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In the most shocking move so far during the NFL's free agency period, RB Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams was released on Thursday, March 19. For perspective, this comes after signing a record deal of four-years, 60 million dollars back in 2018. It didn’t take long for the star running back to find a new employer as he signed a simple one-year, $6- million deal with the Atlanta Falcons.
Sources said Gurley preferred to play for Atlanta or Miami and by choosing the former, he returns to the place where he played college ball in Georgia.
With the Falcons in the market for a running back after cutting Devonta Freeman earlier this week, let’s look at Gurley’s potential in the dirty south.
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Breaking Down Gurley’s Recent Struggles
It’s true that Gurley had a huge letdown year in 2019 and disappointed many fantasy owners who rode him to a championship in 2017 and 2018. That disappointment was justified considering the 25-year-old recorded career lows in rushes (223), rushing yards (857), rushing attempts per game (14.9), and yards per reception (6.7).
The star running back wasn’t utilized properly by coach Sean McVay of the Rams, a mistake the coach wholeheartedly admitted. The Maryland native dropped off in fantasy as a result in 2019, falling to 11th among active RBs after consecutive number one finishes in 2017 and 2018.
Part of the issue with the running back’s decline in 2019 was a nagging knee injury that he sustained back in 2018. We haven’t seen Gurley return to top form since that injury and the concern that he brings to a relatively no-name Falcons RBs room is if he can play at the level that fans and fantasy owners have come to know.
The Current Stable of Falcons RBs
With longtime RB Devonta Freeman cut from the team earlier this week, Gurley’s fantasy value remains as strong as ever because he is poised to be the workhorse RB on the team. However, could another RB on the team possibly cut into his production?
Well, you may be wondering what other back is even on the team considering Freeman and Tevin Coleman are both gone. In 2019, the committee of Brian Hill, Ito Smith, Qadree Ollison, and Kenjon Barner compiled 126 rushing attempts, 507 rushing yards, and seven rush touchdowns as Freeman chewed up most of the rush attempts. These are the current RBs on the team right now, but Gurley alone had more rushing attempts (223), rushing yards 857), and rush touchdowns (12) than all of them combined. Simply put, this current group of Falcons RBs poses no threat to Gurley’s fantasy value and likely rush attempts too since they are unproven.
Therefore, the new acquisition is not cutting into the production of anyone fantasy-relevant, and it would have been an RB committee with no fantasy relevance if Gurley had not been signed. It’s safe to say the former Ram will get a high share of rushes and be the unquestioned starter on the team without much concern for another RB cutting into his production. This is because Gurley offers rushing and pass-catching abilities.
It seemed likely that the team would have drafted an RB if Gurley was not signed, but now the focus will likely shift to the defense in the draft as RB, WR, and TE (Hayden Hurst was acquired via trade from Baltimore this week) all have capable starters.
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Despite a down year in 2019, the former Georgia Bulldog still did finish with 12 rush touchdowns during last season, which was tied for fifth among RBs. Gurley is slated to be the workhorse back on this Falcons team and is a strong bounce-back candidate this season on an offense that can light it up. He has averaged 17.3 rush attempts per game in his career and it should roughly be the same with ATL.
When looking at Gurley from a fantasy perspective, his versatile abilities make him an attractive fantasy option. Look no further than his rich share of touches, total rushing yards (5,404), rush touchdowns (58), yards per game average (74), receiving yards (2,090), and receiving touchdowns (12) throughout his robust five-year career thus far.
He had 29 rushing attempts, 11 touchdowns, and 55.8 percent of the rush attempts in the red zone for the Rams last season, which is an indication of the rich fantasy potential the star provides. In Atlanta, Gurley should see an equivalent amount of opportunity in the red zone which makes him a great fantasy prospect because of his touchdown potential every week.
When healthy, the 25-year-old can dish out huge fantasy numbers because of his rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, something that has made him a dual-threat in fantasy.
Overall, considering his recent injury history, Gurley may not be the top pick in drafts like he was the past several years. Because it’s unknown how much he will be hampered by any potential injury re-aggravations (hopefully not at all), his fantasy value takes a hit due to reliability concerns. Still, Gurley should at least be considered a low RB1 or high RB2 given his extremely high potential. Therefore, he should be considered more of a top-10 or top-15 fantasy RB in redraft leagues with a massive boom or bust potential.
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