RADIO
Unfortunately, back to the well we go. UNC was a tough beat as they won by three when I had them at -3.5, New Mexico sent their game total to over in the final four minutes of the game when I had the under, while the rain seemingly took over the Ohio State/Wisconsin game, which limited both offenses from scoring. Tough weekend, but I'm not going to get discouraged. We're probably still at the point where you do the opposite of my picks.
- Week 9 Picks: 0-3 (0%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 13-16 (45%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week of the NCAA. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
Cincinnati at East Carolina (+23.5)
O/U: 47.5
The Bearcats have been rolling this year, despite a 42-0 loss to Ohio State. Coming off a bye week, it’s hard not to expect quarterback Desmond Ridder to be hitting on all fronts. His 1,400 yards passing and 200 yards rushing alongside 16 total touchdowns makes him one of the top dual-threat options in the AAC. Halfback Michael Warren has been solid with 500 yards and four scores, but he has yet to reach his potential, and with Cincy trying to make a splash in the CFB world for the rest of the year, expect him to step it up a notch.
East Carolina isn’t a very good team, but no one expected Mike Houston to turn things around overnight. They have wins against Garder-Webb, William & Mary, and Old Dominion; not exactly a strong portfolio. Holton Ahlers has been mediocre leading the offense, but he has the ability to make plays on the ground and in the air. If not for him, this team might not have as much to show. Of importance to note is that they just lost starting linebacker Aaron Ramseur for the year. So a defense that allows 28 points per game (ppg) just lost a top playmaker; you can do the math.
Cincy coach Luke Fickell distinctly spoke about their 48-20 loss to ECU in 2017 in his presser this week, so to say he’s motivated to make up for it is an understatement. You can probably trust the Cincy and the points here with the Bearcats coming off a bye, however, ECU has scored at least 17 in each of their last five so I’m gonna target the total here. Cincinnati should have no problems scoring 30 or more on this ECU team, so it comes down to the Pirates moving the football, which I think they can do enough.
Pick: Over 47.5
UAB at Tennessee (-12)
O/U: 48
UAB has quickly become one of the top Group of Five schools in the country after the program nearly went extinct in 2014. With the Blazers at 6-1, Tennessee is without a doubt the best team they’ll play this season, but that’s not saying much, as the Vols are 3-5. The Tyler Johnston-led Blazers average 30.8 ppg game this year, including 33 in each of their last three games. However, their defense is the hot topic, as they house the eighth-ranked scoring defense in the NCAA, allowing just 15 ppg overall, and 18 ppg on the road.
Naturally, the SEC schedule hasn’t been kind to the Vols this year but they’ve also struggled elsewhere. Their quarterback situation has been questionable, thanks to injuries, but all three options are cleared to play this week. However, coach Jeremy Pruitt wouldn’t commit to who would be the guy. This uncertainty does not come at a good time for a team fighting for bowl eligibility. They need a spark, as they have averaged just 18 ppg, offensively, over their past five, and that includes the 41 they scored against South Carolina last week.
Over their last 10 games as a home favorite of between 10-and-15 points, Tennessee is just 4-6 against the spread, which dates back to 2005. However, they have the same record as a home double-digit favorite in their last 10, including four games against FCS opponents. Whereas, UAB isn’t a stranger to playing SEC teams on the road, taking on Florida and Texas A&M in the last two years. While they lost both by 21 points, Tennessee isn’t currently at the level of either of those programs were in those years.
Pick: UAB +12
Oregon State at Arizona (-5.5)
O/U: 71.5
The Beavers aren't a solid program by any means, but they've been taking care of business in conference recently. Coming in fresh off their bye week, Oregon State has won two of their last three, with wins over Cal and UCLA, and a blowout loss to Utah. Offensively, the Beavers average 411ypg and 30ppg, and quarterback Jake Luton is a large factor in that. His 1,600 yards and 16/1 TD/Int don't jump off the page when you consider some other Pac-12 quarterbacks, but it's been solid for OSU. Halfback Artavis Pierce and wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins are a fantastic pair to complement Luton, as they combine for 15 touchdowns. Defensively, Oregon State is rough, but they do allow just 4.9 yards per play on the road, which is one of the lower marks in the country.
I've targeted Arizona games a handful of times this season, and it's because this team puts up lot of points. However, truth be told, they're an absolute mess right now. They just fired their defensive coordinator, and over the past three games, they've been utilizing a relatively ineffective two-quarterback system. Khalil Tate and Grant Gunnell are two different style of signal callers, with Tate being a streaky dual-threat player, but it hasn't benefitted the Wildcats at all as they've been outscored 133-52 in that stretch. Defensively, they allow 5.6 yards per play at home, which is on the lower half of the NCAA.
Both of these teams are a bit rough around the edges, especially defensively. However, Oregon State has been playing better football of late and had an extra week to prepare for this matchup. The Beavers have been solid when playing in Tucson; since 2000, they're 6-1-1 ATS, according to Oddshark.com. Combine Arizona's recent misfortunes with Oregon State playing their best football of the season right out of a bye week and I'll side with the Beavs.
Pick: Oregon State +5.5
