RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, March 11th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/11/22
We have a small, four-game slate tonight after we played a massive 13 game slate last night. We have two games starting at 7 pm Eastern, one at 7:30 and one at 10:00 pm Eastern. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Tristan Jarry- DK $8.2K|| FD $8.3K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Jarry is likely to start for a team that is favored to win and that's honestly what matters most. All of the teams on this slate are implied for three or more goals except for Columbus (implied for 2.6 goals). Jarry is 27-12-6 with a .920 SV% and four shutouts on the season. Vegas is not looking good at the moment. They scored just one goal last night against Buffalo, one goal against Philadelphia on Tuesday, and two goals against Ottawa on Sunday.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Every goalie is viable tonight except for Elvis Merzlikins (I assume he is starting as Korpisalo started last night). Grab whichever goalie you can afford with being a home favorite as the tie-breaker for your lineup.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Sidney Crosby DK $7.5K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Sidney Crosby is the most expensive center on the slate and he is just a consistent fantasy scorer that is great for your cash game lineups. He scores double-digit fantasy points virtually every time he is out on the ice. He has 56 points (19 goals, 37 assists) in 46 games played. He is currently on a four-game goal-scoring streak and a three-game assist streak. He does not have the upside some players have as he averages just 2.91 shots on goal per game
Evgeny Kuznetsov - DK $6.0K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
Not a lot of great options in the midrange. I'd recommend pairing a center with a winger you think is likely to score in the midrange or just punting at the position. Kuznetsov is on a three-game point-scoring streak. He has 55 points (17 goals, 38 assists) in 57 games played. He is mostly inconsistent with shots on goal. He averages 2.58 shots on goal per game but he will have games he has zero shots on goal.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Miller (DK $6.8K || FD $8.3K (Winger only on FD), Malkin (DK $5.8K || FD $7.5K), Pettersson (DK $4.6K || FD $6.1K), Eriksson Ek (DK $4.5K|| FD$5.4K), Backstrom (DK $4.2K || FD $5.5K), Gaudreau (DK $3.5K|| FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Kirill Kaprizov - DK $7.7K || FD $9.2K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Kirill Kaprizov will likely be the highest owned player on this short slate and with good reason. Minnesota is implied for the most goals on the night (3.6), and Kaprizov is the leading point scorer on the team with 72 points (28 goals, 44 assists) in 55 games. Columbus allows the most shots on goal in the league (35.75 per game).
Patrik Laine- DK $6.2K|| FD $7.7K
Opponent -Minnesota Wild
Patrik Laine has 42 points (22 goals, 20 assists) in 38 games played this year. Additionally, he averages 2.95 shots on goal per game. Minnesota is a good offensive team but they are a suspect defensive team. Columbus is likely to score at least one goal, and Laine is the most likely to either be the goal scorer or having made an assist on the said goal. Combine that with three or more shots and you have a nice night from Laine.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.5K || FD $9.8K), Guentzel (DK $6.9K || FD $8.7K), Connor (DK $6.8K || FD $9.7K), Zuccarello (DK $5.5K || FD $7.2K), Fiala (DK $5.1K || FD $6.5K), Ehlers (DK $4.8K || FD $7.1K), Beauvillier (DK $3.6K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Zach Werenski - DK $6.6K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Zach Werenski has 37 points (9 goals, 28 assists) in 52 games played. He averages 3.21 shots on goal per game along with 1.37 blocked shots per game. Werenski is also on the Columbus top power play, while Minnesota is No. 2 in penalties per game (4.39 per game).
Quinn Hughes - DK $5.5K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Quinn Hughes has scored 45 points (four goals, 41 assists) in 54 games played. He averages 2.07 shots on goal per game as well and is on the Power Play. Washington is No. 12 in the penalty kill, so while this power play isn't a smash spot, Hughes does have a decent shot at scoring an assist. An assist and a few shots on goal and a couple of blocks would be a nice night.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Letang (DK $6.9K || FD $6.8K), Carlson (DK $6.5K || FD $7.1K), Spurgeon (DK $4.9K || FD $5.0K), Dumba (DK $4.7K || FD $5.3K), Pionk (DK $4.0K || FD $4.7K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How to attack this slate is going to depend on what type of contest you are playing in. Minnesota is likely to be the highest rostered stack, but after Minnesota, I would expect ownership to be spread out as everyone more or less has the same total.
If playing in a large field tournament, you are going to have to stack a low-owned stack such as Columbus and find a third-line filler stack that does well too. If playing a single entry tournament, one has to consider rostering five players on one team and taking a stab on a team.
Here are a few stacks I like:
Minnesota 1: Hartman - Kaprizov - Zuccarello. Highest implied total, Kaprizov is a beast. If I stack this team, I will have to differentiate my lineup elsewhere and potentially leave money on the table, as this is just a four-game slate.
Minnesota 2: Boldy-Gaudreau-Fiala. This line is playing well. With Boldy having scored two goals last night, more and more people will catch on.
Columbus PP 1: I would not do a game stack here, but this stack could be sneaky. Although they have the lowest implied total on the night, Minnesota is shaky. They are No. 2 in penalties per game, and their penalty kill is No. 23 (76.2%). Minnesota is coming off a road overtime game, they could be sloppy here.
Washington PP 1: Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league (70.9%).
Pittsburgh 1: Pittsburgh is No. 6 (No. 1 on the slate) in shots on goal per game (34.72 per game). I don't mind Pittsburgh 2 and 3 on this slate either.
