RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, March 10th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/10/22
We have a massive thirteen-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7 pm Eastern, 7:30 pm Eastern, 8:00 pm Eastern, 9 pm Eastern, and 10:30 pm Eastern. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
This slate is so large and there are so many places to go. I am sharing some of my favorite plays and players I am considering but on a 13 game slate, I can't list every possible option. If doing your research you find a play you like that isn't listed, go with it because you never know.
NHL DFS Goalies
Anton Forsberg- DK $8.0K|| FD $6.6K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
I am interested in Forsberg who is having a pretty nice season. He is 12-10-2 with a .921 SV% and a 2.69 GAA. He even has a shutout to boot. This is probably more of a floor than upside play. Seattle is second to last in shots per game at 28.44 (Arizona is the lowest).
On FanDuel, I think this play is a no-brainer; Forsberg is essentially minimum priced and is likely going to be the starting goalie in a home game that Ottawa will be favored in. Even on DraftKings, there is not a ton I love below the $8k threshold outside of a couple of GPP types of options to consider.
The pricing on this slate is weird. On DraftKings, you have many goalies over $8K while on FanDuel they are priced down a little lower. With such a large slate, my advice would be to build your lineup first and then see which goalie fits. The pricing discrepancy is so large between the two sites, I'd recommend using the player that fits best pricing-wise. For example, Lehner is a better value on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, while Shesterkin is a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Lehner (DK $8.7K || FD $7.6K), Hellebuyck (DK $8.1K || FD $7.1K), Husso (DK $8.2K || FD $7.8K), Vasilevsky (DK $7.8K || FD $8.3K), Andersen (DK $7.6K || FD $8.2K - GPP), Shesterkin (DK $7.3K || FD $8.4K - GPP), Fluery (DK $6.7K || FD $7.2K - GPP)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Auston Matthews DK $9.4K || FD $10.1K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Is water wet? Then Matthews is my top spend-up option on this slate. I feel like a broken record here but he averages the most fantasy points, he has as much upside as anyone else and is playing against arguably the worst team in the NHL. He has scored 75 points in 54 games and averages 4.5 shots on goal per game. If playing a cash game, you probably do not need to spend up for Matthews but if you are looking for a one-off spend-up, upside play, Matthews is the guy.
Jack Eichel - DK $6.7K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
While Jack Eichel has just seven points in ten games, he has been starting to heat up fantasy scoring-wise. In his last two games, he has scored one point in each game and taken 13 shots on goal. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. He is on the top line, the top power play, going against a bad defense and a bad goaltender. There is a solid chance he continues his point streak and here's hoping he continues to be aggressive with taking shots on goal.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $8.6K || FD $9.3K), Bergeron (DK $6.8K || FD $6.9K), Larkin (DK $6.6K || FD $8.2K - DK), Hughes (DK $6.5K|| FD$8.3K), Nelson (DK $5.0K || FD $6.3K), Trocheck (DK $4.4K|| FD $5.6K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Kyle Connor - DK $7.5K || FD $9.7K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Connor is priced down a little bit on DraftKings. Anytime you can get someone who has a legit shot at leading the slate with shots on goal at a discount, it is something to consider. I like Connor as part of his line stack, power-play stack, or a one-off play. He has 65 points (34 goals and 31 assists) in 58 games and averages 4.4 shots on goal per game.
Kevin Fiala- DK $5.1K|| FD $6.5K
Opponent -Detroit Red Wings
Kevin Fiala has 51 points (20 goals, 31 assists) in 55 games played. He has a four-game double-digit fantasy point streak and he has scored two or more points in three of his last four games. Detroit allows the 8th most shots on goal. If Greiss starts for Detroit, he has a .888 SV%. If it's Nedeljkovic, his SV% is .901. I like Fiala at his price in this matchup.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kaprizov (DK $7.8K || FD $9.2K), Huberdeau (DK $7.5K || FD $8.2K), Pastrnak (DK $7.2K || FD $8.6K), Ehlers (DK $5.8K || FD $7.1K), Duchene (DK $5.6K || FD $7.0K), Vrana (DK $4.0K || FD $5.8K), Brown (DK $3.9K || FD $5.1K), Bailey (DK $3.0K || FD $3.5K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Roman Josi - DK $7.8K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
It does not matter to me who the opponent is, Josi is always at the top of my list for defensemen if I can afford him. He has scored 61 points in 55 games played (15 goals, 46 assists) and averages 3.53 shots on goal per game. He is the defenseman most likely to score a point on the slate and is also likely to lead defensemen in shots on goal too. The only drawback is that he is expensive, and if he does not score a goal, there is probably a lineup combination out there without him that is better than yours.
Shea Theodore - DK $5.5K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Theodore averages 2.57 shots on goal per game along with having 36 points scored in 54 games played. He is on the first power-play unit and Buffalo has the No. 26 penalty kill (75.7%) in the league. Without looking at salary, he is a Top 5 option at Defense on the slate. When adjusting for the price, he is a strong consider from me.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ekblad (DK $7.3K || FD $6.2K), Seider (DK $6.4K || FD $6.5K), Rielly (DK $6.2K || FD $6.1K), Chabot (DK $6.1K || FD $5.7K), Spurgeon (DK $4.8K || FD $5.0K), Hronek (DK $3.8K || FD $4.8K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
This slate is so large that ownership is not my primary focus. This is a night where you are going to want to play three to six total lineups across several single entry and three max tournaments. Each lineup should have a primary stack and a secondary stack. Across all the lineups, there should be no repeats of stacks. I would not play 100% of any player either, so I would recommend mixing it up with value plays, punt plays, and goalies.
With that said, here are a few stacks I am interested in at the time of this writing. This is in no way an exhaustive list but more what I am most interested in playing.
Florida 2/PP1: Huberdeau - Bennett - Duclair. Florida is implied for 4.4 goals. This forward combination has scored the second-most goals on the team. You get some correlation to the power play with Huberdeau and Duclair. Or you could swap in Barkov for Bennett and add Ekblad for a power-play stack. Philadelphia has the No. 21 penalty kill (76.7%).
Florida 3: Do you know which line combination on Florida has scored the most goals? It is Marchment - Reinhart - Lundell with 17 goals scored. If Lundell is injured, Eeetu Luostarinen would be in his place. I like this stack better if Lundell plays, but either way it's a cheap filler stack that has some serious goal upside.
Boston PP1: Boston has the No. 7 power-play percentage in the league, going against Chicago with the No. 24 penalty kill in the league.
Minnesota 2: Fiala - Gaudreau - Boldy. This forward combination has scored 17 goals in 24 games played together. I like how this line is playing and I will want some exposure in a lineup for sure. The Wild are implied for 4.2 goals and one would hope that this line gets one or two of them.
Minnesota 1: Kaprizov - Hartman - Zuccarello. This combination I imagine will be popular as they are the combination with the most goals on the team with one of the highest implied goal totals on the slate. This stack is also fully correlated to the power play.
Vegas PP1: Eichel-Pacioretry pairing gives exposure to the top line. Theodore is a must if stacking the power play. Dadonov vs. Marchessault is going to come down to price and what you can fit given the rest of the lineups. Vegas is implied for 4.0 goals and Buffalo has the No. 26 penalty kill.
Los Angeles 1 or 2: Either of these stacks will go a little under the radar. The Sharks are not playing well, they are putting Sawchenko in the net against a Kings team that is No. 3 in the league in shots on goal per game.
Carolina 1: Svechnikov - Aho - Teravainen. Another stack that could be kind of sneaky on the night. This is fully correlated to the power play, and Colorado has the No. 22 penalty kill (76.3%). Additionally, Colorado is No. 10 in penalties per game (3.90). I have not been impressed with Colorado's defense recently. This group could get a couple of goals potentially.
I did not write up Toronto. They are expensive and I think if there is a team that could go over-owned on this slate, it would be them. With over 30 stacks viable on this slate, I think the winning lineup in your GPP is likely to have a stack that is not Toronto 1, 2 or their Power Play. I do like Matthews as a one-off as stated before.
