RADIO
Welcome back to another article in our fantasy football ADP draft risers and fallers – today we'll be looking at tight end risers. I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three risers at tight end.
Tight End Fantasy Football ADP Risers
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
The Jets' first preseason game couldn't have gone worse. Of course, they defeated the Philadelphia Eagles, but the price they paid amounted to losing Zach Wilson to injury while also enjoying a second-unit show instead of witnessing the crop of first-string players putting in the proper work.
Those groups included TE1 C.J. Uzomah (one target... not a catch), and TE2 Tyler Conklin (four targets, three catches, 23 yards).
I'm the first one to not believe a thing coming off preseason games, training camps, practices, etc... but a couple of things should be clear by now and that is that 1) the Jets are going to use a committee at tight end for most of the season barring injuries, and 2) that Uzomah will get you the TD points while Conklin will be the steadier FP producer thanks to his better all-around game and target magnetism.
Whether that's the reason or not fantasy GMs have been drafting Conklin earlier and earlier (the news about Wilson avoiding any serious/long-term injury must have helped too) is for them to answer, but that's the main point in favor I see in drafting Conklin over Uzomah given the Jets' context and how they seem to be scheming their plays and player usage.
At the end of the day, though, the ADP is still inside the no-draft territory as you will be able to find both NYJ tight ends in the WW when all is said and done. If you happen to play in a TE-premium, 2-TE, etc... type of league, then I'd advise getting Conklin over Uzomah.
If you're a regular-league type of fantasy GM, then just entirely avoid these two and just keep an eye on the WW in case they explode, which shouldn't happen anyway. Reasonable rise of the ADP, but not worth tracking.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Goedert's ADP hasn't risen that much of late but the trend is there and it should only go higher each passing day from now to the season's kick-off in early September.
The main reason, of course, is Philly trading away J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in exchange for a defender, thus creating a little hole in the offense and opening a tiny-but-larger piece of the pie for Goedert to eat come playtime.
Don't get that news wrong, though, as it's not that JJAW was about to get 100 targets or something. He's the WR8 in Seattle's depth chart the last time I checked after the trade, so you get an idea of how prominent his presence would have been in Philly...
At the end of the day, Godert's true ADP bump is entirely related to him being the Eagles TE1 once and for all after the franchise traded Zach Ertz to Arizona last year. That's it. That's all there is to this thing. That doesn't mean he'll instantly turn into a legitimate threat to those into the TE1 realm, but he will get more chances from the get-go.
A.J. Brown is the new Eagles WR1, DeVonta Smith is an ascending WR2, and the Miles Sanders/Boston Scott/Kenneth Gainwell trio of rushers will get their fair amount of touches through the year. Goedert should be the second/third-best fantasy outfield player from the Eagles next year Philadelphia only behind the two receivers but above the stable of rushers.
Goedert's ADP is a bit rich to my blood if I'm honest. I know it's not entirely out of reason, and in fact, Godert's ADP of TE8 is actually lower than his projection (via PFF) of 2022 TE7, so the ROI might actually be there.
Goedert has been better than Ertz in all four years they shared the field on a per-opportunity basis, and already has two seasons of top-10 TE play in PPR leagues.
That said, I think he will regress a bit even in a better-looking context next year. Don't buy the ADP increase if it keeps rising because it will soon stop being worth it if it isn't already.
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts
Rarely does MAC misses games, but even then and although he's entering his fifth season as a pro, he's still to get more than 45 targets in any single season he's been part of.
Truth be told, Mo hasn't been lucky in that he's been in Indianapolis sharing the field with either living legends (Jack Doyle, Trey Burton) or on-the-rise players (Eric Ebron), which has clearly limited his opportunities. That should change in 2022.
Alie-Cox is, finally, the Colts' bona fide TE1 and PFF has a projection of 60 targets (42 receptions) for 459 yards and 4 TDs in his 2022 line. That, though, shouldn't have Mo higher than some borderline TE2 (top-24) player at the position. Thus the tiny ADP rise in the past three-to-four weeks of drafting data leading to the regular season.
The Colts might make MAC the go-to tight end on the roster, but at the same time, it's not that they'll be hurting for options on an offense that has arguably the no. 1 rusher in the league in Jonathan Taylor and a couple of nice receivers in Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell.
Yes, that's not the greatest receiving corps ever and Mo should get his fair share of targets, but even then it's not going to be an explosive type of season for him no matter what.
All that said, and at his current ADP of TE28, you could do much worse than getting him and his TE23 projection. Last-round pick for those absolutely punting on a solid TE in regular leagues, but a better option for fantasy GMs in two-TE, TE-premium formats.
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