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It's playoff time starting tonight! Because the NHL is making this week full of four-game slates, we have decided at RotoBaller to provide you with some NHL DFS content -- playoff-style!
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday, May 2nd, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/2/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 9:30 p.m. Eastern, and 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter. As such, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
NHL DFS Goalies
Mike Smith - DK $8.1K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
With there being four games, we have four goalies that are favored to win. The Edmonton Oilers are the largest favorite on the slate at -210. Additionally, the Kings were No. 5 in shots on goal per game in the regular season (34.94 shots on goal per game). The combination of being the largest favorite to win and also the possibility of having the most saves on the slate make this my favorite goalie play.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Husso (DK $7.4K || FD $7.5K - Small field GPP play), Vasilevskiy (DK $7.5K || FD $8.3K - Alternative Cash play), Quick (DK $7.3K || FD $7.2K - Large field GPP leverage play). You can make an argument for any goalie on this slate. Outside of the Kings/Oilers game, the betting lines are close and the season-long SV% is also close. This is the position I would fill last.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.2K || FD $10.2K
Auston Matthews is the top Center on the slate. Yes he is facing Tampa Bay, and Vasilevskiy is one of the best in the game, but Matthews has also had success against them having scored three goals and one assist on April 4th. He has the highest upside on the slate and is my favorite spend-up option across all positions on this slate.
Steven Stamkos - DK $7.8K DK Only (He is on FD but too much $ and not a C)
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
I like Stamkos as a cash game center on DraftKings. First, it's unbelievable to me that Stamkos had 106 points and 42 goals on the season. It seems like nobody is talking about that. Lastly, Tampa Bay has gotten it done in the playoffs winning back-to-back Stanley Cups while Toronto has not gotten out of the first round in what seems like a lifetime. I generally I do not like to play into narratives but it is hard to ignore this one. He is too expensive and not in the right position to be rostered on FanDuel.
Robert Thomas - DK $4.5K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
If you want a cheap point-getter, Robert Thomas is your guy. On the season, he scored 77 points in 72 games. He does not take many shots on goal, averaging 1.6 shots on goal per game. If he does not score a point, he does not make value. I like Saint Louis here more than the books do, as Fluery had just a .908 SV%, one of the lowest on the slate. The nice thing is if you roster him, it allows you to be able to spend up for an Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $8.9K || FD $9.9K - GPP only), Draisaitl (DK $8.4K || FD $9.7K), Bergeron (DK $6.5K || FD $8.0K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Vladimir Tarasenko - DK $6.4K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Vladimir Tarasenko is my favorite cash game winger on the slate. He averaged 1.09 points per game with 3.06 shots on goal per game. The goal-tending situation is shaky in Minnesota in my opinion.
Kevin Fiala - DK $5.8K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Saint Louis Blues
Fiala provides a good value on DraftKings. He is also priced well on FanDuel even though he is much more expensive over there. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games and averaged 3.2 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $8.2K || FD $9.6K), Kaprizov (DK $8.0K || FD $9.7K), Pastrnak (DK $7.3K || FD $8.7K), Kyrou (DK $4.0K || FD $6.6K).
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Victor Hedman - DK $7.7K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
Hedman has the most upside of all the defensemen on the slate. In addition to scoring just over one point per game, he averages 2.67 shots on goal and 1.57 blocked shots per game. He has the best floor and highest upside of the defensemen on the slate.
Evan Bouchard - DK $5.1K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Evan Bouchard averages 2.53 shots per game and 1.38 blocked shots per game. He rarely gets you a zero and he has 20+ fantasy point upside each slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nurse (DK $6.4K || FD $5.7K), McAvoy (DK $4.9K || FD $6.2K), Faulk (DK $4.4K || FD $4.6K), Spurgeon (DK $4.0K || FD $5.5K), Krug (DK $3.8K || FD $4.7K), McDonagh (DK $3.0K || FD $4.5K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a four-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. There is going to be a chalk/optimal type of a build, you will want to try to get different from that. Edmonton is the strongest favorite and has the highest implied total on the slate. I could see Edmonton + Smith being popular, and if they are, I would get away from that combination as much as possible.
Here are some stacks I like:
Tampa Bay 1/PP1: Tampa Bay is implied for 3.2 goals (4th highest) and they are an underdog on the slate. If people are going to be looking at Edmonton, Minnesota, and Toronto, I don't mind going with the defending champs if they are being overlooked.
Los Angeles 2: Edmonton allows the most shots on goal out of the teams playing while Los Angeles shoots the second-most shots on goal of the teams playing.
Saint Louis PP1: The Blues have the No. 2 power play while Minnesota has the No. 25 penalty kill and commits the third-most penalties per game in the entire league.
