RADIO
Week 5 was very unkind to us and I really dropped the ball there. Somehow Chicago wasn't able to manhandle the Raiders and the Chiefs and Colts was just not a smart pick. Well, this week is looking up as it's an interesting card.
- Week 4 Picks: 0-4 (0%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 10-9 (53%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet. Let's get to my favorite NFL week 4 bets:
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Carolina vs Tampa Bay (+2.5)
O/U: 47.5 *(NOTE This game is being played in London at 9:30am EST)
As winners of their last three, Carolina is riding high without Cam Newton. Replacement Kyle Allen has been steady but without Christian McCaffrey, this team would be a total disaster. CMC has been having a minor back issue but it’s nothing to worry about. The biggest issue to worry about with this matchup is the jet lag on the trip over to London. Defensively, they’ve been solid of late, allowing just 19 points per game and they’re ranked the fourth best pass defense by FootballOutsiders.com.
The Buccaneers have shown a lot over the last four games. While they’re just 2-3 overall, Jameis Winston has defied the nay-sayers with his 9/2 TD/Int over the previous two games. Of course, it helps when he has Chris Godwin to throw to, who has almost 300 yards receiving with four touchdowns over the same stretch. Honestly though, who knows what to expect from Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones, except that neither is going to take over a game. Tampa Bay’s defense has been fantastic stopping the run, but the secondary continues to get torched. The 29.6 points they allow per game is one of the league’s worst.
Six of the last eight London games have went under, with last week’s Chicago/Oakland game being the first over in London since 2017. Both Carolina and Tampa Bay have some flaws in their offense, so picking up shop and moving their game five hours ahead of normal time can take it’s toll on the players.
Pick: Under 47.5
Seattle at Cleveland (+1.5)
O/U: 46
The Seahawks have one of the top offenses in football, thanks to a stout running game. With over 100 yards rushing in each of the last four games, Seattle is one of the king’s of time of possession, averaging over 33 minutes a game. To top it off, Russell Wilson has been one of the league’s best with over 1,400 yards and an NFL-leading 12 touchdowns. Defensively, the Seahawks have taken a step back over the years, but facing an inconsistent offense like Cleveland should allow Seattle to gain some ground.
The Browns really crapped the bed last week in San Francisco, as Baker Mayfield had one of the worst full-game performances by a quarterback in recent memory. His line of 8-for-22 with 100 yards and two interceptions made you cringe. In order to be successful, they need to get Nick Chubb going early and often. He has just one game over 100 yards this year, which adding in Mayfield’s struggles and it’s surprising the Browns already have two wins.
I gave Cleveland's offense the benefit of the doubt last week, but they, in fact, are bad. While they're still capable of making a splash, Mayfield's inconsistency is easy to target. Since the beginning of last year, the total has gone under in each of the Browns six non-conference games, while for Seattle, the total has split in their six games against AFC teams. Since both sides emphasize the ground game, I look at this one as a low-scoring, tight affair.
Pick: Under 46
New Orleans at Jacksonville (-1)
O/U: 43.5
The Saints are riding a three-game win streak, including the last two, at home, over Tampa Bay and Dallas. Teddy Bridgewater isn't Drew Brees, but he's been playing like it after a four-touchdown week against the Bucs. The rushing attack has been relatively stale, gaining just 117 and 122 yards, respectively, over the past two. Things won't get easier against the Jags, but the talent of Alvin Kamara is unmistakable.
Minshew Mania continues after he threw for 374 yards and two scores, while rushing for 42 more in a loss to Carolina. Keep in mind he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 1, when he took over for an injured Nick Foles. However, he's backed up with Leonard Fournette, who is playing out of his mind with over 330 rushing yards over the past two games. He'll face a stiff opponent in the Saints Defense that just held Ezekiel Elliott to only 35 yards two weeks ago. While the Jags defense is stout themselves, and they'll likely get Jalen Ramsey back this week, I don't see it being an issue.
Dating back to last year, the Saints are 5-0 outright in games against AFC opponents, while Jacksonville is 1-4 versus the NFC in the same stretch. NO also has the highest road winning percentage at 8-2 since the beginning of 2018. The illustrious Minshew is a great story, but I see New Orleans giving him fits and going into Jacksonville and winning outright.
Pick: New Orleans ML +100
Tennessee at Denver (-2)
O/U: 40.5
Over the last two weeks, Denver has gotten off to hot starts. They’ve taken a lead of six and 17 points into the past two halftimes, respectively. After earning their first win last week, the Broncos finally have some momentum. On the other sideline, the Titans are 2-3 but fresh off scoring just seven points at home against Buffalo. While Denver’s defense isn’t anywhere near that quality, the talent on the Titans offense isn’t much better.
Denver seems to be hitting a stride, and coming back home against a beatable opponent is just what their doctor ordered. The following week, they host the Chiefs, so they’re going to do everything they can to churn out a win in Week 6. I’m not so sure that things will be so easy, but after the start they got the past two weeks, I like Denver to take a lead into the locker room.
Pick: Denver 1st Half -.5
