Trevor Williams (SP, PIT) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 250

CURRENT ADP: ~390 overall

ANALYSIS: After being acquired by the Pirates from the Marlins in 2015, Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Trevor Williams made his MLB debut in 2016 and then pitched 150 1/3 innings in 2017.  His 7-7 record and 4.36 ERA in 99 first half innings in 2018 led many to just see Williams as a middling option at starting pitcher, not much to watch for fantasy purposes. Then, in 71 1/3 second-half innings, Williams allowed just 11 earned runs, 57 hits, and posted a 7-3 record and 1.07 WHIP. While his 14-10 record and 3.11 ERA (as well as his 1.18 WHIP) for the season were nice, his second-half performance won fantasy titles for many owners in weekly leagues.

Since Williams' 2018 season was so firmly split between the first half and second half, all analysis on his season must be centered around the differences in each half. In the first 35 1/3 innings of 2018, Williams posted a 2.29 ERA and, while he had just 23 strikeouts and 17 walks, was firmly on the fantasy radar because of his low ERA. Then he had a 5.51 ERA in May and 5.32 ERA in June, allowing 10 home runs over the two months. While the ratios may have not been there, Williams did have a season-low 15.9% line drive rate in June, as well as a 25.4% soft hit ball rate that was above average, and a 47.8% GB rate.

The best part of Williams: his ADP is 388, so he likely will not be drafted in most leagues. There are worse things to do with the last pick of your draft then get a starter that had a sub-1.50 ERA in the second half. This could be the biggest sleeper leading into 2019, as the changes he made at the end of 2018 could make him a SP3/SP4-type pitcher in 2019.