RADIO
Somehow four touchdowns by Marvin Jones wasn't enough for the Lions to take a win against the Vikings, but nonetheless, it was a very profitable week. On a separate note, man, are the New England Patriots an absolute wagon, and something tells me you won't have to go long before seeing me target them in this article again.
- Week 7 Picks: 3-1 (75%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 15-12 (56%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Denver at Indianapolis (-5.5)
O/U: 43
The Broncos are officially looking towards the future after trading Emmanuel Sanders on Tuesday, but there’s still some decent pieces here. While Joe Flacco is still #elite (laughter ensues), Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay, and Royce Freeman give the offense hope. Despite the talent, they rank 29th in scoring (16 ppg), and 25th in total offense (317.4 ypg). Their defense took a big step back last week, with a 30-6 loss against a Chiefs team that had Matt Moore running the show for half the game. However, they previously shutout Tennessee and only gave up 13 to the Chargers a couple of weeks back.
Indianapolis is slowly becoming a dangerous team in the AFC. People are starting to respect Jacoby Brissett and his 14/3 TD/Int. However, the ground game has helped them immensely this year. At 128.7 yards rushing per game, they rank 10th in the NFL, but keep in mind that Marlon Mack has just two games, this year, with more than 74 yards on the ground, so getting him going is key. On the defensive side, they have allowed at least 23 points in four games, while also surrendering at least 324 yards in five games this year. On the plus side, they’ll likely get Malik Hooker back this week which is an enormous boost.
The Colts have had their issues with the AFC West this year, dropping games to the Chargers and Raiders, by seven and six, respectively. However, against the spread, they’re 4-1-1 this season, including covering in each of their last two. In contrast, Denver is 3-4 ATS and now working without one of their team leaders. I won’t get cute with this one, as Indy is far-and-away the better team, and should win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Indianapolis -5.5
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-2.5)
O/U: 45.5
We continue to come back to the well with Tampa Bay. They're consistently one of the more hot-and-cold teams in the league. Quarterback Jameis Winston has been significantly better on the road this season, and coming in fresh off a bye, he can put that five-interception game from two weeks ago behind him. Luckily he still has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who have been fiends this season, teaming up for over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns through just six games. The Bucs' run game has struggled mightily, but did anyone really expect Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones II to be a feasible duo?
The Titans look like a new team under quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In just one week with the former college wide receiver at the helm, Tennessee pulled off a road win, 23-20, against the Chargers. Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, and rookie A.J. Brown all gave a big boost to the offense, and while it was one game, these are positive signs for the Titans franchise. Defensively, the Titans are stout at stopping the run (3rd in DVOA) but struggle stopping the pass (23rd in DVOA), which might hurt them in this matchup.
Since the start of 2018, the total has gone over in eight of the 11 games that Tampa Bay is considered a road underdog. Winston just seems to be more comfortable on the road and combine that with coming off a bye, I think he gets right in this spot. Alternatively, the over has hit in just six of Tennessee’s 11 home games, dating back to last year. However, Tannehill has somehow boosted the offense and they should be able to move the ball against Tampa Bay’s weak defense.
Pick: Over 45.5
Philadelphia at Buffalo (-1.5)
O/U: 43.5
Philadelphia is on the latter part of three consecutive road games, and it hasn’t been pretty. After rolling past the Jets three weeks ago, they’ve dropped each of the last two by at least 18 points. Carson Wentz is bad on the road and has been throughout his career. Just last week he had three of the team’s four turnovers. His weapons around him have been average, but overall the offense is inconsistent and frankly in a bad place right now.
Bills Mafia is 5-1 and there hasn’t been this type of excitement around Buffalo’s football team in some time. Josh Allen hasn’t been outstanding with both seven touchdowns and interceptions, but his ability to scramble has made him a difficult matchup for defenses. Frank Gore continues to plod his way to productivity, but he hasn’t been as vital to the offense as receiver John Brown who is on pace for one of the best years of his career. However, the Bills’ defense is what has made them so impressive. The only team to hold New England to less than 30 points, Buffalo has a top-five pass defense, which should be able to exploit Wentz’s shortcomings.
The Eagles are 1-3 on the road this year, and I’ll trust those struggles to continue. Meanwhile, Buffalo hasn't been great against the spread as home favorites, going 1-4 ATS dating back to last season. However, at a spread this low, and what we’ve seen so far, I like the Bills chances to win a close game at home.
Pick: Buffalo -1.5
Cleveland at New England (-13)
O/U: 45.5
The Patriots remain a dynasty, going through continuous dress rehearsals up until the playoffs when football becomes “real.” Let’s be honest, with the emergence of their defense, there isn’t a team even close to them right now. They’ve scored at least 30 points in every game but one, and the defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game, including two shutouts.
Tom Brady is eight yards shy of 2,000 yards already, and while the running game hasn’t been a very dependable backbone like in the past, an NFL leading 32 ppg speaks for itself. On the other sideline, Cleveland carries a bottom-half defense and allows around 26 points per contest. This Browns team continues to underproduce and I expect Bill Belichick to come in and take full advantage of that.
Pick: New England Team Total Over 29
