RADIO
Perfection was what we had here in Week 11 and man what a wonderful weekend of college football it was. LSU is building something special and them outright beating Alabama made my heart happy. As we wind down near the end of the regular season, these games all have some sort of stipulation tied to them. It's essential to pay attention to certain matchups as we have more information available to us.
- Week 11 Picks: 3-0 (100%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 18-17 (51%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week in the NCAA. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
Louisiana Tech at Marshall (-4)
O/U: 56 (**NOTE This game is on Friday, 11/15 at 7:00pm EST)
La Tech has been cruising of late, racking up eight straight victories, including their last four that have been by at least 15 points or more. Since the beginning of October, they've compiled 2,197 yards of offense and outscored their opponents 208-89. Quarterback J'Mar Smith along with running back Justin Henderson combine to make the most formidable backfield in C-USA. they should have no issues moving the ball against a defense that allows 5.6 yards per play.
The Thundering Herd have been on a nice streak themselves, winning each of their last four by combined scores of 113-78. In Week 12 they're fresh off a bye and heading into their biggest game of the season, against a team that's equally as hot. So they'll look to signal caller Isaiah Green and his backfield partner Brenden Knox to step their respective games up at home. Both have combined for 22 of the team's 27 offensive touchdowns this season, so they're clearly capable of making plays. Defensively, Marshall is serviceable against the run, allowing just 3.8 per attempt, but I don't see them stopping Henderson of La Tech.
**UPDATE: Quarterback J’Mar Smith and receiver Adrian Hardy will be not be available for Friday night’s game, due to violation of team policies. Disregard this pick!** The Bulldogs houses the 13th-ranked scoring offense with 38.1 points per game, which has been inflated over the past four games. However, that's just a testament to their ability to score often, and I don't see Marshall stopping that. Alternatively, the host Herd have proven capable of scoring at home, as the total in all five of their 2019 home games has gone over. Somehow this total has dropped from opening at 57 and it should probably be over 60, but we'll take the generosity of Vegas here.
Pick: Over 56
Arizona at Oregon (-27)
O/U: 68
The Wildcats haven’t been too hot of late, losing four straight, after starting the year 4-1. Is it coincidental that that losing streak began when Arizona started using two quarterbacks to run their offense? Probably, seeing as they’ve given up at least 189 points in the streak. Khalil Tate and Grant Gunnell have been sharing signal caller duties, and for the most part it’s been effective, as they’ve averaged 27.5 points per game over the last four. Basically, Arizona has to score 50 or more every week to give them a chance to win this one, which isn’t a great recipe for success.
Oregon just moved into the Top 6 of the College Football Playoff rankings, and for good reason. This Ducks squad has won eight straight, including last week’s 56-24 takedown of USC. While quarterback Justin Herbert has been a stud all season, throwing for over 2,300 yards and 24 touchdowns, his trio of wide receivers (15 TD’s combined) really put the offense over the top. Defensively, Oregon was one of the nation’s best, with the exception of the past three weeks where they’ve surrendered at least 24 points in every game. It’s possible they’ve taken a step back as the competition got more fierce, and Arizona should be able to test them as well.
While Oregon has different motivations at this time of the season, I look for them to get ahead early and keep the foot on the gas. This Wildcat defense is one of the nations's worst so it shouldn't be an issue for Oregon to continue their high-scoring ways. On the Arizona side, they have had success mixing and matching quarterbacks which isn't always going to work, but Oregon's defense has shown signs of weakness recently. I'm targeting the total here.
Pick: Over 68
Georgia at Auburn (+2.5)
O/U: 41
These Bulldogs haven't done anything spectacular recently, but now find themselves in the Top 4 of the CFP rankings. Following their heartbreaking loss to South Carolina in October, Georgia is 3-0 since and has shutout two of their last three opponents. The offense leans on Jake Fromm and Deandre Swift to make magic, and while they've been very solid of late, they'll need to step their game up in Auburn.
The Tigers are no stranger to big games, and unfortunately for them, they've haven't produced the results in said games this season. After starting the season 5-0, they've gone 2-2 since, including losses to Florida and LSU by a combined 14 points. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix has been about as good as you can expect for an 19-year-old in the SEC, but the thick of their conference schedule hasn't been easy. Defensively, they haven't surrendered more than 24 points in any game this season, which is a trend they'll need to carry on in this game if they want to take down Georgia.
Since Kirby Smart became head coach at Georgia in 2016, the Bulldogs are 9-4 against the spread as road favorites and 13-6 ATS against ranked opponents. UGA needs a big win in what is their toughest remaining game on the schedule, if they want to stay in the favor of the CFP committee.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
