RADIO
Turning Two: Who Will Hit 50 HR?
Welcome, Rotoballers! Having trouble surviving without fantasy sports? (No offense, basketball). We've got just the remedy to prepare you for the upcoming baseball season with our new segment, Turning Two.
So what is Turning Two? Turning Two is a weekly segment where fellow Rotoballers JB Branson and Max Petrie will be tackling various topics (Who will hit 50 HR? Who will win 20 games? How does Fredi Gonzalez still have a job?) that relate to the upcoming 2016 season. We will each take on three candidates for the topic at hand. Afterward we will each address the other's predictions and whether or not we agree. Basically JB will call Max a moron and we'll move right along.
For our initial piece, we'll start with something exciting; the long ball. Chicks dig that, right? Will someone hit 50 home runs this year? It's only been done twice in the past six seasons (Jose Bautista - 2010 ; Chris Davis - 2013) so we're not going six-for-six with our predictions, but here's a few candidates to fit the bill.
Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!
Max's Three:
Bryce Harper (WSH - OF)
Can you guess who got first pick in the player pool? Call me a front-runner, I don't care. This list is incomplete without the reigning NL MVP, plain and simple. At age 22, Harper hit 42 homers with a league-leading .649 slugging percentage while his 27.3% HR/FB rate was tops in the National League. The scariest part about all this is Harper has yet to hit his "prime" in baseball terms and has plenty of room for growth.
If there's reason for concern pertaining Harper hitting 50, it's his surrounding cast. The Nationals were an infirmary in 2015 and the projected bats to protect Harper (Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth) might as well be my car: old and unreliable. Should either miss time, it's difficult to envision Harper getting the pitch selection to crack 50. Regardless, you won't find me betting against the best 23-year old in baseball.
JB: Max mentions the 27.3 HR/FB% above, but fails to articulate the amount of luck this stat portrays. Harpers previous season high was 18.0%. He also had never hit more than 23 HR in a season at any level prior to 2015. This was ALSO the first time in his career that he owned lower than a 1.0 GB/FB ratio. Despite what he did in high school with an aluminum bat while making the cover of Sports Illustrated Magazine, I am not sold on Harper as a monster power hitter at the Major League level. He couldn't even keep up that level of power for a whole season. In the 2nd half he hit 10 less HR, his SLG dropped from .704 to .586, and his ISO from .365 to .266. He is an unbelievable player, yes. But I think the 42 HR in 2015 is the most we will see out of Harper.
Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B)
Arenado came with a hefty price tag in 2015 drafts, but he delivered on those expectations, smashing 42 HR and finishing as the No. 10 overall player in Yahoo! leagues. You'd figure playing in Coors would inflate his power numbers, but he actually hit more HR on the road than at Coors. The one alarming figure is the measly five HR versus LHP and .191 average versus lefties on the road.
The Rockies lineup is in a bit of turmoil, with the Jose Reyes domestic assault case in the air and Carlos Gonzalez trade rumors abound (my guess: they keep CarGo till the July deadline). Those external factors could play a factor into Arenado's success. He hit .254 with no one on and .330 with men on base. I'm not sweating losing Reyes, but should the Rockies retain CarGo and add another bat (Gerardo Parra?), Arenado will be in a prime spot to improve his HR totals at the age of 25.
JB: Okay, I like this pick. Arenado is more likely to make Max look smart than Harper because there is less luck and more trends in Arenado's numbers. He plays half of his games in Coors Field. Even though he did hit two less HR at home than away, he still owned a higher SLG and ISO at home. His 42 bombs in 2015 came with a much more respectable 18.5 HR/FB%, and he's been hitting more fly balls and less ground balls each season since 2013. This strange Jose Abreu-esque lefty split might be his crutch, however. He has to improve his .444 SLG and .178 ISO versus LHP if he is going to reach the 50 HR mark, especially playing in the same division as Madison Bumgarner, and a possible five man southpaw rotation in Los Angeles led by the best in the league, Clayton Kershaw.
Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B, OF)
Here's my stretch pick of the group. Bryant, 24, was a revelation in securing the Cubs first playoff appearance since 2008, hitting 26 HR in his rookie season. For comparisons sake, Harper hit 22 HR his rookie year. Bryant will have another year under his belt and will have a full year of Kyle Schwarber protecting him in the lineup, which should only help improve that number.
Bryant has the skill set to reach the 50 HR plateau; he hit 43 HR in two minor-league levels in 2014 (594 AB). Reaching the 50 HR mark before the age of 25 is no easy task. It's only been done five times in the live-ball era (Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ralph Kiner, Prince Fielder) and only once in the past 60 years (Fielder). If someone is going to crack the group, I'll take my chances on Bryant and Harper doing it.
JB: I agree this one is a stretch. Going from a .213 ISO and .488 SLG to a 50 HR guy in one offseason would be quite miraculous for a second-year man. He did hit a ton of HR in the minors, but in his rookie season only had 62 XBH. This is going to sound very odd, but Bryant is too good of a hitter to be a 50 HR member with as much as he strikes out. Told you, but let me explain. Bryant had the most K by a rookie, ever (199), and owned a miserable 16.5 SwStr%. But at the same time, surprisingly drew a bunch of walks and hit a bunch of singles, leading to a respectable OBP (.369) and BA (.275). If you are going to strike out at a Chris Davis-like rate, and want to hit Chris Davis-like HR totals, you can't be messing around worrying about getting on base and being a team player! Which is why Kris Bryant won't hit 50 HR, because he is too good of a hitter- that also strikes out 199 times.
JB's Three:
Chris Davis (FA - 1B)
It is kind of unfair to pick a guy who has already been a member of the 50 HR club, but Max picked first and had his chance. Crush Davis hit 53 HR just three seasons ago, and only missed it by three this year. But sandwiched in between those two seasons was the horrific 2014 where he hit only 26 HR with a .196 BA. Usually that kind of inconsistency barring injury would scare off such hefty predictions. But there is a perfectly good explanation in Davis' case.
In 2013 and 2015, he filed for a medical exemption with the league to gain permission for the use of Adderall. In those two seasons, he "crushed" the ball. In 2014, however, he did not file for the exemption, and was banned from using the drug for the entire season. If you look at the two "Adderall" seasons, the numbers are almost identical. 53 and 47 HR, 0.71 and 0.73 GB/FB, 29.6 and 29.4 HR/FB%, and 41.3 and 41.4 Hard%. It is safe to say that Davis won't make the same mistake again that he did in 2014, and there is no reason to believe he won't be right at the 50 HR threshold again in 2016. This one's a lock!
Max: As JB mentions, this pick is flawed since Davis is already in the 50 HR club, but we'll let it slide. The case for Davis is contingent on his landing spot this offseason. The Orioles have refused to budge on their 7-yr/$150M offer, which has led to Davis' agent Scott Boras pitching his client as a corner outfielder. Leaving Camden Yards would be a huge blow to Davis' chances at 50 HR. Camden Yards had the highest HR% for LHB (4.12%) according to Rotogrinders. The Tigers, a team recently mentioned as a potential Davis landing spot, ranked 16th. If Davis finds himself back in Baltimore, I'll stand by JB's pick.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA - OF)
There is no power in the MLB like Giancarlo Stanton's. Since 2012, he leads the league in HR with distances over 450 feet. In 2015, 25 of his HR were hit at a speed over 100 mph, and he led the league in Hard Hit % with a ridiculous 49.7%.
Honestly, if it were not for a fractured hamate bone in his wrist, Stanton would already be a member of the 50 HR club. He played less than a half of the season in 2015 (318 PA), and still smacked 27 HR. That equates to a HR every 11.78 PA, which if carried over to a 600 PA season, equals 50 HR. Oh, and did I mention that the Marlins are not only shortening their fences, but also bringing them in closer to home plate in 2016? We might be writing about a new HR Club just for Stanton next off season, IF he can just stay healthy.
Here is just a small taste of what Stanton can do to a baseball; hit at 118 MPH, and never reaching a height of over 35 feet.
Max: This pick hinges on five magical words: "If he can stay healthy." Stanton has eclipsed 504 plate appearances once in the past four years, with injuries ranging from a broken hamate bone to multiple facial fractures from a fastball in 2014. If not for the hamate bone injury last season, he may already be in the 50 HR club. He hit 27 HR in 318 PA (74 games) with a ridiculous .341 ISO, third in the league if he met the PA minimum. Factor in the emergence of Justin Bour to provide Stanton with protection in that lineup and Stanton should finally reach the 50 HR club, barring another injury.
Miguel Sano (MIN- 3B)
I see your Kris Bryant reach, and I raise you one Miguel Sano. After missing all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery, Sano was called up in July and hit 18 HR in his first taste of the big leagues. He will be an annual competitor for the league leading strikeout man, as his 35.5 K% in 2015 was highest among all players with at least 300 PA. But when Sano does make contact, he isn't blooping singles around. His 43.2 Hard% was second to only the previously mentioned Stanton. Pitchers already fear this kid, as he saw the third lowest percentage of fastballs of any player.
The Twins are willing to try Sano in LF this season, to ensure he gets as many at bats as he can handle. They know the raw power that he possesses, which has drawn comparisons to Jose Bautista, who coincidentally hit 54 HR in 2010. Unlike Bryant, Sano's profile fits much better for a 50 HR Club member. His approach at the plate reminds me a lot of Adam Dunn, with his three outcome potential. He will strikeout, draw a walk, or hit a HR. If Sano doesn't eclipse the big five-oh in 2016, he most certainly will at some point in his career.
Max: This is a good reach, but the case against Sano reaching 50 HR is similar to JB's for Harper. Sano's 26.5 HR/FB% was outstanding, a stat that would've placed Sano fourth among MLB if he met the PA minimum. It's difficult to envision Sano replicating that success in his sophmore campaign. His HR high in the minors was 35 across two levels, but I'm not holding that against him. My problem is he strikes out a bit too much. His 35.5 K% would have easily been the worst in baseball if he qualified and his whiff/swing rate was 57% against breaking pitches according to Brooks Baseball. That's awful. Given his swing tendencies, his .396 BABIP is in line for a heavy drop. Look for pitchers to hone in on these tendencies and feed him plenty of junk. JB mentions an Adam Dunn comparison. Sano hits to more fields than Dunn did, but keep in mind Dunn never surpassed 46 HR. Sano should easily hit 30 HR, but 50 HR seems too far out at this point in his career.
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