RADIO
We spend all week looking at rosters, reading articles, listening to podcasts and researching the best combination of players to ensure our lineups are perfect on Sunday. But why? How many times have you put together the perfect lineup? One that you are completely happy with after the matchup is sealed and set in stone. Kickoff comes on Sunday and we get excited for a day full of football, but more times than not, we spend the day sweating about who is getting the most targets, if one of our players left the field and those darn holding calls that wiped out a long touchdown run.
For fantasy football owners, Sundays are the most exciting and most frustrating day of the week. We can’t wait for Sundays to arrive, but also can’t wait for them to be over. 2017 may have the most frustrating start to a season that I can remember in recent years. Injuries to star players like David Johnson and Allen Robinson came early, Odell Beckham Jr. finally made his “healthy debut” in Week 3 and the ineffective bug has gotten to Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy and Amari Cooper. It’s tough being a fantasy football owner right now with how unpredictable the season has become. That’s why we keep coming back for more though. As upset that we may get over a one-point effort put up by Jeremy Maclin, we are even more thrilled about a 28-point effort from Marcedes Lewis.
We are three weeks into the season. 0-3 can become 3-3 very fast if you keep chasing that perfect lineup. If you’re not interested in making that comeback, then 0-6 can happen in no time and you're setting yourself up to draft Saquon Barkley first overall in 2018. If your team has been ineffective and you’re off to a slow start, then it’s time to start making moves (I’ll be writing more about that in an upcoming article.)
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#TrendingUp
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
The Panthers are learning quickly their offense cannot run through Cam Newton anymore. Newton has been awful this year as he’s currently sporting a 61% completion rate and after a three-interception performance against New Orleans' terrible secondary, he has twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. To boot, he’s been sacked 10 times already in three games. Losing Greg Olsen was a big blow to this offense and now Kelvin Benjamin could be missing some time, although the team is relieved there is no structural damage to his knee. The only way the Panthers will be successful this year is to get rid of the ball fast, and that is where Christian McCaffrey comes in.
Some of McCaffrey’s value is capped because Jonathan Stewart is still receiving a bulk of the carries and has been more successful in the run game. However, McCaffrey has been leading the way in targets out of the backfield and solidified that with a huge game this weekend, hauling in nine receptions for 101 yards. He saw 11 targets which led the team and has now seen 23 targets in three games. There is no one better suited to help this offense on the Panthers roster then McCaffrey, and they will be leaning on him even more moving forward. If you need a RB1 right now, then McCaffrey is not the guy. If you need a PPR flex play or even a RB2 on some weekends, McCaffrey could be a huge asset to your team. Don’t let people saying Newton is washed up deter you from playing McCaffrey, because Newton being washed up is exactly why McCaffrey is going to become so valuable.
Ameer Abdullah (RB, DET)
I will admit, Ameer Abdullah’s numbers are not eye-catching. Abdullah has yet to surpass the century mark in a single game this season, is only averaging 3.54 yards per carry and hasn’t found the end zone this season. Yes, you can question why in the world I would include a guy with these numbers in the #TrendingUp portion of the article, but we are seeing something in Detroit that we haven’t seen in a long time. The Lions, for the first time in a while, are actually committed to running the football. Before suffering a season ending injury last year, Abdullah only had 18 carries in two games. In his rookie year of 2015, when he played in 16 games, Abdullah only averaged nine carries per game. So far, Abdullah is averaging 15 carries a game in 2017. These changes do not reap rewards overnight; it takes a little bit of time to change a mindset that has been pass-first for so long in Detroit.
The Lions have a tough match up in Week 4 against the Vikings, who are third in rushing defense right now, but then they face the Panthers (14th), Saints (24th), Steelers (22nd), Packers (21st) and Browns (13th) for the next five weeks. If the Lions are truly committed to the running the ball, which it appears they are, then these are some appealing contests for the offense to really find a groove. Abdullah owners who may be underwhelmed with his current numbers, and haven’t read this article, could give you a discount. You have to act early though and trust the Lions process, which is probably very hard to do. They are going to continue to run the ball and the offense will continue to make strides towards being a truly balanced offense.
#TrendingDown
Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)
In my Week 3 Dynasty Match up Analysis I wrote about Isaiah Crowell and the Browns match up with the Indianapolis Colts. There was not going to be a better time for the Browns to truly commit to a running game and work to establish it with Crowell. Once again though, Hue Jackson bailed on the run game early and let his rookie QB throw the ball 47 times in what turned out to be a three-point game. Crowell hasn’t been awful outside his Week 1 performance. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry against Baltimore and Indianapolis and while the Baltimore game was a blowout that caused the Browns to start throwing, the Colts game didn’t flow the same way. Crowell had 10 of his 12 carries in the first half. That’s right, Crowell only had two carries the entire second half of the game.
Honestly, this has nothing to do with Crowell, but has everything to do with questionable play-calling and game plans. Through three games, DeShone Kizer has thrown the ball 108 times, which ranks ninth in the NFL. Since 2010, only four rookie quarterbacks have ranked in the top 10 of passing attempts in a season (Carson Wentz, Derek Carr, Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford) and had a combined record of 28-36. If the Browns want to rely on Kizer all year, the outcome isn’t going to be great. If fantasy owners have to rely on Crowell all year, they will likely see the same results. Dynasty owners can wait and hope that Crowell makes his way onto a better offense in 2018.
Martavis Bryant (WR, PIT)
After serving a suspension for the entire 2016 season, Martavis Bryant was finally reinstated April 24th. When you have an offense that features Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, it easy to be excited about the potential for big plays from Bryant. Too bad the Steelers offense has been inconsistent to start the season and Bryant has been caught up in those same issues. Outside of Bryant’s three catches for 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, he has been ineffective. The targets are coming his way, and if you target a player enough, he’s going to make plays sooner or later. The Steelers offense is too good to be held down this long, but they have some tough defensive teams coming up soon.
It’s hard to rely on a guy whose value is almost entirely drawn from big plays and touchdowns. It’s okay to sprinkle those players into your roster, but counting on them to provide WR1 or even WR2 stats is a bit much. In 2015, Bryant finished as WR33 in standard scoring, where guys like him tend to carry a little more value. In dynasty formats, Brown seems to get a bad rap because of the uncertainty around Ben Roethlisberger, but if you’re not willing to bet on Brown, there is no way you are betting on Bryant. Find the Steelers fan in your league, remind him of all the untapped potential in Bryant and then trade him away.
