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On the opening night of the NFL Draft, pins could be heard dropping all across the NFL landscape as the Tennessee Titans traded A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles for the rights to the 18th and 101st overall selections. Moments later, wide receiver Treylon Burks was chosen as his replacement.
While it did come as a surprise to many, it was something everyone should have all seen it coming with how outrageous the wide receiver salaries had become compared to the norm this offseason with NFL teams trading their star wideouts and their new teams seemingly handing them monopoly money.
Although this year's rookie class may not have had the prior star power of Ja'Marr Chase, some very good receivers were selected in Round One. Some of them step into relatively unknown situations with unproven quarterbacks or a crowded wide receiver room. Burks faces no such problem as he already has an established veteran quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and goes to an offense that currently has 351 vacated targets up for grabs this Fall.
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Player Profile
Team: Tennessee Titans
College: Arkansas
Height/Weight: 6-2. 225 lbs
Measurables: 33 1/2" arms. 9 7/8" hands
Drafted: Round 1, Pick 18 (2022)
College Production
| Year | Class | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rush Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2019 | FR | 11 | 29 | 475 | 16.4 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| 2020 | SO | 9 | 51 | 820 | 16.1 | 7 | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| 2021 | JR | 12 | 66 | 1104 | 16.7 | 11 | 14 | 112 | 8.0 | 1 |
A local recruit, Burks was rated as a 4-star and had offers from Florida State, LSU, and Ole Miss before deciding to stay in his home state and enroll at Arkansas. He is a physical, big-boded receiver with the speed to be a matchup nightmare against opposing cornerbacks. He is also versatile with lining up and can play outside, as well as in the slot.
Burks produced exceptionally well in college. During his three years at Arkansas, he had as many as seven different starting quarterbacks and produced against the best competition in the SEC and did so in an offense with a very tiny passing pie. Arkansas ranked 115 of 130 in pass attempts for the 2021 season and 92nd in 2020. To put this in perspective: programs like Purdue, USC, Pittsburgh, Alabama, and Ohio State threw 14-20 more passes per game than Arkansas did!
If we are comparing the production of Burks to his peers like Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Drake London, that matters for the sake of context. It's also important to note that Burks got better every year in college in all areas, which would suggest that he is ready to take things to the next level and pick up right where he left off.
While many were disappointed with Burks posting a 4.50 forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he checks off just about every box when it comes to metrics that an analyst is looking for:
- 3.9 yards per route run (highest in the 2022 class)
- Early-declare (just turned 22 years old this spring)
- First-round draft capital
- Solid aggregate film grade
- Accounted for 40% of his team's passing yards in college
- 15.7%, 25.0%, and 29.3% target share in three seasons at Arkansas
According to Marvin Elequin of the Fantasy Footballers, Burks is only one of nine first-round prospects since 2010 who averaged 2.50 receiving yards per team pass attempt, as well as a 30% weighted Dominator rating. The only other prospects who did so are Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon, Amari Cooper, Corey Davis, and Rashod Bateman. Pretty good company to say the least.
2022 Fantasy Outlook
As mentioned above, Burks steps into a role where he has the chance to become the number one target immediately with the Titans having 351 vacated targets from the prior season. The only other established pass catchers on the roster are Robert Woods and Austin Hooper. Woods is 30 and coming off of major knee surgery while Hooper is coming off of two down-seasons with the Browns.
The Titans have primarily been a run-heavy team over the last few years, but there is no guarantee that Derrick Henry can keep up such a workload at age 28. Burks is a fabulous runner in the open field and excels at making plays after the catch. While it was mentioned earlier that his forty time underwhelmed some at the combine; on tape, there wasn't anyone who was really able to run down Burks from behind. What stands out is he averaged over 16 yards per reception during his college career and made some big plays down the field. His home run ability is a great compliment to someone like Tannehill as the Titans' offense has generally thrived in the play-action passing game.
In redraft, Burks is currently ranked between the WR38 and WR54 in redraft rankings and is going in about the 10-12th Round of redrafts. While these rankings are only preliminary and won't reflect later ADP in August during the heart of redraft season, it is important to see where players are going in mock drafts to get an overall determination of value.
2022 Rookie Drafts & Dynasty Outlook
Burks is currently going in the first half of rookie drafts (in all formats) usually between picks 1.03 and 1.06. He is in Tier 1 of rookie wide receivers along with Drake London and Garrett Wilson. The following below is a list of all of the wide receivers who went in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft:
| Pick | Player | College | Team |
| 1.08 | Drake London | USC | Atlanta Falcons |
| 1.10 | Garrett Wilson | Ohio State | New York Jets |
| 1.11 | Chris Olave | Ohio State | New Orleans Saints |
| 1.12 | Jameson Williams | Alabama | Detroit Lions |
| 1.16 | Jahan Dotson | Penn State | Washington Commanders |
| 1.18 | Treylon Burks | Arkansas | Tennessee Titans |
| 2.34 | Christian Watson | North Dakota St. | Green Bay Packers |
| 2.43 | Wan'Dale Robinson | Kentucky | New York Giants |
| 2.44 | John Metchie III | Alabama | Houston Texans |
| 2.50 | Tyquan Thornton | Baylor | New England Patriots |
| 2.52 | George Pickens | Georgia | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2.53 | Alec Pierce | Cincinnati | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2.54 | Skyy Moore | Western Mich | Kansas City Chiefs |
Right now, Burks is being valued as the WR19 on Keep-Trade-Cut and 51st overall in Superflex Dynasty and 37th overall in 1QB leagues. The value appears to be there with drafting him. While the perception among many is that the Titans don't like to pass the ball, offensive philosophy can change quickly in the NFL. Being that the Titans traded A.J. Brown to get the pick to select Burks, it would appear that they will do everything in their power to get him opportunities to make plays and justify the trade.
Conclusion
Burks will have a solid mentor in Robert Woods who will pass along his knowledge of route running, finding holes in the zone, and getting off of man coverage. His outlook is high for 2022 being that he goes to a team that should let him see the field right away. He is a smash with upside in all rookie drafts and dynasty startups but is someone who could be a sneaky Year One value in redraft leagues as well.
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