against top-eight passing defenses (Pittsburgh and Chicago) he has still managed to score 17 and 14 points respectively. Although his ceiling in good matchups has been disappointing, Tannehill will not lose your fantasy week. He is a solid QB-two in two-quarterback leagues and should be in line for another top 20 fantasy finish this week.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN): Maybe Corey Davis is not that bad. Yes, Davis did goose-egg last week, however, we saw that there were only 10 completions for the team in the whole game. Before last week, Davis had yet to score less than 9 fantasy points in a game. The best part is that he has been performing in both yards and touchdowns. Davis was able to take advantage of Brown being injured to start the year and has remained relevant in light of AJB’s return. Davis has established himself as the second option in the receiving game at the expense of Jonnu Smith (which we will talk about later). Either way, with the defense focusing on AJB, Davis has a path to a very fantasy-relevant week. He is a solid WR-three with a 10 point fantasy floor, and I have a gut feeling he opens the Pie Shop* this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Zach Pascal (WR, IND): If T.Y Hilton is to miss another week, these two receivers could be worthy of a start in deep leagues. Since we expect Tennessee’s offense to put up points, even against a tough defense, there should be some volume in the Colts pass offense. Last week we saw both these receivers heavily involved in the Colts abysmal passing game. After cracking 50 yards each against a tough Baltimore defense, the receivers should be more productive against a Titans’ team that is currently giving up 27th most passing yards.
I’m not calling for a massive game from either receiver, however, if you need a deep flex play with a solid floor, you might be able to find it in this matchup. Of the two, I would heavily prefer the veteran Pascal, as he is leading the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns at the position. However, you could do worse than taking a flyer on the rookie Pittman.
Trey Burton (TE, IND): After posting one reception for six yards last week, Burton makes his first-ever appearance as a solid option. Seriously, he deserves to be here if both Mo Alie-Cox (ankle) and Jack Doyle (Concussion) don’t play.In each of the last four games, Philip Rivers has thrown over 50 yards to the tight end position. As a last resort, Burton could be a functional filler at the position this week if both other options miss.
Consider Sitting
Philip Rivers (QB, IND): This “sit” isn’t just for fantasy, it’s a disclaimer to the Colts organization. Rivers have been bad, like really bad. Last week he was able to produce 106 passing yards in the second half while being down to the Ravens. Of these 106 yards, all but one was in the fourth quarter. Thankfully, the Colts Defense has carried him to a very respectable record of 5-3. However, if you are playing Rivers in fantasy there is no way your record is as good as the Colts. Rivers is currently tied for the fifth-most interceptions in the league and has only two games over 20 fantasy points.
Outside of these two games, 75% of his games have been below 15 fantasy points, and 25% have been below eight fantasy points. Thankfully the Titans are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game, making Rivers a viable option in a pinch. However, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you can’t win your week on Thursday but you can lose it. If Rivers posts one of his sub-15 point weeks it will be tough to overcome. I would look elsewhere if possible.
Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, Nyhiem Hines (RB, IND): It pains me to place Jonathan Taylor in this section, but he deserves it. Taylor is averaging 3.9 yards per carry with what was touted as the best offensive line in the league heading into the season. To make matters worse, his touches have been decreasing each week and his fumble last week led to a Ravens scoop-and-score.
As a result of Taylor being wildly mediocre (and a potential minor ankle injury), Wilkins has seen an increased role over the last two weeks posting double-digit attempts in each. Hines had a monster week two weeks ago, however, outside of that and Week 1, he has been below 8.5 fantasy points each week. Thankfully, Hines’ passing work has been steady when they trail in games making him a desperate flex player in full PPR formats. Outside of that, these backs are a mess and I would avoid all of them.
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN): What a disappointing last few weeks it has been for Smith. After starting the season as a top-three tight end, Jonnu Smith crashed back to earth with the return of AJ Brown. What surprised most was that while Smith disappeared, Corey Davis managed to maintain his usage. As a result, Smith hasn’t had more than two receptions since week five. Even after catching a touchdown last week, you can not trust Smith for fantasy and I would look to sell him before Thursday’s matchup.
The Colts and the Bears have one thing in common, bad offenses being carried by elite defenses. Coming off a dominant win against the Bears last week, Tennessee has shown to be a well-rounded team capable of winning tough games. Thankfully, even Rivers will be able to put up points on Tennessee's defense. As a result, here are my picks for this week:
Titans -1.5 ? (4-5), Over 49.0 (2-7)
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