RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, March 21st, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/21/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have one game starting at 7:00 pm Eastern, one at 8:00 pm Eastern, one at 9:30 pm Eastern, then one at 10:00 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. Today is the trade deadline (3:00 pm Eastern), players might get moved around. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Juuse Saros- DK $7.9K|| FD $7.7K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
It's been an up and down season for Saros. One night he will allow five goals and score single-digit fantasy points, and then the next night he will record a shutout and score 30-40 fantasy points. As stated before, I want to have a goalie that will see some shots so that they can get saves, especially on DraftKings where the 35 save bonus is big. Jeremy Swayman is the most expensive goalie on the slate and will be popular, but facing Montreal, how many shots will he see? If Swayman allows a goal and gets only 18-20 saves, he won't make value.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): On such a short slate you can consider pretty much any goalie, especially in a GPP. In cash games, here is the order I'd consider others: Kuemper (DK $8.1K || FD $8.4K), Talbot (DK $7.8K || FD $7.7K), Swayman (DK $8.2K || FD $8.0K). For GPPs, I'd consider in this order: Smith (DK $7.3K || FD $7.0K), Brossoit (DK $7.6K || FD $7.2K), Gibson (DK $7.5K || FD $6.8K).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon - DK $9.2K || FD $9.8K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
This is a slate with MacKinnon and McDavid on it and playing against each other! Because it is such a short slate, we have limited options beyond the spend-up options. If I am choosing one spend-up option tonight, it is MacKinnon. Colorado is at home, the goaltending from Edmonton is worse than Colorado's and on the power play, Edmonton has a worse penalty kill than Colorado.
The tough thing about this slate is that the best center options (MacKinnon, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Kadri) are all playing against each other. You might want to consider playing two from this game and if that is the case, I would recommend MacKinnon and Kadri.
Nick Suzuki - DK $5.4K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
I wanted to write up Jack Eichel here. Minnesota's defense is shaky and Eichel is in that midrange making for a decent value play. He is rumored to have a broken hand, and while he is still playing, he might be affected by this.
But since I am not confident in Eichel's health, I am offering a pivot in Nick Suzuki. Suzuki has been playing better; He has six points in his last five games. The issue is those five games were Ottawa, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia, and Seattle. Boston is a tough opponent. At the same time, in this midrange, there aren't many options.
Below will be some mostly GPP recommendations below Suzuki's cost. All of which are risky, and could score zeros.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Zegras (DK $4.2K || FD $5.7K), Stephenson (DK $3.9K || FD $4.8K), Gaudreau (DK $3.8K || FD $5.2K), Granlund (DK $3.5K || FD $4.7K), Haula (DK $3.3K || FD $3.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
David Pastrnak - DK $7.3K|| FD $8.1K
Opponent -Montreal
David Pastrnak is in a good spot going against the worst goaltender on the slate. He has 27 shots on goals in his last five games and is just under one point per game on the season (61 points in 62 games played). He comes in less expensive than Kaprizov on both sites and for the money, he is a better value than Kaprizov. Pastrnak could very well lead the slate in shots on goal and Boston has the highest implied total on the slate with 4.0 goals implied.
Matt Duchene- DK $6.0K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Nashville is implied for 3.4 goals scored against Anaheim. Duchene has 63 points scored (32 goals, 31 assists) in 58 games played. He averages 2.88 shots on goal per game. He is likely to score a point and get 2-3 shots on goal, and if that does happen he should meet value at his salary.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kaprizov (DK $8.0K || FD $9.3K), Rantanen (DK $7.0K || FD $8.6K), Forsberg (DK $6.9K || FD $8.4K), Marchand (DK $6.7K || FD $8.4K), Fiala (DK $5.4K || FD $6.8K), Caufield (DK $5.0K || FD $6.2K), Nichushkin (DK $4.5K || FD $6.4K), Boldy (DK $4.3K || FD $5.8K), Hoffman (DK $3.2K || FD $4.4K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $7.0K || FD $7.4K
Opponent -Edmonton Oilers
Cale Makar is my top pay-up option on the slate. He has 69 points (22 goals, 47 assists) in 59 games played and averages 2.98 shots on goal per game. He comes at a significant discount from Josi (who I think is a great GPP option if you have the cash). I do not think Makar is a necessary spend-up as there is a lot of value at defensemen on the slate.
Charlie McAvoy- DK $4.7K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Charlie McAvoy is a good value play on the slate. He has 40 points (8 goals, 32 assists) in 59 games played. He is on the top power-play (Montreal has the No. 30 penalty kill in the NHL at 74%), he averages 2.06 shots on goal, Boston is implied for 4.0 goals. He is just too cheap on this slate, especially on DraftKings. He is fine as a one-off or part of a Boston Power Play stack.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.2K || FD $8.2K - GPP), Pietrangelo (DK $6.1K || FD $6.7K), Nurse (DK $5.6K || FD $6.5K), Toews (DK $5.2K || FD $6.4K), Ekholm (DK $3.3K || FD $4.5K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How you approach this slate depends on your contest selection. There are six teams (of eight) that are implied for three or more goals on the slate. If playing in a single entry GPP, fade Boston (4.0 implied goals, largest favorite on the slate), fade Colorado (3.9 implied goals), and play stacks from Minnesota (3.6 implied goals), Nashville (3.4 implied goals), Vegas (3.0 implied goals), Edmonton (2.8 implied goals) and you should be different enough from the field.
If playing in a large field contest, because GPPs are about trying to get first place, taking a stack from Montreal (2.6 implied goals but hey they are home at least?) or Anaheim (2.7 implied goals but home as well) is probably what needs to be done to get the most leverage on the slate (not only will they be lower owned due to low implied totals, but the opposing goalies should be popular).
I generally play 4-3-1 stacks. My "4" is a four-man power play stack. I consider this my main stack. The three is an even-strength line stack, which is my "filler stack" usually. This is a 2nd or 3rd line that is at a value but all correlated. My "1" is a one-off, usually a defenseman and often a punt play. At goalie, I try to roster someone that is not popular as a goalie performance on a given slate is pretty random.
When I am playing a small slate like this one, I consider doing a 5-2-1 stack. My "5" would be an entire 5 man power-play. My "2" would be my filler stack, often a C-W stack on a 2nd or 3rd line that is at a value, and everything else is the same. This is another way to differentiate, even if playing some more popular teams on a small slate as many do a 4-3-1 or a 3-3-2 type of a stack. It is riskier, but if the team goes off, it can push you to the top.
I am not going to list any specific stacks in this article, as really everyone is playable to an extent in a small slate GPP. I am hoping expanding some of my tournament strategies can help you find the pieces that work best and help you get to the top of the standings!
