RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, March 24th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/24/22
We have a 10-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7 pm Eastern and 10 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy- DK $7.7K|| FD $8.3K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
Picking a goalie to go against the Boston Bruins can be a risky proposition. Boston is No. 3 in the league with shots on goal, averaging 35.57 per game. This is the exact reason that I like Vasilevskiy, especially on DraftKings. He is one of the best goalies in the league, and he is significantly less expensive than many goalies on the slate. On the season he is 32-13-5 with a 2.38 GAA, two shutouts, and a .919 SV%. On DraftKings, there aren't any goalies I would consider outside of GPPs to roster below his salary for today's slate. On FanDuel, Connor Hellebuyck is the play for a cash game, as he is just $7,100 and should be favored to win against Ottawa.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Hellebuyck (DK $8.6K || FD $7.1K - Better FD play), Husso (DK $8.5K || FD $8.0K - Better FD play), Bobrovsky (DK $8.3K || FD $8.6K), Sorokin (DK $8.2K || FD $7.5K), Saros (DK $7.8K || FD $7.7K), Oettinger (DK $7.4K || FD $7.6K - GPP), Forsberg (DK $6.8K || FD $7.1K - GPP only).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Leon Draisaitl - DK $8.4K || FD $9.7K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Aleksander Barkov are the top centers on the slate, are in the most favorable matchups, average nearly the same amount of fantasy points per game, so the top spend up option for me is the one that's the least expensive of the three. On DraftKings, that is Leon Draisaitl. He has 88 points (42 goals, 46 assists) in 64 games played, averaging 3.31 shots on goal per game. If you have the extra cash and are playing a one-off in a GPP, I would recommend McDavid as his upside is higher than Draisaitl's. On FanDuel, I would recommend Barkov as he is the least expensive of those top three on the slate.
Mark Scheifele- DK $6.3K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Mark Scheifele is what I think of when I think of a cash-game play. He is nearly a point per game player (57 points in 58 games) and averages 2.4 shots on goal per game. He has 33 assists and 24 goals scored on the year. He does not get zeros very often, but he also doesn't score outside of the mid-teens fantasy points wise either. He is on the top line with Ehlers and Wheeler, and he also is on the top power play. Going against a weak Senators team in which Winnipeg should score some goals, I like Scheifele for the price as a floor play in a cash game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $9.0K || FD $10.0K - GPP), Barkov (DK $8.7K || FD $8.9K), Miller (DK $7.9K || FD $8.4K - Winger on FD, C on DK), Eichel (DK $6.5K || FD $6.8K), Dubois (DK $5.4K || FD $6.4K), Schenn (DK $4.8K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Kyle Connor - DK $8.6K|| FD $3.6K
Opponent -Ottawa Senators
I had to do a double-take here but Kyle Connor is mispriced on FanDuel. He is averaging 19.84 fantasy points per game on FanDuel but is priced at just $3,600 on the slate. On DraftKings, he is the most expensive winger and should be reserved for GPPs as you can find some better value on the slate. Connor has 80 points (39 goals, 41 assists) in 65 games played. He averages 4.29 shots on goal per game. In the last two games, he has just three shots on goal combined, but has six points!
Jordan Kyrou- DK $5.8K || FD $6.0K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Jordan Kyrou isn't someone I roster as a one-off very often but he is someone I often include as part of a stack. On this slate, I like his price point given the season he is having and the opponent he is facing. He has 62 points (22 goals, 40 assists) in 59 games played. He averages 2.47 shots on goal per game. A point per game player going against a bad defense and goalie at around $6k is a pretty good value. If he can score a point and get 2-3 shots on goal, he should make value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kaprizov (DK $8.3K || FD $9.4K), Forsberg (DK $7.6K || FD $8.3K), Meier (if cleared to play) (DK $7.0K || FD $8.6K), Huberdeau (DK $6.8K || FD $9.0K), Tkachuk (DK $5.9K || FD $7.0K), Fiala (DK $5.6K || FD $6.7K), Caufield (DK $4.6K || FD $6.2K), Pettersson (DK $4.4K || FD $6.2K - C eligible on FD), Boldy (DK $4.4K || FD $5.6K), Moore (DK $4.1K || FD $5.6K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Roman Josi - DK $9.2K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
If the price wasn't an issue, Josi would be the top defenseman to roster every single night he plays. Josi has 79 points (18 goals, 61 assists) in 63 games played. He averages 3.54 shots on goal per game and 1.65 blocked shots per game. On DraftKings, he averages more fantasy points per game than Connor McDavid and Kyle Connor and he is priced up as such. To me, he is more of a GPP play or someone to include in a Nashville power play stack. On FanDuel he doesn't quite average the same number of fantasy points per game as McDavid (19.8 vs. 21.1) but comes at nearly a $3k discount from McDavid. He will be easier to fit into cash games on FanDuel as a spend-up option at D if you want.
MacKenzie Weegar- DK $5.4K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
MacKenzie Weegar has 35 points (6 goals, 29 assists) in 62 games. He averages 2.47 shots on goal per game and 2.06 blocked shots per game. On DraftKings, he is always a threat to hit the blocked shots bonus. He also logs a lot of ice time. He is averaging 23 minutes per game on the ice but in recent games as gone as high as 25, 26, and even 27 minutes on the ice. He is a productive player that picks up stats, so the longer he is out on the ice, the better it is for fantasy scoring.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dobson (DK $6.4K || FD $6.2K), Nurse (DK $5.7K || FD $6.3K), Hughes (DK $5.5K || FD $5.7K), Morrissey (DK $4.9K || FD $5.3K), Parayko (DK $4.9K || FD $5.2K), Edler (DK $2.9K || FD $4.1K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How you approach this slate depends on your contest selection. Because of the contests I play, on a larger slate like this, I try to find good plays that are overlooked due to the various options on the slate.
I expect Florida, Saint Louis, Minnesota, and Edmonton to be the most popular teams rostered. The top two lines on any of those teams are playable and if not listed here, know you can play them. I worry about how chalky they are. If you opt to roster a chalky stack, make sure you have leverage points in other aspects of your lineup.
Here are some stacks that I like:
Saint Louis 2: I expect STL 1 to be more popular as it's fully correlated to the top power play.
Minnesota 2/PP2: Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league. I expected Minnesota 1/PP1 to be very popular on the slate given this fact and given Minnesota is playing at home where they score more. I am going to be keeping an eye and ear out for what the industry likes as far as plays today. If I hear a lot of Minnesota, then I will likely consider Minnesota 2 as a filler stack. If nobody is mentioning Minnesota, then I am going to consider the PP1 as my primary stack.
New York Islanders PP1: The Islanders are not a team I roster often because they are not a team that generates a lot of offense. That said, Detroit has the 4th worst penalty kill in the league. Ownership will be low with this stack also because it is not fully correlated to a particular line (two of the three forwards in the first line are on the power play - Lee and Nelson). This is probably a stack I will not use in a single entry format, but it is one I would consider in a larger contest like a three max.
Winnipeg PP1/2: Ottawa has an average penalty kill, but this power play has scored well for me in the past against bad opponents. If you fade Morrissey, you get C-W pairings on the top two lines. Otherwise, I would opt to stack line 2.
Los Angeles 2: They have scored the most even-strength goals on the Kings and going against Chicago, a team that allows 32.25 shots on goal per game. Both teams will be playing the second of a back to back, so the opportunity for goals will be there in this game.
Florida 3: They are a filler stack as well. If wanting some Florida exposure but are concerned about ownership on Florida 1 and 2, this is the place to try to get exposure for cheap. I would only use them in large GPPs.
Carolina 3: This would be a filler stack. Dallas is not the same team on the road as they are at home and Oettinger is a highly variable goalie in terms of how effective he is. I would use them only in large GPPs.
