RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday, April 18th, 2022 at 8:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/18/22
We have a six-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 8:00 pm Eastern staggered to 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Anton Forsberg - DK $7.5K|| FD $6.8K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Anton Forsberg is the least expensive goalie playing in a winnable game against the Seattle Kraken. On the season, Forsberg is 19-6-4 with a 2.78 GAA, one shutout, and a .917 SV%. Seattle takes the second-fewest shots per game in the NHL (28.77). I'd take Forsberg in cash and open up a bunch of salary to get some skaters with high floors.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.2K || FD $8.3K), Keumper (DK $8.0K || FD $8.5K), Oettinger (DK $7.8K || FD $7.6K), Demko (DK $7.6K || FD $7.1K - GPP). It's a small slate, you can probably talk yourself into any goalie depending on what kind of contest you are playing.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon - DK $9.0K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Nathan MacKinnon is my favorite spend-up option on the whole slate. If he ended this slate with the most points and most shots on goal, I wouldn't be surprised. In the last five games, he has scored 10 points and averaged five shots on goal per game. If Samsonov gets the start, I like this play even more as he has a .897% SV% on the season.
Jack Eichel- DK $7.8K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
After starting slow, Jack Eichel has been picking it up for Vegas. He just had a seven-game point-scoring streak snapped against Edmonton on Saturday. Over that span, he was scoring double-digit fantasy points each game and averaging 4.14 shots on goal per game. Even against Edmonton when he did not score a point, he did attempt five shots on goal. If looking for a cash game play more in the mid-range, Eichel is my favorite play.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Miller (DK $7.5K || FD $8.2K - Winger on FD), Aho (DK $7.3K || FD $7.8K), Lindholm (DK $7.2K || FD $8.0K), Hischier (DK $5.7K || FD $6.6K), Seguin (DK $5.2K || FD $5.3K), Backlund (DK $3.8K || FD $4.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Johnny Gaudreau- DK $7.8K|| FD $9.3K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Earlier, I said that Nathan MacKinnon is likely to score the most points on the slate, but if he doesn't I wouldn't be surprised if it was Johnny Gaudreau. Gaudreau averages 1.4 points per game and 3.2 shots on goal per game. Kevin Lankinen has a .887 SV% this season; Calgary should score some goals.
Max Pacioretty - DK $6.7K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Max Pacioretty has been picking up his production in addition to Jack Eichel. He averages 0.91 points per game and 3.67 shots on goal per game. He has 15 shots on goal in his last four games. Vegas is in a good spot here and Pacioretty isn't a bad way to get some exposure to the game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.6K || FD $9.7K - GPP), Rantanen (DK $7.5K || FD $8.1K), M. Tkachuk (DK $7.3K || FD $8.4K), Kane (DK $7.2K || FD $8.8K), Svechnikov (DK $6.8K|| FD $7.4K), Robertson (DK $6.0K || FD $7.8K), Toffoli (DK $4.3K || FD $5.5K), Niederreiter (DK $2.9K || FD $4.7K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Alex Pietrangelo - DK $6.5K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Alex Pietrangelo averages 0.55 points per game, 2.86 shots on goal per game, and 2.05 blocked shots per game. For a cash game, I like targeting defensemen that can score points in a variety of ways. Taking several shots on goal per game will always create some goal-scoring upside and the blocked shots can create some blocked shots upside on DraftKings especially. If a guy is getting points in a variety of ways, it is tougher for them to bust. Additionally, Pietrangelo is averaging 25 minutes of time on the ice per game, so he will be out there and playing.
Seth Jones - DK $5.7K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Seth Jones is another balanced player I like to target in cash games. He averages 0.62 points per game, 2.52 shots on goal per game, and 2.04 blocked shots per game. It's not a vastly different profile than Pietrangelo, and because of the opponent he is facing, he is priced $800 less than him on DraftKings. I am looking at more of a floor than a potential upside game here but some guaranteed production in the $6K range is very nice.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Makar (DK $7.8K || FD $7.3K - GPP on DK, better on FD), DeAngelo (DK $6.2K || FD $6.0K - Better on FD), Hughes (DK $5.2K || FD $5.5K), Theodore (DK $5.0K || FD $5.8K), Hanifin (DK $4.8K || FD $5.2K), Martinez (DK $3.9K || FD $4.4K), Hamonic (DK $3.6K || FD $4.4K), Larsson (DK $2.9K || FD $3.9K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. If playing in a single entry or smaller contest on a slate this size, if you fade the top couple of stacks and find one that is still viable, that's probably enough leverage you need on the field. If playing in a large entry tournament with thousands of lineups, you are probably going to need to roster a goalie against the most popular stack and try to get leverage there if you want the best chance at winning.
Here are some stacks I like for tomorrow:
Calgary 1: I am concerned they will be the most popular stack on the slate going against a bad goaltender. Also, Calgary 1 has the most even-strength goals in the NHL (70) and correlates to their top power play. I think they will be the second most popular stack and if that is the case, I don't mind taking them in Single Entry tournaments. If they end up being more chalky than I anticipate, and you want to roster, find leverage in secondary stacks and goalie (obviously don't play a goalie against this stack). Calgary 2 is a fine pivot but could also be a very popular filler stack.
Carolina PP1: They have the No. 9 power play and facing the worst penalty kill in the league. They do not fully correlate to a line (two on line 1, two on line 2). In a small slate like this, there might be some value in rostering all five players on the power play to get more exposure to the team than most will have (most will do a 4 man power play stack or a 3 man line stack).
Carolina 3: They have 33 goals together as a forward combination (No. 4 in the NHL). With this likely being a blowout against Arizona, this third line could get some time and get some goals. I'd recommend it as a filler stack in large-field tournaments if looking to get different.
Vegas 1 or 2: I cannot decide which line I like better. I am not as interested in a power-play stack; Vegas is No. 24 in power-play percentage (17.7%) and New Jersey is No. 14 in penalty kill. I have a slight lean to the 1st line at the time of this writing.
Colorado 1/PP1: Colorado is hot as they have scored 19 goals in the last three games. Washington allows the 6th fewest shots on goal per game and has the No. 11 penalty kill in the league. I wouldn't play Colorado with just one lineup but if playing three to five lineups I probably would just to see if the hot streak continues. I thought they were in a bad spot against Carolina and they scored seven goals, so you never know.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
