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We're back with a special edition of betting picks for your Thanksgiving Day entertainment. There's nothing like big meals, football, and gambling that makes you forget about going to work everyday. So if you're lucky enough to have a day or two off of work, let's kick back, put on your biggest sweatpants, and enjoy all that life has to offer.
- Week 12 Picks: 2-2 (50%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 23-24 (49%)
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Chicago at Detroit (+3)
O/U: 38.5
Chicago played the New York Giants just a few days ago, and unsurprisingly they earned a win. However, we weren't really able to learn much that we didn't already know; the defense is one of the best in the league, and the offense will need extra prayers to score on offense. Mitch Trubisky threw for 278 yards with a score on the ground and through the air, which was just enough for the Bears. However, if Allen Robinson gets shut down, there’s just no chance for this offense. Luckily they house the 4th ranked defense, in terms of DVOA, so the unit is able to make up for any ineptitude on offense.
Going into Week 12, many believed in the fact that Jeff Driskel might actually be a feasible option for the Lions. Well, if a loss to the Redskins doesn’t help you make up your mind, I’m not sure what will. Now he's dealing with a hamstring injury and David Blough is taking first-team reps at practice. If Driskel would miss the game, that means Bo Scarbrough and the Lions run game gets to carry the offense, which is less than favorable against the Bears.
At the beginning of the season, this might’ve looked like a fantastic Thanksgiving Day matchup for the NFL, but things have gone horribly wrong for both teams. Although, Chicago is 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 against the Lions, including covering in the last three matchups. With the state of these two offenses, you can easily make a case for the under on a short week, but I believe the Bears Defense will take this one over and the Bears win by a touchdown.
Pick: Chicago -3
Buffalo at Dallas (-6.5)
O/U: 46.5
Bills Mafia is on the road to the playoffs, sitting at 8-3, and winners of four of their last six. They’ve totaled 424 yards of offense in each of their last two games. However, consider that their opponents were the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos before getting carried away. Josh Allen has been a solid dual-threat option the entire season, and he’s commanding the attention of opposing defenses. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary and Frank Gore have provided a solid complement for the offense. Defensively, Buffalo struggles to stop the run, but has one of the top pass defenses. If you’re a scoreboard watcher, they’ve allowed just 20 points or more three times this season, and oddly enough, two of those times came from the Dolphins.
The Dallas Cowboys might be a good team, but they also might not be. Their 6-5 record is disguised by two wins apiece over the Redskins and Giants, along with other victories over the Dolphins and Lions. However, they’ve fallen to the Saints, Packers, Jets, Vikings, and Patriots; notice a pattern? It should be pretty obvious by now that the coaching staff doesn’t know how to effectively use Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper, and going forward those three will need to be on the field and producing or this Cowboys team is in some serious trouble.
I’m targeting the total here. Throughout this season both teams have had very different outcomes. Dallas has seen the over hit seven times in 11 games, while the total has gone under in eight of Buffalo’s 11 games. However, on a short week, I think both teams keep it on the ground and play the time of possession game.
Pick: Under 46.5
New Orleans at Atlanta (+7)
O/U: 49
I’m going the prop route in this one, mainly because the spread and total seem about right to me. New Orleans is 9-2 and surprisingly one of their losses was to the Falcons three weeks ago.
Matt Ryan has seemed a bit off since returning from an ankle injury in Week 10. The 34-year-old has thrown for over 275 yards just once in the last three weeks, and that was without Austin Hooper (knee). Add to that that Ryan may now have a limited Julio Jones (shoulder). Then consider that the Saints Defense ranks 11th in passing DVOA, combined with the fact that they’ve allowed just one opposing quarterback to throw for over 280 yards since Week 3. I am not expecting Ryan to go nuts in this one.
Pick: Matt Ryan Under 280.5 Passing Yards
