RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Saturday, April 16th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/16/22
We have a nine-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 pm Eastern staggered to 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jake Oettinger - DK $8.1K|| FD $7.9K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Jake Oettinger and the Dallas Stars are a -200 favorite at the time of this writing against the San Jose Sharks. Oettinger is 26-13-1 with a 2.53 GAA, one shutout, and a .914 SV%. He is coming off a decent showing against Chicago where he saved 36 of 40 shots and picked up a win against Chicago. On DraftKings, he is just the 5th most expensive goalie and a strong home favorite.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K), Vanecek (DK $8.4K || FD $8.1K), Kallgren (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Vasilevskiy (DK $8.2K || FD $8.0K), Merzlikins (DK $7.4K || FD $7.2K - GPP), Forsberg (DK $7.1K || FD $6.9K - GPP)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.4K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Both Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon are the slate, and both are typically favorites for spend-up options on slates. Matthews is a better option than MacKinnon, who plays against a defensive-minded Carolina, as Ottawa is No. 8 in shots allowed per game. Matthews averages 1.46 points per game and 4.74 shots on goal per game. Toronto is implied for 4.2 goals scored and Matthews has a great chance to lead the slate in points scored, goals, and shots on goals.
Evgeny Kuznetsov- DK $6.3K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
If unable to pay up for a Matthews, Kuznetsov is a great mid-range option on the slate. He averages 1.01 points per game and Washington is implied for 4.1 goals tonight. Kuznetsov should be in the mix for points on this slate. Additionally, Montreal is No. 3 in the league in shots allowed per game (34.45) in what looks to be a great spot for Washington.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Stamkos (DK $7.2K || FD $7.8K - Winger on FD), Lindholm (DK $6.6K || FD $8.0K), Hischier (DK $6.0K || FD $6.7K), Seguin (DK $4.9K || FD $5.3K), Hayes (DK $4.8K || FD $5.1K), Backstrom (DK $3.9K || FD $4.9K), Backlund (DK $3.4K || FD $4.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Johnny Gaudreau- DK $7.2K|| FD $9.2K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
On a slate with Mitchell Marner, Alex Ovechkin, Kyle Connor, Nikita Kucherov, and Mikko Rantanen, I am recommending... Johnny Gaudreau. Gaudreau averages 1.36 points per game and 3.21 shots on goal per game. Additionally, Calgary has the highest implied total on the slate (4.3 goals). Any of the above options are good for GPPs but Gaudreau is preferred in a cash game format.
William Nylander - DK $6.1K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
William Nylander is not to be paired with Auston Matthews unless you are stacking the Toronto power play. Nylander averages 0.97 points per game with 3.19 shots on goal per game. If you are looking for a more affordable way to get Toronto exposure than Matthews or Marner, this is a fine way to go.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.2K || FD $9.6K), Arvidsson (DK $6.6K || FD $6.3K), Bratt (DK $5.9K || FD $6.7K), Kempe (DK $5.7K || FD $6.2K), Robertson (DK $5.5K|| FD $7.8K), Konecny (DK $4.6K || FD $5.1K), Toffoli (DK $4.2K || FD $5.5K), Kaliyev (DK $2.6K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
John Carlson - DK $6.8K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
On a slate with Cale Makar and Zach Werenski, I am fading them outside of power-play stacks for GPPs as their opponents are not ones I like to target. Carlson is in a good spot. He averages 0.94 points per game, 2.43 shots on goal per game, and 1.39 blocked shots per game. He is also on the top power play. He is a good way to get exposure to the Capitals without paying up for Ovechkin.
Morgan Rielly - DK $5.8K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Morgan Rielly is a nice mid-range option as he is on the first power play for Toronto. He averages 0.88 points per game, 2.69 shots on goal per game, and 0.99 blocked shots per game. He is more offensive-dependent than some of the other defensemen. Still, at this price, it's hard to say it's a bad pick, especially going against a weaker opponent in Ottawa.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $7.2K || FD $6.9K), Toews (DK $5.6K || FD $6.2K), Durzi (DK $5.0K || FD $5.3K), Andersson (DK $4.2K || FD $5.5K), Hamonic (DK $3.6K || FD $4.4K), McDonagh (DK $3.3K || FD $4.4K), Larsson (DK $2.8K || FD $3.9K), Soucy (DK $2.7K || FD $4.2K), Megna (DK $2.6K || FD $3.7K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. I generally on a slate this size looking for the stacks that are likely to be overlooked but are still good:
Tampa Bay PP1: Winnipeg has the No. 28 penalty kill and Tampa Bay has just the No. 16 power-play but I like the talent on there.
New Jersey PP1: Seattle has the No. 27 penalty kill. It's not fully correlated to any of the lines so it's risky. New Jersey 1 is also interesting.
Buffalo PP1: Philadelphia has goaltending issues and has the No 23 penalty kill.
Los Angeles 2: This line puts up shots and always is a threat. Columbus allows the most shots on goal. Los Angeles 1 and PP1 are also good options on this slate.
Seattle 1: Seattle is implied for 3.4 goals and favored to win here.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
