Trey Lyles (PF, UTA) - NBA Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add for Short Term PTS/REB in Deeper Leagues

OWNED IN: 4% of Yahoo! Leagues

ANALYSIS: Jazz rookie forward Trey Lyles followed up a nice 16 point performance in Portland on Wednesday with career highs of 19 points and 39 minutes against the Sacramento Kings on Thursday. Sounds like yet another up-and-coming rookie from this crazy draft class, right? Hold onto your horses a bit.

Lyles does have deep league value as a source of points and rebounding in the short term while veteran power forwards Derrick Favors (back) and Trevor Booker (concussion) are out, in the same way that anyone lined up to play over 30 minutes a game has value in deep leagues. However, in standard or shallow leagues you have to be a bit more discerning than that. Lyles's last two scoring performances came with unsustainably hot shooting (14 for 20, including 3 for 5 from downtown) against a couple of bottom tier defenses (the Trailblazers and Kings). Further, aside from scoring, he didn't even do much of anything else, with a total of 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 0 blocks combined.

Consider Lyles's per 36 minute stats on the season rather than in the last two games to get a more accurate picture of what's he's likely to produce -- he is shooting for a .425 FG% and a .613 FT%, with averages of 8.9 PTS, 8.1 REB, 1.4 AST, 0.7 3PM, 0.6 STL, 0.4 BLK, and 1.3 TOV.  That is good in exactly two categories -- rebounds and turnovers.  The FG% is terrible for a power forward, the FT% is low impact but definitely not helpful, and the output in blocks is downright pitiful for a guy who is 6'10".

While you could project a bit better than that in scoring and threes given the added comfort of being in the NBA for a few months now, as well as the added opportunity of being asked to play a bigger role in the minutes he's playing, I don't think that's enough to give him standard league value.  Remember, before these two hot games, he just wrapped up a four game stretch with over 30 minutes a game where he averaged a dreadful .348 FG%, .250 FT%, 4.5 PTS, 8.0 REB, 1.8 AST, 0.3 3PM, 1.3 STL, 0.5 BLK, and 1.3 TO. He didn't improve as a player that much over the last two games.

BOTTOM LINE: Add away in super deep leagues where any numbers are good numbers, but don't sacrifice a roster spot in standard or shallow leagues to chase his two recent hot shooting performances. His only standard league use is as a streaming source of rebounds for Saturday's game against the Lakers in H2H matchups where you're not worried about the other categories.