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Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write primarily MLB and NFL on Rotoballer but I play a lot of NHL DFS and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, February 19th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/19/22
We have two games starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, one game starting at 9 p.m. Eastern Time, and then two games starting at 10 p.m. Eastern time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Thatcher Demko - DK $7.5K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Thatcher Demko is on the cheaper side of goalies tonight, yet his team is favored to win and the Ducks are implied for one of the lower totals on the slate, 2.4 goals. The last time they played the Ducks, the Cancuks won 2-1 and Demko had 22 saves and just one goal allowed en route to 17.9 DraftKings points and 25.6 FanDuel Points. I will likely take the salary savings from some of the heavier favorite goalies and hope Demko can have another nice game tonight.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.5K || FD $8.4K), Petersen (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Murray (DK $7.3K || FD $7.5K - GPP only).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Elias Lindholm- DK $7.4K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
The Calgary Flames are one of the hottest teams in the league and are implied for the highest total on the slate with four goals. Elias Lindholm has 46 points in 47 games played and is coming off of back-to-back three-point games. If Calgary does score four goals, I would expect Lindholm to get at least a point with three shots on goal.
Anze Kopitar - DK $6.9K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Facing one of the weakest teams in the league, I like Kopitar's chances of scoring a point tonight making him a fine one-off play. Because he scores more assists than goals, I am going to look to at least pair him with Adrian Kempe. I also am considering the line for a stack in GPPs as well.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $9.3K || FD $10K), Tavares (DK $6.8K || FD $7.9K), Danault (DK $5.8|| FD $5.2K), Backlund (DK $4.2K || FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
David Pastrnak - DK $8.6K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Although Boston is not as strongly favored as some other teams and does not have as high as an implied total as other teams, Pasta is always in play for me in DFS. He averages 4.33 shots on goal per game, making him a candidate for the five-shot on goal bonus every time he steps on the ice. At times this Boston offense looks like their primary objective is to create shots for him. If I can afford to spend up, I would look at Pastrnak.
Brady Tkachuk - DK $6.5|| FD $6.9K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
Tkachuk's last four games shots on goal have been five, five, zero, seven. While this isn't the greatest matchup, Boston's goaltending has been inconsistent and Tkachuk is at the right price where a handful of shots on goal and a point will more than make value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $7.8K || FD $8.8K), Gaudreau (DK $7.9K || FD $8.8K), Nylander (DK $5.8K || FD $7.6K), M. Tkachuk (DK $6.8K || FD $8.3K), Kempe (DK $5.0K || FD $5.1K), Toffoli (DK $3.9K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power play defensemen to a stack if playing a GPP.
Jakob Chychrun - DK $5.8K || FD $5.1K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Chychurn has had 13 shots on goal the last three games. Overall, it's been a bad season for him with just 11 points in 37 games played. He has also got the blocked shot bonus in three of his last five games. He is on the second power play, ideally if we are spending up for a defenseman it's someone on the first power play but this slate doesn't have a lot of great standalone options.
Drew Doughty- DK $6.2K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Doughty has scored double digit fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of his last four games. He is on the top power play going against the team with the second worst penalty kill in the league.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McAvoy (DK $6.5K || FD $5.2K), Rielly (DK $5.9K || FD $6.4K), Hughes (DK $5.0K || FD $5.5K), Krug (DK $5.3K || FD $5.1K), Gudbranson (DK $2.6K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Calgary (4.0 implied goals) and Toronto (3.8 implied goals) are the two teams with the highest implied totals on the slate. I would expect the top two lines on both of these teams to be popular. Los Angeles (3.3 implied goals), Boston (3.2 implied goals), Vancouver (3.1 implied goals), and Saint Louis (2.9 implied goals) are the bunch in the middle. My strategy tonight will be to find which of these teams in the middle are overlooked and hope they end up being the top stack of the night.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Calgary 1/PP1: They are getting more expensive which will hopefully suppress ownership on this slate. If they turn out to be too chalky (20%+) then it's a fade, it will be easier to tell as the game goes on. You could also make a Power Play stack here. Calgary Power Play 1 has the second most goals out of all the Power Play units. That sounds pretty impressive, however, their Power Play Percentage is just 11th in the league, but they are going against the 26th penalty kill in the league.
Calgary 2: I like Calgary 2, their price makes them an attainable filler stack pretty easily, so you would need a main stack that is different.
Los Angeles 1: If people are focused on Calgary and Toronto, then it is my hopes that Los Angeles gets overlooked here a little bit. Going against Arizona is a way to score in bunches. If you want to add on an Arvidsson or Doughty to make a power play stack you can do that too, however, Los Angeles power play percentage is 29th in the league (they are going against the 31st penalty kill in the league though).
Los Angeles 2: I also really like this Arvidsson-Moore-Danault line if Los Angeles 1 seems popular. I do not think having power play correlation is that much of an edge with the Kings as they have one of the worst power plays in the league (you still get some exposure to it with Arvidsson).
Anaheim PP2: This is my sneaky stack of the night. Do you want to get crazy off the board? Do you have one entry into a massive GPP? Did you know that Anaheim has the 5th best Power Play Percentage and Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league? With just 2.5 goals implied and Demko a likely popular goalie tonight, this will be overlooked.
Daily Faceoff will call this the second power play (hence the name), but they actually had 52.9% of the Power Play ice time last game against Edmonton. Silfverberg-Henrique-Terry-Fowler-Shattenkirk have scored six goals as a unit this season, which is actually the most out of all of the Anaheim Power Play combinations and 21st out of the 1,000 power play combinations that have hit the ice in the NHL. This one is pretty risky because although you get Henrique-Terry from Line 1, Silfverberg is on Line 3 while Fowler and Shattenkirk are only together on the ice about 14% of the time; You just don't get as much correlation outside of the actual power play.
