RADIO
The last three weeks have been treacherous and just be sure that I'm taking the same hits you are if you're tailing me. We've reached the point where you fade what I pick here. However, these are the moments that make me work harder to find the best possible action.
- Week 6 Picks: 0-3 (0%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 10-10 (50%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NCAA schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.
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Colorado at Oregon (-21)
O/U: 58.5 *(NOTE This game is on Friday, Oct. 11 at 10pm EST)
The Buffs have been the kings of keeping games close over the past four weeks. Despite a 2-2 record, none of their games have had any higher than a seven-point differential. Their offense hasn't skipped a beat, with Steven Montez throwing for over 630 yards and four touchdowns, over the previous two. However, Colorado was without star receiver Laviska Shenault in last week's 35-30 loss to Arizona. He's still considered day-to-day, but senior Tony Brown has stepped up for 20 catches for 291 yards and three scores over the past two. Defensively, Colorado is a rotating door, allowing 31.6 points per game. It's hard not seeing a similar scenario in Week 7.
There's probably not many people that would have predicted Oregon's defense being their key to victory. They allow just around 10 points a game, which is sixth in the country. If you take out a 27-21 loss to Auburn to open the season, the Ducks haven't allowed more than seven points in any of their other four games. Offensively, Justin Herbert has done just an outstanding job with over 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns. However, each of the past two games have been conference games and Oregon has had a tough time pulling away. A 21-6 road win over Stanford, followed by a 17-7 victory over Cal at home have tested the Ducks' offense. Just last week, they were held scoreless in the first half before scoring 17 unanswered.
Oregon's defense is stout but even if they're able to get an early lead, I see Colorado being able to keep it within three scores, because they've proven to be able to put up points, with or without Shenault.
Pick: Colorado +21
South Carolina at Georgia (-24)
O/U: 52.5
Fresh off a bye, the Gamecocks are coming off their first victory over an FBS opponent, a 24-7 win over Kentucky. Prior to that, they got creamed by Missouri and Alabama, which shouldn't shock anyone. Their 30.6 points per game is skewed by the 72-10 win over Charleston Southern, as they haven't scored more than 23 in any other game this season. Ryan Hilinski is a true freshman starting at quarterback in the SEC, which is a big red flag heading into a big road game Although, South Carolina's rushing attack has pulled it's weight with 13 touchdowns, which has alleviated some stress off Hilinski.
Georgia is arguably the best team in the best team in the country, but every game they've had so far has been a cake-walk, with the exception of Notre Dame two weeks ago. Their quarterback Jake Fromm hasn't needed to be perfect, but he's been darn close with over 1,000 yards passing with eight touchdowns and no turnovers. The ground game is no joke either, as D'Andre Swift and Brian Terrien have combined for over 700 yards and eight scores. Although, however good the offense may be, the defense is just as good. Their 10.8 points allowed per game is 7th in the nation, while also holding opposing offenses to just 60 yards a game on the ground.
In their last six SEC games, Georgia has covered in all of them, including last week's 43-14 win over Tennessee. South Carolina has been on the road just once this season, so entering Sanford Stadium won't be easy for the Gamecocks. I think Georgia is quite easily able to contain the run and jump out to a big early lead. Add in that Georgia travels to play Florida in two weeks, so they'll look to be hitting on all cylinders in preparation for that matchup.
Pick: Georgia -24
Cincinnati at Houston (+7.5)
O/U: 51.5
The Bearcats just entered the ranks at No. 25 following a 27-24 win over UCF and with their remaining schedule, they have a real good shot to win out. The combo of quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren is formidable for Cincinnati, and while both put a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting them going isn't a matter of if but how soon. On the defensive side, Cincy allows 21 points per game and 322 yards of offense but keep in mind there's a 42-0 loss to Ohio State in there. Take that game out and they allow just 16.3 points per game.
Houston seemed to do just fine last week without D'Eriq King, beating North Texas 42-25. His replacement, Clayton Tune, was electric, going 16-for-20 for 124 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 100 yards on nine attempts. He's got some help with running back Patrick Carr, however, which is a big benefit for an offense that emphasizes the run. Defensively, the Cougars are a bit weak, letting up 6.9 yards per play and 32 points per contest. Since King left, this team has a chip on their shoulder and the program is out to prove they're headed in the right direction.
Dating back to last season, the total has gone over six of Houston's last seven conference games, while on the Cincy side, the over has hit just twice in their last seven AAC contests. However, the Bearcats have shown no issues being able to score over the past three weeks, and realistically, they could put up 40 themselves against Houston's defense. Alternatively, I see Houston being able to work around the Bearcats defense and put at least two touchdowns on the board. Keep in mind the total opened at 54 and I think that's a lot closer to where this one will be.
Pick: Over 51.5
