RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, March 4th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/4/22
We have a seven-game slate tonight. We have five starting at 7:00 pm Eastern Time, one at 8:00 pm Eastern Time, and one at 10:00 pm Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Igor Shesterkin- DK $8.3K|| FD $8.6K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
If Shesterkin is in the net, he is my favorite goalie play of the slate. He is 26-6-3 with a .940 SV%. At some point you'd have to figure there would be some regression to the mean with save percentage but New Jersey is one of the weaker teams in the league. Shesterkin will have a strong chance of getting the win, and most likely the highest probability of getting a shutout as well.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Oettinger (DK $7.9K || FD $7.8K), Kahkonen (DK $8.2K || FD $8.0K), Gibson (DK $7.6K || FD $7.1K), Merzlikins (DK $7.5K || FD $7.4K - GPP)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Mika Zibanejad- DK $7.3K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Without a lot of the marquee names on the slate, and others have tough defensive matchups. In a game that the Rangers should do well in, I am going to consider Mika Zibanejad. Zibanejad has 54 points in 54 games and averages 2.89 shots on goal per game. I think there is more of a floor than a ceiling here, however, as the Rangers' strength is the Power Play and the Devils are No. 11 in penalty kill percentage (81.4%). That does not mean that the Rangers won't do well on the Power Play, but it isn't the smash I want it to be. With the likelihood of scoring a point and getting a few shots on goal and more of a cash game type of lineup, I'm willing to roster Zibanejad.
Steven Stamkos - DK $6.7K || FD $8.5K (Winger Eligible)
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
This is a much better play for DraftKings than FanDuel, not only because you can play him at C on DraftKings and you cannot on FanDuel, but because of the price too. Stamkos has 60 points in 51 games and averages 2.82 shots on goal per game. Detroit is No. 6 in goals against per game and Tampa Bay should have a nice game here with Stamkos having a great opportunity to get at least a point in this one.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Point (DK $7.0K || FD $8.4K), Scheifele (DK $6.2K || FD $7.0K), Larkin (DK $5.6K || FD $8.5K), Seguin (DK $4.4K|| FD$5.6K), Danault (DK $4.1K || FD $5.3K), Gaudreau (DK $3.K|| FD $4.8K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Nikita Kucherov - DK $8.6K || FD $9.8K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Imagine if he could stay healthy. He has scored 26 points in 17 games averages 3.88 shots on goal per game. With so much value at Center tonight, this might be a good spend-up spot in a cash game. If you can afford Kucherov, I can't talk you out of it
Kevin Fiala- DK $5.2K|| FD $6.1K
Opponent -Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is not a good team, they have allowed the 5th most goals this season. Fiala is pretty good. He is a 0.86 point per game player and averages 3.25 shots on goal per game. Going against a bad team, there is some goal upside and getting a guy at his price that is likely to take over three shots in the game is pretty good.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Connor (DK $7.8K || FD $9.5K), Kaprizov (DK $7.2K || FD $9.1K), Kreider (DK $6.7K || FD $8.2K), Arvidsson (DK $6.0K || FD $6.4K), Boldy (DK $5.0K || FD $6.4K), Moore (DK $3.9K || FD $5.1K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Adam Fox - DK $6.6K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
I am writing up so many Rangers, I get nervous when touting Rangers chalk. Fox has scored 53 points in 51 games, averages 1.84 shots on goal per game, and 2.04 blocked shots per game. He is on the Power Play, which is really the strength of this Rangers team. I am not sure if I need to spend up with the value on this slate, but I like Fox more than Hedman and Letang.
Shea Theodore - DK $5.2K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
As with most defensemen in this price range, Theodore does not score a ton of points (35 points in 50 games). He does shoot a decent amount for a defender, 2.54 times per game. He is on the top Power Play, and although Anaheim has the No. 8 penalty kill in the league (82.3%), I still like having exposure to the Power Play from my defensemen when I can.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $6.9K || FD $6.7K), Trouba (DK $5.8K || FD $5.9K), Slavin (DK $5.3K || FD $5.7K), Sergachev (DK $5.1K || FD $5.5K), Spurgeon (DK $4.7K || FD $5.0K), McDonagh (DK $3.7K || FD $4.9K), Peeke (DK $3.5K || FD $4.0K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Tampa Bay (4.4 implied goals) has the highest implied total on the slate. From there, there is a bunch of teams: Minnesota (3.8 implied goals), Carolina (3.6 implied goals), Rangers (3.5 implied goals), Los Angeles (3.4 implied goals), with many other teams hanging around the 2.8-3.0 implied goal range.
Tampa Bay and Minnesota I would expect to be the highest owned stacks of the night. Of the teams in the bunch, I would expect the Rangers to be popular, as they are popular any time they are favored with a high implied goal total.
With all of that considered, here are some stacks I like tonight:
Tampa Bay 1: Palat - Point - Kucherov. This line combination has 11 goals in 17 games played as a unit. They will have a good chance to score a few more. I also am fine with a Power Play stack here by swapping out Palat for Hedman and then adding Stamkos. I lean towards Line 1 over the Power Play at the moment.
Tampa Bay 3: If you want Tampa Bay exposure in a potential blow-out and want to get different, Tampa Bay 3 is a good way to go: Colton-Cirelli-Raddysh. If the game is closer than expected, this play will bust. This stack is playing into the Tampa Bay blowout expectations we have for tonight.
Rangers PP1: Kreider - Zibanejad - Fox - Panarin/Strome. I am likely to fade New York, but they are implied for 3.5 goals and they play much better on the Power Play than even strength hockey at the moment. The Power Play combination could be a little more under-owned as there is not a full correlation between either of the top two lines and the power play. While New Jersey doesn't have an amazing Penalty Kill, they are No. 11 in the league. All in all, I could see the Rangers disappoint in this game. If I do roster them, it will be their power play.
Minnesota 2: Fiala-Gaudreau-Boldy is the combination and I love the way they are playing as of recently having scored two goals last night. Buffalo will not be able to slow down Minnesota. I am hoping people gravitate to Minnesota's top line (which is also very good) and Minnesota 2 goes a little under the radar.
Buffalo 1/PP1: Tuch- Thompson-Skinner. Talbot should not be in the net tonight for Minnesota and Kahkonen has been playing better than Talbot, although the last couple of outings has been bad. While I do like the Wild a bit more, I see a universe in which Minnesota allows four or five goals to them.
Columbus 1: Nyquist - Jenner - Laine: I really like the Jenner-Laine pairing as it has a correlation to the Power Play. Laine has been scoring more, and the goaltending from Los Angeles has been struggling more of late. If you wanted to get real interesting, you could take Jenner-Laine and add Bjorkstrand and Voracek to get Line 2 exposure and have a Power Play stack. Los Angeles' penalty kill is No. 29 in the league (75.3%), however, Columbus' Power Play is just No. 24.
