RADIO
It's playoff time starting tonight! Because the NHL is making this week full of four-game slates, we have decided at RotoBaller to provide you with some NHL DFS content -- playoff-style!
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, May 5th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/5/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 9:30 p.m. Eastern, and 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter. As such, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
Playoff Series Context
Here is how the series today stand:
PIT @ NYR || PIT is up 1-0
WSH @ FLA || WSH is up 1-0
NSH @ COL || COL is up 1-0
DAL @ CGY || CGY is up 1-0
I expect Colorado and Calgary to continue to roll with New York and Florida doing everything they can to even up the series. They will play into some of my picks below.
NHL DFS Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky - DK $7.9K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
This pick day in and day out is going to come down to "who is the cheapest goalie that I trust?". In a cash game format, if I am expecting the Rangers, Panthers, Avalanche, and Flames to win, then I am choosing the least expensive goalie from that bunch. On DraftKings, it's Sergei Bobrovsky. He allowed 3 goals but the Panthers allowed 37 shots on goal. Florida needs to avoid going down 2-0 after having a disappointing playoff run last year. Bobrovsky had a solid .913 SV% this season and won 39 games.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.1K || FD $7.8K - FD cash play), Shesterkin (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K), Kuemper (DK $8.4K || FD $8.4K), Domingue (DK $7.7K || FD $7.6K - large field GPP only).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon- DK $8.9K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
Nathan MacKinnon has the highest ceiling of the centers on this slate. He is also somewhat underpriced, at least on DraftKings. He isn't necessary in cash games, where I think there is some decent value, but he is someone to consider in a GPP where you need to hit the upside in order to win a tournament. Last game, MacKinnon had two goals, one assist, and six shots on goal in what was utter domination of the Predators by the Avs.
Elias Lindholm - DK $6.0K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Lindholm makes for a great cash play on this slate. He does not have the upside, but he is just solid in that he scores a point per game and shoots 2.86 shots on goal per game. He rarely scores about 15 fantasy points in a game, but he also rarely scores a dud as well. Last time out he had one goal on two shots and a blocked shot. Calgary should have another good game tonight as they are just way better than Dallas.
Evgeny Kuznetsov - DK $4.9K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
I do not expect Washington to win this game tonight but that does not mean that Kuznetsov, at his price tag, cannot turn in a solid performance still. He averages just under one point per game and takes 2.65 shots per game. Last time out, he had one goal on four shots. And as a result of that performance, his price on DraftKings went down. He is not someone I would consider for tournaments but he is a solid value option, especially on DraftKings, in a cash game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $7.3K || FD $9.0K), Kadri (DK $6.6K || FD $8.0K), Zibanejad (DK $6.2K || FD $7.8K), Malkin (DK $5.9K || FD $7.6K), Bennett (DK $4.4K || FD $6.3K), Carter (DK $3.6K || FD $5.0K), Granlund (DK $3.5K || FD $5.3K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Johnny Gaudreau- DK $6.6K || FD $8.8K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Johnny Gaudreau is underpriced on both sites. He is someone that has been over $7K for a lot of the year on DraftKings and after back-to-back single fantasy point performances, he is priced down. On the season he averaged 1.4 points per game and 3.16 shots on goal per game. Cash games are about picking off the best value and I would take this value if playing cash games in hopes Gaudreau can turn in a performance closer to his season averages.
Chris Kreider - DK $5.9K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
Kreider is appropriately priced on FanDuel but is underpriced on DraftKings. He scored 30 fantasy points last game and on DraftKings is less expensive than he was last game. Kreider is one of New York's main goal scorers and if New York is going to pull all the stops to win, Kreider likely has a big game. On DraftKings I have to roster him I think. On FanDuel, there is more of a debate. He has averaged 0.96 points per game and 3,22 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $7.6K || FD $9.5K - GPP only), Rantanen (DK $7.0K || FD $8.1K), Huberdeau (DK $7.1K || FD $9.0K), Forsberg (DK $6.7K || FD $8.7K), Tkachuk (DK $5.7K || FD $8.4K), Landeskog (DK $5.2K || FD $7.8K), Duchene (DK $4.9K || FD $7.9K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $7.9K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
Cale Makar averages 1.14 points per game, 3.10 shots on goal per game, and 1.44 blocked shots per game. He has a high floor and a high ceiling among defenders. Technically Roman Josi is a higher floor and higher ceiling player than Makar but I do not anticipate Nashville to do very well. Makar is probably not necessary in cash games either but if you are going to spend up on one defender for cash, he would be my choice.
Aaron Ekblad - DK $6.3K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Aaron Ekblad is a good player. He averages 0.92 points per game, 2.94 shots on goal per game, and 1.11 blocked shots per game. He was hurt for a couple of months almost and just came back in Game 1 of the playoffs and did not do much. Hopefully, he can shake some rust off and step it up for Florida who had a disappointing showing in Game 1.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.2K || FD $7.7K - GPP), Letang (DK $6.4K || FD $6.6K), Carlson (DK $5.3K || FD $6.5K), Trouba (DK $5.0K || FD $5.8K), Tanev (DK $3.1K || FD $4.2K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a four-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. There is going to be a chalk/optimal type of a build, you will want to try to get different from that. Colorado has the highest implied total and is the strongest favorite on the slate. In a large GPP, it's probably necessary to fade them for example.
To win a GPP, I think you choose one of the large favorites (New York, Colorado, Calgary) and pair them with a goalie going against another one of the big favorites. I think the hope is that you hope you pick the right stack (i.e. New York ends up being the top stack and you picked them) and you guessed on which goalie shut down another favorite (i.e. you decided to roster Oettinger and he shut down Calgary).
Even if there is an upset, I do not see it as a high-scoring game. I am personally going to play single entry, take a stand on which of New York, Colorado, and Calgary is going to be the top stack, and then roster the goalie against the stack I thought would do the worst.
