RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Sunday, April 24th, 2022 at 6:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/24/22
We have a seven-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 6:00 pm Eastern staggered to starting at 10:00 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Darcy Kuemper - DK $8.2K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
This is a tough goalie slate and really every goalie on here has its drawbacks. Colorado should win this game, so I figure get someone who has a decent floor to win the game. Husso would be another one. Everyone else I am suggesting could be the top-scoring goalie of the night or get absolutely blown up. Kuemper is coming off three straight games with save percentages below 90%. Either he is in bad form, or he is due for some positive regression. If you don't want to take that chance, I would look at Husso or Thompson instead.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Thompson (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K), Husso (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Talbot (DK $7.9K || FD $7.6K), Vasilevskiy (DK $7.4K || FD $7.3K - GPP).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.0K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Auston Matthews is a bit underpriced on DraftKings, as he averages more DraftKings points and has a slightly higher ceiling than the guy more expensive than him in Nathan MacKinnon. On paper, Washington doesn't give up a lot of fantasy points to centers. Matthews isn't your typical center. Also, on April 14th, he scored 21.4 DraftKings points and 25.6 FanDuel points against Washington.
Robert Thomas - DK $6.1K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Robert Thomas has been playing some outstanding hockey recently. He averages 1.10 points per game and just 1.58 shots on goal per game. He won't give you that much upside with his lack of shot attempts but he has a solid floor and is a good player to pair or include in a stack.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): MacKinnon (DK $9.2K || FD $9.8K), Bergeron (DK $6.9K || FD $7.2K), Kuznetsov (DK $6.1K || FD $6.8K), Dubois (DK $4.8K || FD $6.0K), Zegras (DK $4.9K|| FD $5.6K - better on FD), Stephenson (DK $3.3K || FD $5.2K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
David Pastrnak - DK $7.0K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
David Pastrnak is a shot taker. He averages 4.37 shots on goal per game. Montreal allows shots like Woah, as they are No. 3 in shots allowed per game (34.37). I cannot believe he isn't the most expensive winger on the slate as he probably should be. Take the value here.
Andre Burakovsky - DK $3.6K || FD $5.2K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
With Mikko Rantanen out, Burakovsky will be on the top line skating with Nathan MacKinnon. His price is too cheap to be on a line with MacKinnon. Last game he scored 16.0 DraftKings points and 22.4 FanDuel points.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.4K || FD $9.3K), Kaprizov (DK $7.9K || FD $9.1K), Marner (DK $7.5K || FD $9.5K), Pacioretty (DK $6.7K || FD $7.7K), Marchand (DK $6.6K || FD $8.0K), Forsberg (DK $6.3K || FD $9.0K), Ehlers (DK $6.2K || FD $7.8K), Duchene (DK $5.9K || FD $7.5K), Fiala (DK $5.7K || FD $7.4K), Terry (DK $4.8K || FD $6.4K), Hall (DK $3.8K || FD $5.6K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $7.4K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
I do not understand the pricing on DraftKings. Cale Makar is too cheap as well. With Rantanen out, he will play a larger role on offense. I would expect him to score a point and shoot at least three shots on goal.
Justin Faulk - DK $4.6K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Justin Faulk is skating on the top power play for Saint Louis and averages 23 minutes of time on the ice per game. His value comes from scoring the occasional point and shots on goal. While he averages 2.18 shots on goal per game, he has 14 shots on goal in the last five games. At his price, he doesn't have to do much to make value here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.1K || FD $7.9K), Hedman (DK $6.6K || FD $7.1K), Carlson (DK $6.1K || FD $6.4K), McAvoy (DK $4.7K || FD $6.3K), Martinez (DK $3.7K || FD $4.2K), McDonagh (DK $2.8K || FD $4.4K), Leddy (DK $2.5K || FD $4.0K), Megna (DK $2.5K || FD $3.6K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. This slate is large enough that you can find some overlooked stacks or players and be fine. In smaller contests, you can be more chalky and choose maybe one leverage point. In a large field GPP, you might need to choose two leverage points to try to win.
Saint Louis (4.4 implied goals), Calgary (4.0 implied goals), and Florida (3.9 implied goals) I imagine will be popular.
Here are some stacks that I like:
Minnesota PP1: Nashville commits the most penalties per game in the league. While they have the No. 16 penalty kill, their opponents go into the power play more frequently.
Nashville PP1: Minnesota commits the second-most penalties per game in the league behind Nashville. Minnesota has just the No. 24 penalty kill.
Colorado PP1: They will be less expensive than usual. Winnipeg has the No. 29 penalty kill in the league.
San Jose PP1: While Vegas is favored, their penalty kill is just No. 21 in the league, and that San Jose 1/PP1 scores most of the goals on San Jose.
Minnesota 2: For the amount of games they have played together, you could argue at even strength they are one of most productive lines in the league. They have 33 goals in 43 games played together, and that's good for No. 5 among all forward combinations in the league.
Toronto 1: They have scored 48 goals as a forward combination, No. 3 in the league. Washington has a good penalty kill, so most of the scoring would have to come at even strength most likely.
Boston 2: You get Pastrnak and two of the five players on the top powerplay.
In general, this is a slate that could have a lot of scoring with a lot of different places to go. To get instant leverage, you can stack against a chalk goalie or roster a goalie against a popular stack. I would do those more in a larger field tournament that was top-heavy. In a smaller tournament, I think you can find the good overlooked plays and win that way.
