RADIO
The year of the no-hitter is back on after Tyler Gilbert's no-no against the Padres last weekend. It was the eighth no-hitter of the year, and the first this season to be thrown by a rookie. And while Gilbert isn't in this week's column, we'll be taking a look at a bunch of rookie pitchers in line for two-starts in Week 22.
But first let's recap the last two weeks. J.A. Happ was the clear winner out of Week 20's column, going 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.857 WHIP while striking out seven over 11 2/3 innings of work. And in Week 21, Antonio Senzatela is the frontrunner after holding the Padres to two runs over seven innings with two strikeouts in a no-decision.
And now lets get to Week 22's rookie-packed two-start streamers.
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Week 22 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Nick Pivetta, BOS - 51% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs MIN, @ CLE
Pivetta has been somewhat inconsistent all season long, as he currently sports a 9-6 record, 4.43 ERA and 1.286 WHIP with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate over 126 innings of work. His last four starts highlight that inconsistency perfectly, as in that span he has two outings in which he allowed a combined seven runs over 6 1/3 innings of work, while in the other two starts he's allowed a total of one run over 12 innings.
He'll open up the week at home against the Twins, who have been hitting fairly well over their last 10 games by slashing .239/.336/.408 while averaging 4.6 runs per game. This will likely be Pivetta's toughest matchup of the week, because while the Twins are hitting slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.242 average) than against lefties (.246), the Twins have a far better OPS against right-handers (.751) than against left-handers (.735). What could provide a slight boost in Pivetta's favor though is that the Twins are striking out at a higher rate against righties (25.5%) than against lefties (23.1%).
His second outing of the week will figure to be a much better matchup for Pivetta, as he is pitching much better this year on the road (3.56 ERA, 1.142 WHIP) than at home (5.37 ERA, 1.442 WHIP). Cleveland has hit better at home this year (.237/.307/.410) than on the road (.228/.293/.394), and they have been hitting well recently with a .224/.317/.408 triple-slash line over their last 10 games. But they are also hitting slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.232/.296/.401, 23.4 K%) than against lefties (.234/.306/.402, 22.9 K%).
Pivetta is a bit of a risky play this week just based on his inconsistency alone. And then the matchups here aren't necessarily the best possible starts for him. However, he should be in line for a good week of strikeout value, and so he should be targeted by managers who are looking for help in that area.
Josiah Gray, WSN - 36% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ MIA, @ NYM
One of the centerpieces of the deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles, Gray has gotten off to a decent start in his Nationals career, going 0-1 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.045 WHIP and 24.4 percent strikeout rate over 22 innings. He's now posted back-to-back quality starts against Atlanta and Toronto, where he's allowed a combined total of five runs over 12 innings with 10 strikeouts.
First up on his slate are the Marlins, who are slashing .257/.314/.413 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over their last 10 games. However those stats are buoyed by a 14-10 win over the Cubs last Friday, as since then they are slashing .223/.263/.345 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the following six games. But that being said, Gray will be on the wrong side of their splits, as the Marlins are hitting better against right-handed pitching (.239/.306/.380) than against left-handers (.234/.297/.376), plus they are hitting better at home (.242/.308/.372) than on the road (.233/.299/.386). Although along with that Gray should have plenty of strikeout value, as the Marlins' 26.1 percent strikeout rate is the second-highest in the majors.
He'll close out the week on the road again, this time in New York against a struggling Mets offense that is slashing .251/.301/.364 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over their last 10 games — and they've done even worse over their last six games where they're slashing .206/.261/.299 and averaging 3.2 runs per game. The Mets have hit slightly better this year at home (.237/.319/.365) than on the road (.233/.306/.391), but they are hitting worse against right-handed pitching (.232/.308/.379, 26.5 K%) than against left-handers (.242/.323/.379, 24.2 K%).
Gray is a pitcher on the rise who will have a couple of solid matchups against struggling offenses. He's looked good so far in Washington, and if he puts up another pair of good outings this week, managers should consider rostering him full time going forward.
Week 22 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Tylor Megill, NYM - 25% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs SFG, vs WSN
Megill has put up some solid numbers in his rookie season with the Mets, going 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.161 WHIP and 25.9 percent strikeout rate over 56 innings of work. He'll open up Week 22 with what appears to be a tough matchup against the red-hot Giants, who are slashing .271/.331/.456 and averaging 5.0 runs per game over their last 10 games. However the Giants are hitting worse on the road (.234/.308/.428) than at home (.260/.344/.447), plus Megill just stymied the Giants in his last start at San Francisco, where he held them to one run while striking out six over six innings of work. He'll end the week against another offense on a hot streak in Washington, as they are slashing .268/.349/.401 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. But this should be a nice matchup for Megill as well, as the Nationals are hitting worse against right-handed pitching this year (.253/.323/.406) and they're also hitting worse on the road (.251/.326/.399) than at home (.264/.338/.433).
Despite the fact he's facing two of the hotter offenses in the league as of late, it appears that Megill could be in line for a couple of nice outings in Week 22. Megill is likely the option in this column with the highest ceiling and the lowest floor, but he's worth the risk this week.
Bailey Ober, MIN - 4% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ BOS, vs MIL
After a rough stretch in June and early July, Ober is looking quite a bit better on the mound lately with a 2.81ERA, 1.130 WHIP and 23.3 percent strikeout rate over his last five starts. He'll open the week against the Red Sox, who have been red-hot over their last 10 games by slashing .299/.381/.513 and averaging 6.8 runs per game. Those numbers were boosted significantly thanks to a pair of blowout victories against the Rays (20-8) and the Orioles (16-2). The Red Sox are hitting slightly worse against right-handers this year (.256/.320/.446), but they are hitting much better at home (.276/.342/.465) than on the road (.243/.306/.420). He'll face another hot-hitting team to close out the week with Milwaukee, as they are slashing .309/.360/.532 and averaging 6.1 runs per game over their last 10 games. Ober will have some help in that the Brewers are hitting slightly worse against right-handers this year (.233/.316/.400) and have the eighth-worst strikeout rate in the majors at 24.4 percent, but the Brewers are hitting far better on the road (.248/.328/.419) than at home (.217/.308/.379).
This is a pair of tough matchups for Ober, with Boston likely proving to be the more difficult outing for him. That Milwaukee matchup could end up being a decent start for Ober, and for managers looking for strikeout help in deeper leagues, Ober is a guy that should be targeted.
Eli Morgan, CLE - 3% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs TEX, vs BOS
Rounding out this rookie-packed column, Morgan has started to turn things around in the month of August, where he's posted three quality starts in four outings with a 3.52 ERA, 1.043 WHIP and 22.1 percent strikeout rate across 23 innings. He'll open up the week against a struggling Texas squad that is slashing .219/.255/.377 and averaging 3.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. They're also hitting far worse against right-handers (.219/.289/.371) than against lefties (.231/.286/.365), and they're hitting far worse on the road (.213/.281/.352) than at home (.232/.296/.386). Morgan will then close out the week facing off against Boston, and while he'll have the same benefits that Ober will have when it comes to Boston's righty-lefty splits, Morgan will have the benefit of the fact that the Red Sox are hitting worse on the road than at home.
Morgan is going to have one great matchup and one rough matchup in Week 22. That Texas outing should provide the bulk of the value for Morgan this week, and it's possible that he could skate by and have a decent showing against Boston. Managers should consider doubling up on Morgan and Megill in Week 22.
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